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Super League | Round 2

alphr.com.au

STADE ERNEST WALLON • SATURDAY 21 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
TO

Toulouse Olympique

2412
CAS

Castleford Tigers

✅ Model correct — backed Toulouse Olympique at 70%

AI Win Probability

70%Toulouse OlympiqueFavourite

Toulouse Olympique

70%

Castleford Tigers

30%

AI Match Overview

Toulouse Olympique are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Toulouse Olympique carry a 158-point ELO rating advantage (1489 vs 1331).

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Toulouse Olympique to Win @1.42

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Toulouse Olympique +0.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Toulouse Olympique Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Toulouse Olympique
R1W

older → newer

13.2
Castleford Tigers
R1L
15.6

Avg Conceded

33.2

Toulouse Olympique

36.4

Castleford Tigers

Avg Margin

-20.0

Toulouse Olympique

-20.8

Castleford Tigers

Run Metres

729

Toulouse Olympique

662

Castleford Tigers

Clean Breaks

2.4

Toulouse Olympique

3.0

Castleford Tigers

H2H History (Last 2)Castleford Tigers lead 2-0
Jun 2022TO 14 - 20 CAS
Apr 2022TO 6 - 32 CAS
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

TO
1489Overall1331
CAS
ELO difference: +158 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

731Forwards936
Best: 894CAS +205Best: 1208
907Backs738
Best: 1058TO +169Best: 830
850Halves600
Best: 850TO +250Best: 600
776Hooker777
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

TO
Stat
CAS
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
13.2pts
Avg Score
15.6pts
33.2pts
Avg Conceded
36.4pts
-20.0pts
Avg Margin
-20.8pts
729.2m
Run Metres
661.6m
2.4
Clean Breaks
3.0
172.4
Tackles
234.0
8.0
Errors
7.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Olympique
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Tigers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Olympique
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Olympique
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Tigers
7
H2H History6.0%
Tigers

Model Confidence

70%

Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +0.3

2/4 match predictions correct