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Super League | Round 2

alphr.com.au

Fri 20 Feb11:00am
HKRHKR
WARWAR
Fri 20 Feb11:00am
BRDBRD
CATCAT
Fri 20 Feb11:00am
LEELEE
YRKYRK
Fri 20 Feb11:00am
STHSTH
LEILEI
Sat 21 Feb11:00am
TOTO
CASCAS
Sat 21 Feb11:00am
WIGWIG
HULHUL
Sun 22 Feb11:00am
HUDHUD
WAKWAK
WIG
Wigan Warriors
VS
HUL
Hull FC
THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • SATURDAY 21 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT

Win Probability

Full Time
34
6

Scoring Breakdown

WarriorsFC
6Tries1
5/6Conversions1/1
8Penalties Conceded8
9Errors14
1Sin Bins1
5Line Breaks2
50Tackle Busts23
8Offloads6
1372Metres835

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

FC had penalties evenly distributed (8-8). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.

PENS8 – 8
ERR9 – 14

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 80% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.6 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 37 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 40.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Wigan Warriors firmly in control (99%)
WIG34
99%80'1%
6HUL
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Hull FC momentumMomentum -84Wigan Warriors momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

80%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

80%

Hull FC

20%

✨

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull FC. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 160-point ELO rating advantage (1663 vs 1503). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull FC. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 9.6 points with a combined total of 37.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.25

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +9.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R1W

older → newer

26.8
Hull FC
R1W
17.4

Avg Conceded

11.6

Wigan Warriors

20.0

Hull FC

Avg Margin

15.2

Wigan Warriors

-2.6

Hull FC

Run Metres

1246

Wigan Warriors

979

Hull FC

Clean Breaks

4.2

Wigan Warriors

3.0

Hull FC

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1663Overall1503
HUL
ELO difference: +160 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

776Forwards730
Best: 915WIG +46Best: 883
985Backs838
Best: 1204WIG +147Best: 987
748Halves848
Best: 748HUL +100Best: 848
824Hooker600
WIG +224

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
HUL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
26.8pts
Avg Score
17.4pts
11.6pts
Avg Conceded
20.0pts
15.2pts
Avg Margin
-2.6pts
1246.2m
Run Metres
978.8m
4.2
Clean Breaks
3.0
300.8
Tackles
278.0
11.2
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
FC
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

80%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 37 · Line: +9.6

3/4 match predictions correct