# Wakefield Trinity v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 52 – 14 Castleford Tigers

_Wakefield Trinity outlast Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 18 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 67% / Castleford Tigers 33% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sat, 25 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Matty Storton (0' 1st), Caius Faatili (29' Tipped ⚡), Max Jowitt (37'), Isaiah Vagana (41'), Tom Johnstone (46' Tipped ⚡), Tom Johnstone (49' Tipped ⚡), Corey Hall (54'), Lachlan Walmsley (62' Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Walmsley (67' Tipped ⚡) · Castleford Tigers: Tom Weaver (15'), Jason Qareqare (24' Tipped ⚡), Jason Qareqare (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 67% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.4 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 July 2026, 08:20 am · Last updated: 19 Oct 2026, 03:18 am_

Wakefield Trinity 52–14 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 20 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity's discipline and ball control outclassed Castleford Tigers' raw ambition at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Wakefield's 64% possession allowed them to dictate the game, leading to a decisive 52-14 victory. They were ahead 18-10 at half-time and dominated the second half.

Castleford Tigers, despite having a slight edge in territory at 51%, couldn't convert it into points. Wakefield's 1,526 run metres dwarfed Castleford's 958, highlighting the difference in execution. Castleford's missed tackles and errors compounded their problems, allowing Wakefield to maintain pressure.

Matty Storton set the tone with a try in the first minute. Wakefield's ability to break Castleford's line was evident, with eight line breaks to Castleford's four. Tom Johnstone and Lachlan Walmsley each scored twice, exploiting gaps in Castleford's defence. Max Jowitt was reliable with the boot, converting seven of nine tries.

Wakefield's physical dominance was clear with 33 tackle busts compared to Castleford's 19. Their controlled play, despite fewer offloads than Castleford's nine, kept them in command. Wakefield's tactical patience and effective ball movement were key to their success.

Castleford had moments of promise. Tom Weaver's early try and conversion levelled the scores, and Jason Qareqare's two tries showed their attacking potential. However, these moments were overshadowed by 33 missed tackles, making their task difficult.

Alphr's model predicted a Wakefield win but underestimated the margin. The expected 10.4-point margin was eclipsed by the actual 38-point difference. The game produced 66 points, exceeding the predicted total of 44. While the model had a 67% probability of a Wakefield win, the scale of the victory was unexpected.

Wakefield's recent form and higher ratings made them favourites. Their forwards, rated at 925, were expected to outperform Castleford's at 759. With five consecutive wins compared to Castleford's single win in their last five, the result was anticipated, though the manner of victory was striking.

Ultimately, Wakefield's patience and control prevailed. They balanced safety with aggression, while Castleford's ambition left them vulnerable. Possession isn't just about holding the ball; it's about effective use. Wakefield Trinity demonstrated this with precision.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,571** | Run metres | 1,016 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **38** | Tackle busts | 26 |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 3 |
| 8/9 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| 1 | Send Offs | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.4 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 66 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 44. Wakefield Trinity led 18–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 5/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (3/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 3 · Castleford Tigers 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +15.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 10 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 67% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 295 ELO points clear, 1677 to 1381. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Castleford Tigers.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 10.4, with the two sides combining for about 44. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 31.8pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 11.4pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Margin | -6.8pts |
| 1452.6m | Run Metres | 1219.8m |
| 7.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 286.2 | Tackles | 307.0 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W | 31.8 |
| Castleford Tigers | R15 W · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 W | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 48 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity 51% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 34 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 63% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 26 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 32 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Wakefield Trinity | 13 – 12 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Pratt, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.05 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 6th there (0.95 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.53/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.95/g (def 6th) | 1.05/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.37/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.26/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.74/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.95/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1.42/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.47/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 5 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 136m/g | 87m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 91% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 35 | 27 · 54 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 445m/g | 379m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 10.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 10 | 7 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 366m/g | 269m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.1% | 94.7% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.06) +133% · Wingers 1.52/g (lg 0.99) +54% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.06) +50% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.25) +36% · Centres 0.57/g (lg 0.49) +16%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 3/3g | 6/8g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' 67' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 7 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/9g | 6/17g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/16g | 14% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 13 in 11g | 13/10g (2·0·4·0·1·2·1·2·0·1) | 14/18g | 10/16g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' 49' |
| 6 | Max Jowitt | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 5/16g | 30% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 3/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/20g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/16g | 2% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 3/13g | 12% | — | 🏉 0' |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 33% | — | — |
| 14 | Jay Pitts | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/14g | 2/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 7 in 15g | 7/10g (1·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 9/19g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 2/18g | 14% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 3 | Alexander Mellor | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 8 in 16g | 7/10g (2·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jason Qareqare | WG | 16 in 19g | 12/10g (0·1·3·1·1·2·1·1·0·2) | 3/5g | 2/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 76' |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Stimson | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Ashton Golding | 2R | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack Brown | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1677 · Castleford Tigers 1381 · ELO difference: 295 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-18 16:18 UTC (latest tip update)