# Leeds Rhinos v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 46 – 0 Toulouse Olympique

_Leeds Rhinos put Toulouse Olympique to the sword._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 63% / Toulouse Olympique 37% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 01 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Jake Connor (11' 1st Tipped ⚡), Mikolaj Oledzki (21'), Tom Holroyd (38'), James McDonnell (43' Tipped ⚡), Harry Newman (54' Tipped ⚡), Jake Connor (57' 1st Tipped ⚡), Brodie Croft (68' Tipped ⚡), Riley Lumb (76') · Toulouse Olympique: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 63% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.5 predicted → 46 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 July 2026, 07:32 am · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:50 am_

Leeds Rhinos 46–0 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 21 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos dominated Toulouse Olympique 46-0 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Jake Connor kicked things off with a try in the 11th minute, setting the tone for a one-sided affair. By half-time, Leeds had built an 18-0 lead. After the break, they continued to widen the gap, leaving Toulouse struggling to catch up.

Connor was on fire, not only scoring tries but also converting all six attempts. His precision kept the scoreboard ticking and piled pressure on Toulouse, who were pinned in their own half. Leeds controlled 57% of possession and territory, translating this into constant pressure. Mikolaj Oledzki and Tom Holroyd added first-half tries, while James McDonnell scored shortly after the interval.

Leeds were clinical in their execution. Their completion rate was 90%, compared to Toulouse's shaky 62%. This efficiency was key to their advantage. Leeds made only 7 errors, while Toulouse faltered with 14. When not scoring, Leeds camped in Toulouse's half, exploiting gaps and capitalising on mistakes.

Defensively, Leeds outmuscled Toulouse. They made 39 tackle busts to Toulouse's 19. When Toulouse had the ball, Leeds' tackle efficiency was a solid 92.8%, limiting any potential damage. Toulouse missed 42 tackles, double Leeds' 21, highlighting their defensive struggles.

Harry Newman, Brodie Croft, and Riley Lumb added late tries, underscoring Leeds' dominance. Leeds ran 1,256 metres compared to Toulouse's 796, breaking the line 8 times to Toulouse's 2. Leeds controlled the game, turning every opportunity into points.

Toulouse's higher-rated halves at 1082 couldn't execute on the field. Leeds' hooker, rated at 1092, applied pressure, keeping Toulouse on the back foot. With territory against them and numerous missed tackles, Toulouse couldn't mount a comeback.

Alphr's model predicted a Leeds win with a 63% probability, but the margin of victory was unexpected. The model's predicted margin of 8.5 points ballooned to 46. The total score prediction was close, with the actual score of 46 just over the predicted 44, and the under 56.5 call was correct. Despite the model's conservative outlook, Leeds capitalised on Toulouse's errors.

Leeds Rhinos showcased their strength with this commanding performance. For Toulouse, it's back to the drawing board. They'll need to regroup and prepare for their next challenge.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| **1,355** | Run metres | 814 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **38** | Tackle busts | 21 |
| **12** | Offloads | 10 |
| **12** | Errors | 14 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 0 |
| 7/8 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 12 | Errors | 14 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.5 but the actual margin was 46 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. Leeds Rhinos led 18–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 56.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 6 · Toulouse Olympique 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 62.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique +26.5 — model probability 62.7% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 62.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 56.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 9 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 63%, but Toulouse Olympique stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 309 ELO points clear, 1773 to 1463. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Toulouse Olympique.

On paper Toulouse Olympique shade it, ahead on 3 of 5 factors including Backline Quality, Rest Days and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Leeds Rhinos, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 37.6pts | Avg Score | 33.6pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Margin | 14.0pts |
| 1417.0m | Run Metres | 1174.8m |
| 7.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.6 |
| 258.4 | Tackles | 254.4 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L · R20 W | 37.6 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R16 L · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 L | 33.6 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Leeds Rhinos lead 2-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Toulouse Olympique | 24 – 48 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2022 | R19 | Toulouse Olympique | 20 – 6 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2022 | R10 | Leeds Rhinos | 25 – 14 | Toulouse Olympique |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 10th there (1.3 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 29 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 7th there (1.05 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.4/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.05/g (def 7th) | 1.15/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 3.05/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.35/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 6 | 7 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 148m/g | 114m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 90.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 49 · 32 | 43 · 53 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 327m/g | 552m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 18.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 6 | 23 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 348m/g | 291m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.5) +80% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.06) +67% · Wingers 1.6/g (lg 0.99) +62%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.19) -16% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/25g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Harry Newman | WG | 8 in 18g | 7/10g (0·2·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 15/31g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| 3 | Ned Mccormack | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Bird | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Riley Lumb | WG | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/10g | 32% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/23g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 57' |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 23 in 19g | 10/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·3·2·1) | 1/3g | 15/32g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/28g | 8% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 2/35g | 12% | — | 🏉 11' 57' |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 6 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/22g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 10 in 19g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·2) | 0/2g | 10/34g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 5/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 38' |
| 15 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Zak Lloyd | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/28g | 12% | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Polselli | FB | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 8 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Victor COLLIN | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Anthony Marion | HK | 1 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.75 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 13 in 18g | 9/10g (1·0·1·2·0·0·2·3·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Hugo Garrigues | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1773 · Toulouse Olympique 1463 · ELO difference: 309 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 43.4% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 21.9% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 8.1% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Rest Days | 4.3% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 3.3% | Toulouse Olympique |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:50 UTC (latest tip update)