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Super League | Round 2

alphr.com.au

THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • SATURDAY 21 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

346
HUL

Hull

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 80%

AI Win Probability

80%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

80%

Hull

20%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 160-point ELO rating advantage (1663 vs 1503). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 9.6 points with a combined total of 37.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.25

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +9.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R1W

older → newer

26.8
Hull
R1W
17.4

Avg Conceded

11.6

Wigan Warriors

20.0

Hull

Avg Margin

15.2

Wigan Warriors

-2.6

Hull

Run Metres

1246

Wigan Warriors

979

Hull

Clean Breaks

4.2

Wigan Warriors

3.0

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Jul 2025WIG 12 - 32 HUL
May 2025WIG 36 - 12 HUL
Mar 2025WIG 46 - 4 HUL
Aug 2024WIG 22 - 4 HUL
Jul 2024WIG 22 - 24 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1663Overall1503
HUL
ELO difference: +160 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

776Forwards730
Best: 915WIG +46Best: 883
985Backs838
Best: 1204WIG +147Best: 987
748Halves848
Best: 748HUL +100Best: 848
824Hooker600
WIG +224

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
HUL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
26.8pts
Avg Score
17.4pts
11.6pts
Avg Conceded
20.0pts
15.2pts
Avg Margin
-2.6pts
1246.2m
Run Metres
978.8m
4.2
Clean Breaks
3.0
300.8
Tackles
278.0
11.2
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

80%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 37 · Line: +9.6

3/4 match predictions correct