# Hull FC v Hull KR — Super League Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 20 – 34 Hull KR

_Hull KR spring past Hull FC._

Half time: 12 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 46% / Hull KR 54% · MKM Stadium · Fri, 24 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Joe Batchelor (3' 1st), Davy Litten (7'), Jake Arthur (74') · Hull KR: Tom Amone (30'), Arthur Mourgue (38'), Jack Broadbent (46'), Joe Burgess (61' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Dezaria (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 54% | Won |
| Hull FC | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 July 2026, 07:56 pm · Last updated: 19 Oct 2026, 03:18 am_

Hull FC 20–34 Hull KR in Super League Round 20 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC showed grit but couldn't hold off Hull KR, falling 34–20 at MKM Stadium. They started strong. Joe Batchelor crossed the line in the third minute. Zak Hardaker converted to make it 6-0. Davy Litten added to the tally just minutes later, pushing the score to 12-0. But their momentum waned.

Despite a solid start, Hull FC couldn't maintain the intensity. They were level at half-time, 12-12, after allowing Hull KR to claw back. Tom Amone and Arthur Mourgue made sure of that, reducing a two-try lead quickly. Mourgue's precision with the boot kept piling on the pressure, and Hull KR's comeback gathered pace.

Hull FC excelled in defence, boasting a tackle efficiency of 91.7%. They managed to avoid errors better than their rivals, losing the ball nine times compared to Hull KR's 13. But those clean fundamentals didn't translate into points after the 12th minute. Their sole second-half try, scored by Jake Arthur, arrived too late to make a dent in the outcome.

The shortcomings were evident in Hull FC's attack. While they managed more tackle busts and offloads, their ability to pierce Hull KR's line was lacking. Only one line break compared to Hull KR's five tells that story. No shortage of effort from the forwards, possessing a higher rating than Hull KR at 752 to 721. However, their statistical edge up front wasn't fully capitalised.

Hull KR's backline and halves weren't the standout positional strengths on paper. Yet they turned that around, showing sharper execution and benefiting from Mourgue's standout performance. Scoring 18 points through conversions and a try, he was the pivotal figure in Hull KR's second-half surge. Jack Broadbent, Joe Burgess, and Jordan Dezaria joined the scoring party to widen the gap.

Possessing 52% of the ball and commanding 58% of the territory, Hull KR retained their composure. After a rocky start, they responded with disciplined play, conceding only four penalties. Their attack was relentless, making the most of their chances, which ultimately made the difference.

Hull KR’s win might have surprised some, given both teams' recent form and position ratings. The model's pre-match read backed KR to win, albeit expecting a narrower margin. Reality outstripped that prediction, with KR winning by 14, comfortably over the suggested margin.

Alphr’s model found KR’s win likely at 54%, and the actual scoreline validated their dominance. Predictions aside, Hull KR’s ability to take control and translate possession into points was critical, handing them a deserved victory.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1,231 | Run metres | **1,611** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **36** | Tackle busts | 32 |
| **8** | Offloads | 2 |
| **9** | Errors | 13 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 4/4 | Goals | 7/7 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 9 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 3.6 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The model went 3/17 on this match. The over 40.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Hull FC 6 · Hull KR 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 53.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC +5.5 — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 4 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 54%, but Hull FC stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 291 ELO points clear, 1628 to 1337. Form leans Hull KR's way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Hull FC.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Hull KR by 3.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull FC | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 26.8pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -11.6pts | Avg Margin | -6.8pts |
| 1118.6m | Run Metres | 1060.4m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.4 |
| 308.6 | Tackles | 329.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 13.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L · R19 L | 15.2 |
| Hull KR | R15 W · R16 L · R17 W · R18 L · R19 L | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Hull KR | 26 – 12 | Hull FC | Hull KR 70% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Hull KR | 24 – 6 | Hull FC | Hull KR 79% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Hull KR | 18 – 4 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Hull FC | 14 – 28 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 34 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the right edge: Super League's 11th-ranked right edge attack (0.84 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 6th there (1.11 conceded/game). Key man: Barron, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.28 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 14th there (1.53 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.89/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.53/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.28/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.39/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.11/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.39/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.84/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.74/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.94/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 9 | 25 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 91m/g | 191m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 42 | 37 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 512m/g | 592m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.6/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.6% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 11 | 14 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 287m/g | 301m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.3/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.29) -10% · Centres 0.32/g (lg 0.49) -35% · Hookers 0.07/g (lg 0.11) -36%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.2) +35% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.25) +28% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/11g | 12% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 7 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 20/29g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zak Hardaker | CE | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 3/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 8/26g | 32% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 5 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 9/19g | 5/29g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 1/20g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Hugo Salabio | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Cade Cust | HK | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 4/20g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/13g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 1/11g | 16% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/6g | 20% | 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Amir Bourouh | INT | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 3/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Herman Ese'ese | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/26g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Lennon Clark | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 17% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 28% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 9 in 18g | 7/10g (3·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 13 in 13g | 11/10g (1·3·2·2·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/1g | 0/3g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/5g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Arthur Mourgue | HB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 32% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/4g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.90 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Amone | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Karl Lawton | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 2% | — | 🏉 76' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull FC 1337 · Hull KR 1628 · ELO difference: 291 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-18 16:18 UTC (latest tip update)