# Toulouse Olympique v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 16 – 18 Catalans Dragons

_Catalans Dragons hold off a fast-finishing Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 2 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 52% / Catalans Dragons 48% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sun, 26 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Romeo Tropis (49'), Joe Cator (79') · Catalans Dragons: Tommy Makinson (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet (38'), Tommy Makinson (67' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 52% | Lost |
| Catalans Dragons | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 July 2026, 10:55 am · Last updated: 19 Oct 2026, 03:18 am_

Toulouse Olympique 16–18 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 20 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Toulouse Olympique tipped to win by 3.9 points, but Catalans Dragons had other ideas, edging out an 18-16 victory. The model's expectations were clear: Toulouse had the ratings and recent form on their side. They held a 149-point ELO advantage and had won three of their last five matches, compared to Catalans' single win. Yet, the Dragons defied these predictions.

Catalans Dragons led 12-2 at half-time, capitalising on Toulouse's errors and showcasing sharp play from Tommy Makinson and Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet. Makinson opened the scoring 13 minutes in, with Aispuro-Bichet converting and later scoring a try himself. This gave the Dragons a solid lead at the break, contrary to the model's expectations, which had favoured Toulouse's attacking prowess.

In the second half, Toulouse fought back. Romeo Tropis crossed the line in the 49th minute, narrowing the score to 12-8 after Jake Shorrocks' conversion. However, the Dragons responded with another try from Makinson, keeping their lead intact. Toulouse continued to push, and when Joe Cator scored in the 79th minute, followed by another Shorrocks conversion, they were back in the game at 16-18. But the Dragons had done enough.

Catalans Dragons held 52% of possession and 57% of territory, indicating their control throughout the match. Despite Toulouse completing their sets at a higher rate of 71%, the Dragons' possession and territory advantage were crucial. Both teams were evenly matched in line breaks, tackle busts, and offloads, but Toulouse's three additional errors proved costly.

Discipline was another factor. Catalans conceded two more penalties than Toulouse, yet their timing with the ball was more effective. Both teams missed 34 tackles, but the Dragons' slightly better defensive efficiency at 90% compared to Toulouse's 89.4% provided a thin edge in this tight contest.

Pre-match ratings favoured Toulouse in the halves and hooker positions, but they couldn't translate this into dominance on the field. Toulouse's backs were rated higher, yet it was Makinson's two tries for the Dragons' backline that made the difference.

Alphr's pre-match prediction was close, giving Toulouse a 52% win probability and setting the total combined score at 39. The actual combined score was 34, reflecting the tight nature of the game. In the end, the Dragons held on and covered the line, proving that sometimes the game doesn't follow the script.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,045** | Run metres | 1,044 |
| 2 | Line breaks | 2 |
| 31 | Tackle busts | **38** |
| 4 | Offloads | **5** |
| 13 | Errors | **10** |
| **8** | Penalties conceded | 10 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 4/4 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 10 |
| 13 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Catalans Dragons defied the model's 52% prediction for Toulouse Olympique, a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 34, within 5 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. Catalans Dragons covered the 4.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (41/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 8 · Catalans Dragons 10.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Toulouse Olympique to win — model probability 52.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons +4.5 — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Toulouse Olympique 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Toulouse Olympique by 4 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Toulouse Olympique and Catalans Dragons. The model can't split them, landing on Toulouse Olympique at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Toulouse Olympique sit 150 ELO points clear, 1494 to 1345. Form leans Toulouse Olympique's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Catalans Dragons.

Toulouse Olympique own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Toulouse Olympique by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 39. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 34.0pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 32.8pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Margin | -14.4pts |
| 1211.8m | Run Metres | 1045.4m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 274.6 | Tackles | 309.6 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R15 L · R16 L · R17 W · R18 W · R19 W | 34.0 |
| Catalans Dragons | R15 W · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 L | 18.4 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Catalans Dragons | 18 – 60 | Toulouse Olympique | Catalans Dragons 64% ✗ |
| 2026 | R7 | Catalans Dragons | 33 – 26 | Toulouse Olympique | Catalans Dragons 64% ✓ |
| 2022 | R25 | Toulouse Olympique | 14 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2022 | R8 | Catalans Dragons | 18 – 10 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.32 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.32 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 10th-ranked left edge attack (0.89 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 12th there (1.47 conceded/game). Key man: Faataape, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.16/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.47/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.89/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.21/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.37/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.68/g (def 7th) | 1.68/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.74/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.32/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.32/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 8 | 16 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 116m/g | 102m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 89.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 42 · 50 | 37 · 47 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 559m/g | 502m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.5/g | 15.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 81.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 11 | 11 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 290m/g | 251m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 92% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.3/g (lg 0.2) +50% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.49) +94% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.06) +83% · Wingers 1.58/g (lg 1) +58%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 12 in 16g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·0·1) | 3/2g | 4/6g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/1g | 2/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 57% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 29% | — | — |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 43% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 8 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/7g | 35% | — | — |
| 6 | Thomas Lacans | 5/8 | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/7g | 25% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Shorrocks | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Anthony Marion | HK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/16g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $34.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 13 in 17g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·2·3·0) | 5/2g | 2/11g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 4% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 14 | Hugo Garrigues | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Louis Grossemy | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Clement Martin | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 3/3g | 2/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' 67' |
| 6 | Toby Sexton | 5/8 | 7 in 19g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| 7 | Lewis Dodd | HB | 5 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 9 | Ugo Tison | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Franck Maria | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Edenn Rogers-Smith | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1494 · Catalans Dragons 1345 · ELO difference: 150 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Toulouse Olympique |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-18 16:18 UTC (latest tip update)