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Super League | Round 2

alphr.com.au

AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 20 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

4614
YRK

York Knights

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 72%

AI Win Probability

72%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

72%

York Knights

28%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over York Knights. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leeds Rhinos carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1557 vs 1529). The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 9.6 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.39

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos +9.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R1L

older → newer

13.6
York Knights
R1W
19.0

Avg Conceded

16.0

Leeds Rhinos

18.0

York Knights

Avg Margin

-2.4

Leeds Rhinos

1.0

York Knights

Run Metres

1259

Leeds Rhinos

1059

York Knights

Clean Breaks

3.4

Leeds Rhinos

2.0

York Knights

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1557Overall1529
YRK
ELO difference: +28 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1009Forwards837
Best: 1234LEE +172Best: 998
854Backs854
Best: 1009EvenBest: 1024
795Halves770
Best: 795LEE +25Best: 770
848Hooker926
YRK +78

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
YRK
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
13.6pts
Avg Score
19.0pts
16.0pts
Avg Conceded
18.0pts
-2.4pts
Avg Margin
1.0pts
1259.4m
Run Metres
1059.0m
3.4
Clean Breaks
2.0
295.2
Tackles
340.0
9.6
Errors
6.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

72%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +9.6

3/4 match predictions correct