# Leeds Rhinos v Bradford Bulls — Super League Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 42 – 12 Bradford Bulls

_Leeds Rhinos trample Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 68% / Bradford Bulls 32% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Mon, 27 July, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: James McDonnell (23' Tipped ⚡), James McDonnell (30' Tipped ⚡), Jarrod O'Connor (37'), Tom Holroyd (49'), Brodie Croft (52' Tipped ⚡), Cooper Jenkins (60'), Kallum Watkins (74') · Bradford Bulls: Guy Armitage (8' 1st), Ethan Ryan (45' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 68% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.5 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Bradford Bulls Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 July 2026, 10:03 pm · Last updated: 19 Oct 2026, 03:18 am_

Leeds Rhinos 42–12 Bradford Bulls in Super League Round 20 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model was confident, expecting a Leeds Rhinos win with a 68% probability. It foresaw the Rhinos edging out by 8.5 points in what was meant to be a closer tussle. Instead, the Rhinos barrelled past the Bradford Bulls with a 42-12 romp at AMT Headingley Stadium, stretching that predicted margin to a formidable 30 points. There was a glimmer of accuracy with the combined total score prediction, just two points shy of the actual 54 scored.

The Bulls made the initial ripples. Guy Armitage's try in the 8th minute, converted by Luke Hooley, put them 6-0 up. It was short-lived. By the 23rd minute, Leeds had levelled through James McDonnell's try and Jake Connor's conversion. Leeds Rhinos then pushed ahead to an 18-6 lead by half-time, with McDonnell doubling up and Jarrod O'Connor also crossing the line. Connor was on target each time.

Leeds Rhinos returned from the break with renewed vigour. Bradford's Ethan Ryan briefly cut the gap to 18-12, only for Leeds to unravel any Bulls' hope. In quick succession, Tom Holroyd and Brodie Croft added to Leeds' tally, effectively closing out the game by the 53rd minute. They didn't stop there. The dominant display was further punctuated with tries from Cooper Jenkins and Kallum Watkins.

The numbers painted a clear picture of Leeds' dominance. Holding 55% of possession and controlling 58% of territory, the Rhinos were far more effective in attack. They made 7 line breaks to the Bulls' 2 and bust 36 tackles compared to 18. With metres per run at 6.7 to Bradford's 5.3, Leeds simply covered more ground. Bradford had been predicted to have a stronger forward pack, but it didn't translate on the day.

For all the errors Leeds committed, 16 compared to Bradford's 13, they made up for it with resilience. Their 93.3% tackle efficiency overshadowed the Bulls' 89.3%, and importantly, the Rhinos missed only 18 tackles against the Bulls' 36. When you miss half the tackles your opponents do, you're asking for trouble.

Penalties were slightly in Leeds' favour, conceding 5 to Bradford's 7. The Bulls were cleaner, completing their sets at a 70% rate to Leeds' 68%, but it didn’t compensate for their frailties in defence.

The pre-match model suggested Leeds, with a higher ELO rating of 1766 compared to Bradford's 1349, would have the upper hand, albeit not by this much. Form-wise, Leeds came in strong, with a last-five-game record of WWWWL against Bradford's LLLWL. Their recent averages had Leeds with a 21.6 point margin on past results, which the Bulls struggled to bridge.

In the end, it wasn't just the Rhinos' backline superiority that shone. Their halves, led by the incisive Brodie Croft, orchestrated much of the play that left the Bulls playing catch-up. This one was a clinic in turning chances into points. The Bulls didn't just lose a match at Headingley, they were given a lesson.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| **1,298** | Run metres | 895 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **36** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| **17** | Offloads | 10 |
| 16 | Errors | **13** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 2 |
| 7/7 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 16 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.5 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 52 was close to the actual 54, within 2 points. Leeds Rhinos led 18–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 6/17 on this match. Bradford Bulls covered the 32.5-point line. The under 56.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 5 · Bradford Bulls 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 67.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bradford Bulls +32.5 — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 56.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 9 · Predicted total: 52

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 68% to see off Bradford Bulls. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 417 ELO points clear, 1766 to 1349. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Bradford Bulls.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 52. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 36.0pts | Avg Score | 18.4pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Conceded | 32.8pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Margin | -14.4pts |
| 1452.0m | Run Metres | 1088.4m |
| 6.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 268.6 | Tackles | 336.0 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W · R19 L | 36.0 |
| Bradford Bulls | R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 W · R19 L | 18.4 |

### H2H History (Last 2) — Leeds Rhinos lead 2-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Leeds Rhinos | 50 – 16 | Bradford Bulls | Leeds Rhinos 72% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Bradford Bulls | 12 – 24 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 57% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.53 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 8th there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 29 tries in that channel this season.
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.42/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 1.11/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.95/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.26/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.32/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.58/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 2.53/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.47/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.63/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 6 | 9 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 146m/g | 148m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 92.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 49 · 30 | 34 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 326m/g | 503m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.8/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 84.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 6 | 10 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 347m/g | 289m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 94.2% |

**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.21/g (lg 0.06) +250% · Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.2) +110% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.25) +68%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.19) -16% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/25g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 29 in 18g | 15/10g (3·1·1·1·2·3·2·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 16/8g | 86% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.29 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $5.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 8 in 17g | 7/10g (0·0·2·1·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 15/30g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 60% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jack Bird | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/4g | 33% | — | — |
| 5 | Alfie Edgell | WG | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/19g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 66% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/22g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 22 in 18g | 11/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·3·2) | 1/2g | 14/31g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/27g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/34g | 8% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 5 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/21g | 10% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 11 | Ben Littlewood | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/2g | 8/33g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 30' |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 1 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/20g | 10% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 14 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Nicholson-watton | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/27g | 12% | — | — |

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 7 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 18% | 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Luke Hooley | CE | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 4 | Guy Armitage | CE | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 11 in 17g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 6 | Jayden Nikorima | 5/8 | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Phoenix Steinwede | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Riley Dean | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1766 · Bradford Bulls 1349 · ELO difference: 417 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 52 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-18 16:18 UTC (latest tip update)