# St Helens v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 20 – 18 Leigh Leopards

_St Helens surge back to march in over Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 12 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 41% / Leigh Leopards 59% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sat, 21 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Daryl Clark (7'), Kyle Feldt (37'), Joe Shorrocks (47') · Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (2' 1st), Innes Senior (26'), Bailey Hodgson (34')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 59% | Lost |
| St Helens | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

St Helens 20–18 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 2 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time had this one shaped exactly as the formbook suggested it would. Leigh Leopards led 16-12 at The BrewDog Stadium, and given they'd walked in with four wins from five against St Helens' two, and an average margin of plus-9.6 versus minus-6.4, nobody watching would have called that scoreline a shock.

Then the second half flipped the whole story. St Helens outscored Leigh Leopards 8-2 after the break to steal it 20-18, and the manner of it was almost stubborn: penalty goal, converted try, penalty goal, three scoring plays in the space of eleven minutes that dragged the game back the other way.

The shape of the first half explains why Leigh Leopards were still favourites at the break despite St Helens actually leading twice early. Josh Charnley scored inside two minutes for Leigh, St Helens hit back through Daryl Clark and a Jackson Hastings conversion and penalty goal to go 8-4 up by the 21st minute, then Leigh Leopards answered with two tries in nine minutes through Innes Senior and Bailey Hodgson, both converted by Adam Cook, to lead 8-16. Kyle Feldt's try just before the break trimmed it back to 12-16, and that's how it stood at the interval.

From there St Helens simply refused to let Leigh Leopards extend it. Adam Cook's penalty goal in the 45th made it 12-18, but Joe Shorrocks crossed two minutes later, Hastings converted to level it at 18-18, and his penalty goal in the 56th proved the difference. No further scoring after that, which given how frantic the first fifty-six minutes were, is its own small surprise.

Strip out the scoreboard and Leigh Leopards were the better side with ball in hand for long stretches. They ran for 1,140 metres to St Helens' 1,075, broke the line six times to four, and busted 39 tackles to 32, backed by 12 offloads against St Helens' six. That tracks with the pre-match numbers: Leigh's halves pairing rated at 978 against St Helens' 794, and their backs at 786 versus 721, both sizeable edges that showed up in the footwork and the offload count.

What undid Leigh Leopards was discipline. They conceded seven penalties to St Helens' two, handing back exactly the sort of cheap field position and shots at goal that let Hastings post two penalty goals worth four points, the same margin the game was ultimately decided by. St Helens' one clear statistical win, fewer errors at 11 to 9 aside, this was the number that mattered.

Alphr's model had Leigh Leopards favourites at 59 percent, with a predicted margin of 9.9 and a combined total of 36. The total was close enough, the actual finish landed at 38. The margin call was the one that hurt: St Helens won by 2 rather than losing by roughly 10, a gap of nearly 12 points on the tip itself. Both picks missed. Leigh Leopards did most things better on the sheet, ran further, broke more lines, offloaded more often, and still walked away with nothing to show for it. Discipline decided this one, not class.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1,075 | Run metres | **1,140** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 32 | Tackle busts | **39** |
| 6 | Offloads | **12** |
| 11 | Errors | **9** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 11 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

St Helens defied the model's 59% prediction for Leigh Leopards, a notable result. The predicted margin of 9.9 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 36 was close to the actual 38, within 2 points. St Helens trailed 12–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–18. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Controversial** (59/100) — penalties St Helens 2 · Leigh Leopards 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 59.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 10 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leigh Leopards are the call at 59%, but St Helens stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 104 ELO points clear, 1636 to 1532. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 9.9, with the two sides combining for about 36. Lean Leigh Leopards, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 13.6pts |
| -6.4pts | Avg Margin | 9.6pts |
| 1056.2m | Run Metres | 1286.2m |
| 3.0 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 274.0 | Tackles | 306.0 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 7.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R1 L | 15.6 |
| Leigh Leopards | R1 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 48 – 10 | St Helens | Leigh Leopards 73% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 10 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R19 | St Helens | 4 – 16 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 12 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | R19 | Leigh Leopards | 46 – 4 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.41 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (0.72 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 20 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.24 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 4th there (0.62 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.03/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.62/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.24/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.59/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.55/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.55/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.41/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.62/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.72/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 8 | 15 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 171m/g | 152m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 4.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.6% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 75 · 36 | 61 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 500m/g | 597m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18/g | 20.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 85.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 8 | 29 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 308m/g | 367m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.18) +17% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.23) -13%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Wingers 0.8/g (lg 0.96) -17% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.11) -18% · Centres 0.37/g (lg 0.46) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 11/13g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (0·0·1·2·2·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/2g | 9/10g | 64% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 3 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Deon Cross | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 5/10g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | no games | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/5g | 51% | — | — |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 14/65g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 7/26g | 18% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 10 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 10/57g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/36g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/6g | 2% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 14 | Harry Robertson | INT | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 5/11g | 41% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Host | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/32g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Matt Whitley | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/24g | 6% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 17% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (2·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 5/17g | 1/7g | 38% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 4 | Keanan Brand | CE | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (0·2·0·0·2·3·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/14g | 0/6g | 42% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Cook | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Andrew Badrock | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Ofahengaue | LK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/20g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Isaac Liu | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Horne | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1532 · Leigh Leopards 1636 · ELO difference: 104 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)