# Toulouse Olympique v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 24 – 12 Castleford Tigers

_Toulouse Olympique roar back to sink Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 70% / Castleford Tigers 30% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sun, 22 Feb, 05:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Mathieu Jussaume (2' 1st), Reubenn Rennie (16'), Benjamin Laguerre (48'), Reubenn Rennie (62') · Castleford Tigers: Krystian Mapapalangi (8'), Jason Qareqare (25')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 70% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Toulouse Olympique 24–12 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 2 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten at the break, but it belonged to the visitors: Castleford Tigers led 12-10 at Stade Ernest Wallon, and on the balance of the first forty they'd earned it. Full time told a different story: Toulouse Olympique 24, Castleford Tigers 12. Whatever was said in the Toulouse sheds at the break, it worked.

The first half was a genuine arm wrestle. Mathieu Jussaume put Toulouse up inside two minutes, Krystian Mapapalangi hit back six minutes later and Tom Weaver's conversion nudged Castleford in front, 4-6. Reubenn Rennie's try on 16 minutes and Cesar Rouge's conversion had Toulouse back up 10-6, but Jason Qareqare crossed for Castleford on 25 minutes to level it at 10-10. Weaver's penalty goal on 35 minutes was the last say before the break, and it was enough to put the visitors in front at half-time, 10-12. Two points in it, and Castleford were the ones smiling at the sheds.

Then Toulouse flipped the whole thing on its head. Benjamin Laguerre went over in the 48th minute to nose them back in front, 14-12, and Rouge's conversion made it 16-12. By the 62nd minute Rennie had his second try of the night, Toulouse out to 20-12, and Rouge's conversion pushed it to 22-12 a minute later. With the game done, Rouge added a penalty goal in the 73rd for good measure. Fourteen unanswered points across that stretch, and Castleford had no response for any of it.

The stat sheet explains where that second-half shift came from. Toulouse ran for 1,321 metres to Castleford's 965, broke the line eight times to two and busted 44 tackles to Castleford's 38. They offloaded nine times to Castleford's three, keeping the ball alive when it mattered. It wasn't all one-way traffic on discipline, though. Toulouse coughed up 13 errors to Castleford's 8, and conceded seven penalties to Castleford's six. Castleford were the tidier side with the footy, but tidy doesn't put points on the board, and Toulouse's line-break count did the damage that counted.

The pre-match numbers had this as tight. Toulouse went in rated 1489 to Castleford's 1331, with the model tipping Toulouse by just 0.3 points and a combined total of 46. Castleford actually carried the stronger forward pack on paper, 936 to 731, but Toulouse held clear edges in the backs (907 to 738) and the halves (850 to 600), and it was that attacking spine that eventually told.

Form lines pointed the same way. Toulouse arrived averaging 18 points scored and just 16 conceded across their last five, with an average margin of plus-2. Castleford's form was rougher: an average margin of minus-20.8 over their last five, having gone LWLLL across that stretch after an earlier win. Toulouse's superior recent run metres (1310 to 663) and clean breaks (7 to 3) lined up neatly with what unfolded at Stade Ernest Wallon.

Alphr's model called Toulouse to win at 70% probability, with the predicted 0.3-point margin landing well within range of the actual 12-point result. Both picks for this match hit. Castleford led at the break and were the cleaner side with the ball all night, but Toulouse's ability to bust the line and offload proved the difference when it mattered, in the only half that decided the result.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,321** | Run metres | 965 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **44** | Tackle busts | 38 |
| **9** | Offloads | 3 |
| 13 | Errors | **8** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 13 | Errors | 8 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Toulouse Olympique to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 0.3 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Toulouse Olympique trailed 10–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–12. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 7 · Castleford Tigers 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Toulouse Olympique to win — model probability 70.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Toulouse Olympique 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Toulouse Olympique by 0 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Toulouse Olympique here: 70% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Toulouse Olympique sit 158 ELO points clear, 1489 to 1331.

Toulouse Olympique own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Toulouse Olympique to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 36.4pts |
| 2.0pts | Avg Margin | -20.8pts |
| 1310.0m | Run Metres | 663.0m |
| 7.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 303.0 | Tackles | 234.0 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R1 W | 18.0 |
| Castleford Tigers | R1 L | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Castleford Tigers lead 3-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Castleford Tigers | 36 – 18 | Toulouse Olympique | Castleford Tigers 57% ✓ |
| 2022 | R15 | Toulouse Olympique | 14 – 20 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2022 | R7 | Castleford Tigers | 32 – 6 | Toulouse Olympique | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 2 in 1g | 2/1g (2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 1 | Oliver Ashall-Bott | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 7/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 3 | Reubenn Rennie | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 16' 62' |
| 4 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 6 | Thomas Lacans | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Cesar Rouge | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Pierre Lima | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 13% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 13 | Anthony Marion | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Cator | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Bretherton | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Hugo Garrigues | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Rooney | FB | 0 in 1g | 2/8g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 2 | Mikaele Ravalawa | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 5 | Balami Qareqare | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Renouf Atoni | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Westerman | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jimmy Beckett | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Hall | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Christopher Atkin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1489 · Castleford Tigers 1331 · ELO difference: 158 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Toulouse Olympique | Castleford Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 731 (best 894) | 936 (best 1208) | Castleford Tigers +205 |
| Backs | 907 (best 1058) | 738 (best 830) | Toulouse Olympique +169 |
| Halves | 850 (best 850) | 600 (best 600) | Toulouse Olympique +250 |
| Hooker | 776 | 777 | Castleford Tigers +1 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Castleford Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Toulouse Olympique favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)