# Castleford Tigers v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 18 – 48 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves put Castleford Tigers to the sword._

Half time: 18 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 38% / Warrington Wolves 62% · The OneBore Stadium · Sun, 02 Aug, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Daejarn Asi (12'), Tylor Sharpe (15'), Phoenix Laulu-Togaga'e (20') · Warrington Wolves: Adam Holroyd (7' 1st), Matty Ashton (25' Tipped ⚡), Toby King (31'), Toafofoa Sipley (35'), James Harrison (44' Tipped ⚡), Leon Hayes (48'), Matty Ashton (53' Tipped ⚡), Ben Currie (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 62% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.6 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 July 2026, 10:15 pm · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:50 am_

Castleford Tigers 18–48 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 21 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves overran Castleford Tigers 48–18 at The OneBore Stadium. The Wolves led 24–18 at half-time and pulled away in the second half. By the time Ben Currie crossed in the 69th minute, the game was beyond Castleford's reach.

Adam Holroyd opened the scoring for Warrington in the seventh minute. Castleford responded quickly. Tries from Daejarn Asi, Tylor Sharpe, and Phoenix Laulu-Togaga'e gave them a 16–6 lead by the 22nd minute. However, Warrington struck back. Matty Ashton, Toby King, and Toafofoa Sipley added tries, putting Warrington ahead 24–18 by the break.

In the second half, Warrington was relentless. James Harrison extended the lead to 30–18 shortly after the restart. By the 54th minute, another try from Ashton had the Wolves sitting on 42 points. Leon Hayes and Ben Currie added the finishing touches, leaving Castleford trailing.

The stats highlighted Warrington's edge. They had 51% possession and territory, slightly more than Castleford. Their attack was sharper, with 8 line breaks to Castleford's 4. Warrington completed fewer sets than Castleford's 83%, but they made their chances count.

Castleford’s discipline was lacking. They conceded 8 penalties to Warrington's 5, and their tackling efficiency was slightly lower at 93.3% compared to Warrington's 93.9%. Despite fewer errors, they couldn’t match Warrington’s sharpness. Ewan Irwin's conversions (7 out of 8) kept the scoreboard ticking for the Wolves. Castleford’s Tom Weaver managed 3 from 3 conversions and a penalty, but it was not enough.

Warrington’s forward pack was stronger pre-match, with a rating of 918 to Castleford's 772. This strength showed in run metres, where they outpaced Castleford by over 200 metres. Their backs and halves also outperformed, evident in line breaks and metres per run. Warrington averaged 8.1 metres per run, overshadowing Castleford's 7.3 metres.

Both teams entered the match with three losses in their last five games. Warrington’s recent averages showed a team better at scoring and defending, and it played out on the field. Alphr's model had Warrington as favourites with a 62% win probability, but the final margin of 30 points was much larger than the expected 9.6.

In the end, it was Warrington's day. A clinical display with power running and smart playmaking saw them overpower Castleford. An emphatic win.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1,218 | Run metres | **1,472** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 21 | Tackle busts | **24** |
| **11** | Offloads | 6 |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 8 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 8/8 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 8 | Errors | 10 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.6 but the actual margin was 30 points. The game's 66 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 44. Warrington Wolves led 18–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 3/17 on this match. Warrington Wolves covered the 8.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (19/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 8 · Warrington Wolves 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 61.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves -8.5 — model probability 61.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 61.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 10 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 62%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 219 ELO points clear, 1584 to 1366. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Recent Win Rate, ELO Difference and Halves Control. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 9.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 35.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| -18.0pts | Avg Margin | -4.4pts |
| 1087.0m | Run Metres | 1263.2m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 308.4 | Tackles | 336.8 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L | 17.6 |
| Warrington Wolves | R16 W · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W · R20 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Warrington Wolves | 72 – 6 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2025 | R19 | Castleford Tigers | 20 – 14 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R13 | Warrington Wolves | 34 – 24 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2024 | R23 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 28 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2024 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 30 – 8 | Castleford Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 4th there (1.37 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.74 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.95 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.68/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.42/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.7/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.95/g (def 10th) | 2.74/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.45/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.05/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.89/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 16 | 8 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 87m/g | 171m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 90.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 59 | 29 · 37 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 371m/g | 375m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 11.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.9% | 85.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 20 | 11 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 270m/g | 302m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.6% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.19) +42% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Wingers 0.91/g (lg 1) -9%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.06) +133% · Wingers 1.55/g (lg 1) +55% · 2nd Rows 0.45/g (lg 0.3) +50%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Louis Senior | WG | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Alexander Mellor | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tylor Sharpe | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 15' |
| 6 | Thomas Weaver | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/12g | 18% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 8 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 2/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 4/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Brown | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 7% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/13g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | George Hirst | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Webster | FB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 11 in 19g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/20g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 53' |
| 6 | Ewan Irwin | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Leon Hayes | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 8 | Luke Thomas | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/15g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 12 | James Harrison | 2R | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/26g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 16 | Joe Philbin | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/19g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Cai Taylor-Wray | INT | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1366 · Warrington Wolves 1584 · ELO difference: 219 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 44.4% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 23.6% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Halves Control | 13.1% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 4.9% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Rest Days | 4.4% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Backline Quality | 2.8% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:50 UTC (latest tip update)