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Super League | Round 2

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THE BREWDOG STADIUM • FRIDAY 20 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
STH

St Helens

2018
LEI

Leigh Leopards

❌ Upset — model favoured Leigh Leopards at 59%

AI Win Probability

59%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

St Helens

41%

Leigh Leopards

59%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though St Helens are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 104-point ELO rating advantage (1636 vs 1532). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Helens. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 9.9 points with a combined total of 36.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.69

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards -9.9 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R1L

older → newer

15.6
Leigh Leopards
R1W
23.2

Avg Conceded

22.0

St Helens

13.6

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

-6.4

St Helens

9.6

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1055

St Helens

1285

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

3.0

St Helens

4.8

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 4-1
Sep 2025STH 10 - 28 LEI
Jul 2025STH 4 - 16 LEI
Sep 2024STH 12 - 18 LEI
Jul 2024STH 4 - 46 LEI
Mar 2024STH 12 - 4 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1532Overall1636
LEI
ELO difference: -104 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

741Forwards737
Best: 880EvenBest: 906
721Backs786
Best: 770LEI +66Best: 901
794Halves978
Best: 794LEI +184Best: 978
849Hooker803
STH +46

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
LEI
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
15.6pts
Avg Score
23.2pts
22.0pts
Avg Conceded
13.6pts
-6.4pts
Avg Margin
9.6pts
1054.6m
Run Metres
1285.2m
3.0
Clean Breaks
4.8
274.0
Tackles
306.0
9.6
Errors
7.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

59%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 36 · Line: -9.9

1/4 match predictions correct