# Catalans Dragons v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 12 – 32 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity see off Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 28% / Wakefield Trinity 72% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 02 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Toby Sexton (24'), Matthieu Laguerre (56') · Wakefield Trinity: Jake Trueman (6' 1st), Cameron Scott (15' Tipped ⚡), Caleb Uele (50'), Isaiah Vagana (62'), Isaiah Vagana (68'), Cameron Scott (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 72% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 21.8 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 July 2026, 10:15 pm · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:50 am_

Catalans Dragons 12–32 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 21 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Caleb Uele’s try in the 50th minute was the turning point for Wakefield Trinity against Catalans Dragons. Leading by a narrow 10–6 margin at half-time, Wakefield Trinity opened up the match in the second half. They finished with a commanding 32–12 victory at Stade Gilbert Brutus. It was a performance marked by territorial control and clinical finishing.

Wakefield Trinity’s edge was clear from the start, with Jake Trueman setting the tone early. They held 56% of possession and dominated 64% of the territory. Catalans Dragons struggled to match this, managing only 44% possession. Wakefield's field control allowed them to set up more attacking plays, which they capitalised on throughout the match.

By the time Uele crossed the line, Wakefield had already shown glimpses of their attacking strength. Their completion rate was 79%, a step up from Catalans’ 69%. When you give a side like Wakefield that sort of platform, they’re going to run over you. They did just that, outscoring Catalans in the second half with a series of tries.

Jack Sinfield's conversions added to the Wakefield tally, reinforcing each try with precision from the tee. Cameron Scott also had a standout performance, grabbing two tries. With eight line breaks and 40 tackle busts, Wakefield played with sharpness and intent that eluded the Dragons.

Catalans Dragons had their moments, responding through Toby Sexton and Matthieu Laguerre, but they were mostly chasing the game. Their defensive line was frequently breached, and with 40 missed tackles, it’s no wonder Wakefield found so much joy. Errors were identical for both teams at 12, but discipline highlighted the gap. Wakefield Trinity conceded just one penalty, compared to Catalans’ six. This discipline mismatch, paired with Catalans' inability to capitalise on opportunities, painted a clear picture of why Wakefield maintained their grip on the match.

Despite Catalans backing their backs to make an impact, the superiority of Wakefield's forward pack, rated 925 against Catalans' 823, was crucial in gaining metres and laying the foundation for scoring opportunities. Catalans’ halves, rated 600 compared to Wakefield’s 859, struggled to exert any control. This was reaffirmed by the run metres stats: Wakefield amassed 1,506 metres compared to Catalans’ 953.

Alphr’s pre-game model was on point. Predicting a Wakefield Trinity win with a 72% probability, the model projected a Wakefield victory by 21.8 points. In the end, the 20-point margin wasn’t far off. The predicted combined total of 43 was close to the actual scoreline of 44. It was a job well done from the model’s perspective, balancing accuracy with insights grounded in real numbers.

In the grand scheme, Wakefield’s form and positional strength told the story. They had won their last five games coming into this. For the Dragons, it was another tough notice in a string of challenging encounters. The result was a testament to past form, and the numbers didn’t lie.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 978 | Run metres | **1,543** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 32 | Tackle busts | **46** |
| 11 | Offloads | **17** |
| 13 | Errors | **12** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **1** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 6 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 4/6 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 1 |
| 13 | Errors | 12 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wakefield Trinity by 21.8 vs the actual margin of 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. Wakefield Trinity led 6–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 5/17 on this match. Wakefield Trinity covered the 7.5-point line. The 13-24 margin band call landed. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (47/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 6 · Wakefield Trinity 1.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 72.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity -7.5 — model probability 72.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 13-24 — model probability 72.1% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 22 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 72% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 316 ELO points clear, 1691 to 1375. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 5 of 5 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Halves Control. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 21.8, with the two sides combining for about 43. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 35.0pts |
| 31.2pts | Avg Conceded | 12.2pts |
| -16.0pts | Avg Margin | 22.8pts |
| 1019.0m | Run Metres | 1475.4m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 7.6 |
| 317.2 | Tackles | 288.0 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 L · R20 W | 15.2 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W · R20 W | 35.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Wakefield Trinity | 58 – 10 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2025 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 44 – 6 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2025 | R9 | Catalans Dragons | 24 – 20 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2023 | R25 | Wakefield Trinity | 10 – 18 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2023 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 36 – 6 | Wakefield Trinity |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 10th-ranked left edge attack (0.95 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Faataape, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.65 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 8th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.95/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) | 1.65/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1.65/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.65/g (def 12th (weak)) | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.95/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 19 | 9 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 101m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 90.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 48 | 55 · 37 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 501m/g | 450m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.8/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.9% | 85.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 17 | 14 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 253m/g | 366m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 8.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 94.1% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32% · Centres 0.56/g (lg 0.5) +12%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.3/g (lg 0.21) +43% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/9g | 41% | 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 2/17g | 15% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Clement Martin | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 13% | — | — |
| 4 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 2/15g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·0·2·0·2) | 7/11g | 13/20g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 5 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 3/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/9g | 37% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 7% | — | — |
| 9 | Ugo Tison | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Franck Maria | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Matthieu Laguerre | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/26g | 14% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/9g | 27% | 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/58g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 3/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jayden Myers | WG | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 7 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' 76' |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 15 in 12g | 13/10g (0·4·0·1·2·1·2·0·1·2) | 9/12g | 21/26g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 85% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 8 | Tray Lolesio | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 62' 68' |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jazz Tevaga | INT | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 50' |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 8 in 16g | 7/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 3/3g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1375 · Wakefield Trinity 1691 · ELO difference: 316 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 49.3% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 22.7% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Halves Control | 9.2% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Rest Days | 6.1% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 4.3% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 22 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:50 UTC (latest tip update)