Toulouse Olympique
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Toulouse Olympique
70%
Castleford Tigers
30%
AI Match Overview
Toulouse Olympique are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Toulouse Olympique carry a 158-point ELO rating advantage (1489 vs 1331).
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Toulouse Olympique to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Toulouse Olympique +0.3 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Toulouse Olympique Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Toulouse Olympique | R1W older → newer | 13.2 |
Castleford Tigers | R1L | 15.6 |
Avg Conceded
33.2
Toulouse Olympique
36.4
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
-20.0
Toulouse Olympique
-20.8
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
729
Toulouse Olympique
662
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
2.4
Toulouse Olympique
3.0
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +0.3