# Hull KR v Bradford Bulls — Super League Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 40 – 16 Bradford Bulls

_Hull KR outfox Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 57% / Bradford Bulls 43% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sat, 01 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Joe Burgess (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Broadbent (12'), Tyrone May (25' Tipped ⚡), Joe Burgess (46' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jez Litten (52'), Tom Davies (55' Tipped ⚡), Elliot Minchella (75') · Bradford Bulls: Guy Armitage (8'), Connor Wynne (33' Tipped ⚡), Andy Ackers (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 57% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.9 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Bradford Bulls Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 July 2026, 07:32 am · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:50 am_

Hull KR 40–16 Bradford Bulls in Super League Round 21 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bradford Bulls kept it tidy, but Hull KR's firepower was too much. The Bulls had an 84% completion rate and only five errors, compared to Hull KR's eleven. Guy Armitage's try matched Joe Burgess's early score, but that was the last time they were level. The opening minutes were competitive, but Hull KR soon took control.

Bradford's attack faltered, and their defence couldn't contain Hull KR's potent offence. Their tackle efficiency was slightly better at 89.5%, but they missed 41 tackles, a glaring issue against Hull KR. With only 46% territory, the Bulls were often on the back foot, and the scoreboard showed it.

Hull KR's win was built on aggressive running. They racked up 1,558 run metres to the Bulls' 1,026. Despite Bradford's positional strength in the halves and hooker, it didn't translate on the field. Hull KR's nine line breaks to Bradford's two were crucial. Once they found gaps, they exploited them, and the points piled up.

Joe Burgess was outstanding, scoring twice and opening the game just four minutes in. Jack Broadbent, Tyrone May, Jez Litten, Tom Davies, and Elliot Minchella also scored. Burgess's second try after half-time extended the lead, and Hull KR never looked back. They added three more tries in quick succession in the second half.

The final score was more one-sided than expected. Our model had Hull KR as favourites with a 57% probability, predicting a closer margin of 7.9 points. The actual 24-point margin showed Hull KR's ability to capitalise on chances, something Bradford couldn't do despite their efficient set completions.

Bradford crossed the line three times, with Connor Wynne and Andy Ackers adding to Armitage's effort. But Hull KR's defence tightened after the initial exchanges. Hull KR's 39 tackle busts compared to Bradford's 34 showed that while the Bulls had structures, they couldn't stick tackles when it mattered.

Discipline was fairly even, with Hull KR conceding four penalties to Bradford's five. This slight edge perhaps gave Hull KR more freedom to power through the middle and finish stronger, especially in the second half.

Hull KR's positional strength ratings in the forwards and backs were lower than Bradford's, yet they outperformed expectations. This match didn't just follow the stat sheet; it showed how gameplay can defy expectations. It's a reminder that effort and execution on the day decide the scoreboard.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| **1,622** | Run metres | 1,077 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **40** | Tackle busts | 34 |
| 10 | Offloads | 10 |
| 11 | Errors | **6** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 11 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.9 but the actual margin was 24 points. Hull KR led 16–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 6/17 on this match. Bradford Bulls covered the 32.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (9/100) — penalties Hull KR 4 · Bradford Bulls 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 57.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bradford Bulls +32.5 — model probability 57.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 57.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 8 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 57%, but Bradford Bulls stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 296 ELO points clear, 1638 to 1342. Form leans Hull KR's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Bradford Bulls.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Hull KR by 7.9, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 34.4pts |
| -6.8pts | Avg Margin | -18.4pts |
| 1123.2m | Run Metres | 1057.2m |
| 2.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.2 |
| 325.6 | Tackles | 336.6 |
| 13.4 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R16 L · R17 W · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W | 17.2 |
| Bradford Bulls | R16 L · R17 L · R18 W · R19 L · R20 L | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Hull KR lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Bradford Bulls | 12 – 48 | Hull KR |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.74 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 14th there (2.7 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.47 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.26/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.47/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.15/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 2.74/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.7/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.89/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.05/g (def 6th) | 0.6/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 6 | 9 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 142m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 92.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 39 · 23 | 36 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 606m/g | 500m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.1/g | 13.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 13 | 10 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 299m/g | 288m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 94.1% |

**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.25/g (lg 0.06) +317% · Five-Eighths 0.4/g (lg 0.2) +100% · 2nd Rows 0.55/g (lg 0.3) +83%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.3) -10% · Centres 0.32/g (lg 0.5) -36% · Wingers 0.6/g (lg 0.99) -39%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 13/28g | 32% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 9 in 19g | 4/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 14/24g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 13/33g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 7/18g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 14 in 14g | 11/10g (3·2·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 28/27g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.42 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 46' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 8/32g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| 7 | Ryan Hampshire | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Dean Hadley | PR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/49g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 11/57g | 22% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/35g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 14/41g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/56g | 4% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/45g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/15g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Karl Lawton | INT | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 18% | 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 33' |
| 3 | Luke Hooley | CE | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 4 | Guy Armitage | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 12 in 18g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 8/15g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Christopher Atkin | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Riley Dean | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $29.00 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $126.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 10 | William Gardiner | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Phoenix Steinwede | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Doyle | INT | no games | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Gill | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Alfie Leake | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Loghan Lewis | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1638 · Bradford Bulls 1342 · ELO difference: 296 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 34.9% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 16.5% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Rest Days | 14.4% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 5.3% | Bradford Bulls |
| 5 | Backline Quality | 3.1% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 3.1% | Bradford Bulls |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:50 UTC (latest tip update)