# Wigan Warriors v St Helens — Super League Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 38 – 16 St Helens

_Wigan Warriors go to war with St Helens._

Half time: 18 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 76% / St Helens 24% · The Brick Community Stadium · Sat, 25 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Bevan French (9' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (20' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (25' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Partington (43'), Oliver Partington (58'), Adam Keighran (62') · St Helens: Jack Welsby (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jacob Douglas (14'), Lewis Murphy (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 76% | Won |
| St Helens | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.8 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 July 2026, 08:20 am · Last updated: 19 Oct 2026, 03:18 am_

Wigan Warriors 38–16 St Helens in Super League Round 20 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors took control at The Brick Community Stadium, defeating St Helens 38–16. The match began with St Helens taking an early lead through Jack Welsby’s try in the fourth minute, followed by a conversion from Jackson Hastings, setting the score at 6-0. Wigan quickly responded, with Bevan French scoring a try just five minutes later, and Adam Keighran converting to level the score at 6-6.

The first half saw a back-and-forth battle. St Helens regained the lead with a try by Jacob Douglas, but Wigan answered with two tries from Zach Eckersley, both converted by Keighran. This gave Wigan an 18-12 lead at half-time.

The second half was dominated by Wigan. Oliver Partington scored a try just two minutes in, and Keighran added a penalty goal by the 48th minute, extending the lead to 26-12. Partington and Keighran each scored again, with Keighran converting both tries, pushing the score to 38-12. St Helens managed a late try by Lewis Murphy, but it was too little, too late.

Wigan held 57% of possession and had a territorial advantage. They ran for 1,434 metres compared to St Helens' 968, showing their dominance in gaining ground. Wigan also excelled in tackle busts, with 49 to St Helens' 26, indicating their aggressive forward play.

St Helens completed their sets at 87% and made fewer errors, with only four compared to Wigan's eight. However, their defence struggled, missing 49 tackles against Wigan's 26. Wigan's tackle efficiency was 89.3%, reflecting their solid defensive performance.

Before the match, our model predicted a Wigan win with a 76% probability and a margin of 10.8 points. The actual margin of 22 points exceeded expectations, but the model correctly anticipated Wigan's ability to pull away. Wigan's positional strength, particularly in the hooker role, contributed to their success.

Wigan came into the match on a five-game winning streak, averaging 32.4 points per game. St Helens, with three wins in their last five matches, struggled to match Wigan's form. The Warriors' performance reinforced their strong standing in the league, showcasing their ability to decisively separate from opponents in the second half.

The final score of 38–16 highlighted Wigan’s capacity to not only secure victory but to do so convincingly. St Helens, despite their early efforts, couldn't keep pace as Wigan surged ahead. The match underscored the Warriors' cohesive team play and their effective use of scoreboard pressure to maintain control.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,511** | Run metres | 984 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **49** | Tackle busts | 26 |
| **8** | Offloads | 5 |
| 8 | Errors | **5** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 7/8 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 8 | Errors | 5 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 10.8 was reasonable against the actual 22-point result. Wigan Warriors led 18–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 5/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (6/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 7 · St Helens 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 75.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens +20.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 76% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 211 ELO points clear, 1718 to 1507. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for St Helens.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 10.8, with the two sides combining for about 40. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 32.4pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 1302.8m | Run Metres | 1331.4m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 6.2 |
| 289.2 | Tackles | 291.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W | 32.4 |
| St Helens | R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Wigan Warriors | 16 – 14 | St Helens | Wigan Warriors 53% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | St Helens | 34 – 24 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 58% ✗ |
| 2025 | R25 | St Helens | 4 – 18 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Wigan Warriors | 24 – 14 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 12 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.79 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 9th there (1.32 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.89 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (1.68 conceded/game). Key man: Welsby, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.68/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.95/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.53/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.95/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.68/g (def 6th) | 1.89/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.58/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.79/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.11/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 12 | 11 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 89m/g | 203m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 89.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 67 · 31 | 35 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 505m/g | 468m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.2/g | 14.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.1% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 11 | 17 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 397m/g | 324m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 92.3% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.17/g (lg 0.2) -15% · Wingers 0.82/g (lg 0.99) -17% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.29) -17%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.19) -11% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.29) -14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 12 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·3·0·1·0) | 8/10g | 43/52g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 19 in 18g | 10/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·3) | 3/6g | 17/31g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 25' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 9 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 10/31g | 40% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 22/46g | 42% | — | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 7/17g | 50/68g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 5 in 7g | 9/10g (2·2·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 7/9g | 54/49g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 14/69g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 6/52g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/16g | 0/32g | 8% | — | 🏉 43' 58' |
| 12 | Kaide Ellis | 2R | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/56g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Taylor Kerr | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 7% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Walters | INT | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 6/27g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Noah Hodkinson | INT | 13 in 12g | 12/10g (0·0·0·3·1·0·0·4·3·1) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Shea connor | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 7/14g | 1/5g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| 2 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 3 | Tristan Sailor | CE | 6 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Davies | CE | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $10.00 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $56.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/9g | 25% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 6 | Harry Robertson | 5/8 | 5 in 17g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 4/16g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Host | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Burns | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/3g | 2/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Evans | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Alfie Sinclair | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1718 · St Helens 1507 · ELO difference: 211 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r20-wigan-warriors-v-st-helens
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-18 16:18 UTC (latest tip update)