# Leeds Rhinos v York Knights — Super League Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 46 – 14 York Knights

_Leeds Rhinos run riot over York Knights._

Half time: 22 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 72% / York Knights 28% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 21 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: James McDonnell (10' 1st), Maika Sivo (28'), Ryan Hall (30'), Chris Hankinson (35'), Ryan Hall (49'), Brodie Croft (58'), Harry Newman (63'), Maika Sivo (66') · York Knights: Paul Vaughan (17'), Jordan Thompson (54'), Scott Galeano (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 72% | Won |
| York Knights | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.6 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 46–14 York Knights in Super League Round 2 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos led 22-6 at the break, and if anything the second half was worse for York Knights. The Rhinos put on another 24 points after half-time to York's 8, turning a comfortable lead into a rout and closing it out 46-14 at AMT Headingley Stadium.

The scoring pattern in that first half told most of the story. James McDonnell opened it inside ten minutes, York hit back through Paul Vaughan to make it 6-6 by the 18th, and then Leeds simply took over. Maika Sivo, Ryan Hall and Chris Hankinson all crossed inside a 17-minute stretch either side of the half-hour, and by the break it was 22-6 with York chasing a scoreboard that had already got away from them.

York never found a way back into it after the restart. Jordan Thompson's try on 54 minutes briefly nudged the margin to 28-10, but Leeds answered inside four minutes through Brodie Croft, then added Harry Newman and a second Sivo try either side of the 65th, blowing it out to 46-10 before Scott Galeano's late try in the 79th made the final score look a touch kinder to York than the match was.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard shows. Leeds ran for 1,601 metres to York's 1,047, a gap of well over 500 metres that shows up directly in the nine line breaks Leeds made compared to York's four. Add in fewer errors, 10 to 13, and the discipline edge, conceding four penalties to York's six, and Leeds controlled every phase of ball control that actually matters.

That forward dominance was flagged before kick-off. Leeds went into the game rated 1009 in the forwards to York's 837, the single biggest gap of any position group, and it played out exactly as advertised in the run-metre count. York's one edge on paper was at hooker, 926 to 848, but it never translated into parity up front where the game was actually decided.

Form lines pointed to something closer than what unfolded. York arrived with a win in their last five and an average margin of plus-1, while Leeds had lost four of five and were averaging minus-2.4. On paper this had the makings of a genuine contest. On the day it wasn't close.

Alphr's model backed Leeds at 72 percent and got the winner right, but the margin read was well off. It had Leeds by 9.6 points in a 43-point game. The actual margin was 32, and the total ran 17 points hotter than forecast. One from two on this one, and the miss wasn't subtle.

Leeds finish this one having answered every question about their forward pack, and answered it early. York will look at 13 errors and a two-to-one deficit in line breaks and know exactly where the afternoon slipped away from them. Nothing complicated about this result. The bigger side up front had the bigger day, start to finish.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,601** | Run metres | 1,047 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **35** | Tackle busts | 31 |
| **10** | Offloads | 9 |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 3 |
| 7/8 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.6 but the actual margin was 32 points. The game's 60 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 43. Leeds Rhinos led 22–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 4 · York Knights 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 71.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 10 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 72% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 28 ELO points clear, 1557 to 1529.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 9.6, with the two sides combining for about 43. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 13.6pts | Avg Score | 19.0pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.0pts |
| -2.4pts | Avg Margin | 1.0pts |
| 1261.0m | Run Metres | 1065.0m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 2.0 |
| 295.2 | Tackles | 340.0 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 6.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R1 L | 13.6 |
| York Knights | R1 W | 19.0 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Leeds Rhinos lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | York Knights | 16 – 66 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 68% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.68/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) | — |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 4th (strong)) | — |
| Right | 1.21/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 2nd (strong)) | — |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.23) +174% · Props 0.26/g (lg 0.14) +86% · Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.18) +83%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.05) +0% · Centres 0.39/g (lg 0.46) -15% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.11) -18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/25g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 28' 66' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 11/25g | 30% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 4 | Christopher Hankinson | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 35' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/15g | 34% | — | 🏉 30' 49' |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/14g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/24g | 38% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/13g | 11% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Holroyd | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/12g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/26g | 18% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 13 | Cameron Smith | LK | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Cam Smith | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/26g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Keenan Palasia | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan O'Neill | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| 17 | Jeremiah Matautia | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Ben Jones-Bishop | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 2/11g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Kieran Buchanan | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | — | — |
| 5 | Scott Galeano | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 6 | Nikau Williams | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Liam Harris | HB | 0 in 1g | 3/8g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 8 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Paul McShane | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/23g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 11 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/12g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Martin | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | King Vuniyayawa | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1557 · York Knights 1529 · ELO difference: 28 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)