# York Knights v St Helens — Super League Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 34 – 32 St Helens

_York Knights survive a scare against St Helens._

Half time: 16 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 34% / St Helens 66% · LNER Community Stadium · Sun, 02 Aug, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Jonathan Bennison (10' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Field (15'), Denive Balmforth (34' Tipped ⚡), Paul Vaughan (52'), Nikau Williams (55' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Field (70') · St Helens: Jake Davies (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Shane Wright (21'), Jack Welsby (30' Tipped ⚡), Jack Welsby (65' Tipped ⚡), Harry Robertson (75' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Douglas (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 66% | Lost |
| York Knights | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 July 2026, 10:15 pm · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:50 am_

York Knights 34–32 St Helens in Super League Round 21 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights turned the match with a rapid two-try burst early in the second half. Paul Vaughan and Nikau Williams crossed in quick succession at the 52nd and 55th minutes. This gave York a crucial lead that St Helens couldn’t quite overcome, resulting in a 34-32 victory at LNER Community Stadium.

The teams were locked at 16-all at half-time. York capitalised on momentum shifts that St Helens couldn't match. Jonathan Bennison's boot was vital, converting four of York's six tries. St Helens struggled with missed tackles, totalling 38 compared to York's 21, highlighting a cleaner defensive effort from the Knights.

St Helens had 53% of possession but couldn't convert this into a win. York's higher completion rate of 79% compared to St Helens' 78% helped minimise errors. York made nine errors to St Helens' ten. In a tight match, these small efficiencies were significant.

St Helens showed attacking strength with six line breaks to York's five. Jack Welsby scored twice, adding to tries from Shane Wright and Jake Davies, who opened the scoring in the second minute. Despite their line-breaking ability, St Helens couldn't break York's resolve. Oliver Field added two tries to Bennison's tally for York.

Field's final try at the 70th minute, followed by Bennison's conversion, seemed to secure the game at 34-22. However, St Helens fought back with tries from Harry Robertson and Jacob Douglas, bringing the score to 34-32 with only minutes left. Jackson Hastings' accurate conversions couldn't close the gap York had created after the break.

Before the game, Alphr's model predicted a 66% chance of a St Helens win with a margin of 1.9 points in their favour. York defied the model, with the game's total reaching 66 points, well above the predicted 41. York covered the 5.5-point line, achieving a rare victory against the odds.

Both teams entered the match with different recent forms. York had three wins in their last five games, while St Helens had two. Despite St Helens’ stronger positional ratings, particularly in the halves, York's form and efficiency were decisive. York's recent consistency, conceding an average of 21.6 points compared to St Helens' 25.6, was key.

In the end, York Knights secured a win against the odds with grit, resolve, and enough efficiency to make it count on the scoreboard. That's footy for you.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1,071 | Run metres | **1,287** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **39** | Tackle busts | 24 |
| 3 | Offloads | **4** |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 6 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 4/6 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 8 | Errors | 10 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

York Knights defied the model's 66% prediction for St Helens, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting St Helens by 1.9 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The game's 66 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 7/17 on this match. York Knights covered the 5.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (35/100) — penalties York Knights 9 · St Helens 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 65.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +5.5 — model probability 65.6% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 65.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 2 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 66% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 172 ELO points clear, 1490 to 1318. Form leans York Knights' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including ELO Difference, Rest Days and Backline Quality. The margin model has St Helens by 1.9, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back St Helens to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| 2.4pts | Avg Margin | -4.8pts |
| 1334.6m | Run Metres | 1245.2m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 302.0 | Tackles | 304.6 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L | 24.0 |
| St Helens | R16 W · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — St Helens lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | St Helens | 40 – 16 | York Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.3 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 5th there (1.55 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.85 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 11th there (2.55 conceded/game). Key man: Welsby, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.65/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.95/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.3/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.55/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.85/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.55/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.85/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 7th) | 1.1/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 18 | 11 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 99m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 89.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 53 | 38 · 37 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 433m/g | 469m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 14.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 83.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 16 | 17 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 312m/g | 319m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 92% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.3) -13% · Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.21) -14% · Wingers 0.83/g (lg 0.99) -16%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.6/g (lg 0.25) +140% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.11) +82% · Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.2) +75%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 2 | Andy Djeukessi | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Scott Galeano | CE | 10 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 7/9g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' |
| 5 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| 6 | Cody Hunter | 5/8 | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Paul McShane | HB | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 15' 70' |
| 13 | Ata Hingano | LK | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 5 in 20g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/10g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' |
| 15 | Paul Vaughan | INT | 5 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/9g | 8% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 16 | Jordan Thompson | INT | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Kieran Buchanan | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 16% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 65' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 3 | Tristan Sailor | CE | 6 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Davies | CE | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| 6 | Harry Robertson | 5/8 | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 49% ✓ Scored | 🏉 75' |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Burns | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jacob Host | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | William Keeley | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Alfie Sinclair | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Christopher Matagi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1318 · St Helens 1490 · ELO difference: 172 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 38.1% | St Helens |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 20.7% | York Knights |
| 3 | Rest Days | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 4.5% | St Helens |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 4.4% | St Helens |
| 6 | Halves Control | 4.2% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — St Helens predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:50 UTC (latest tip update)