# Hull KR v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 28 – 34 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves roar back to howl past Hull KR._

Half time: 14 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 55% / Warrington Wolves 45% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Wed, 19 Aug, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Mikey Lewis (33'), Karl Lawton (39'), Dean Hadley (78'), Tevita Pangai Junior (79') · Warrington Wolves: Albert Hopoate (16' 1st), James Bentley (28'), Toafofoa Sipley (42'), Liam Byrne (59'), George Williams (64'), Albert Hopoate (75' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 55% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.3 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Aug 2026, 06:27 pm · Last updated: 18 Aug 2026, 06:50 pm_

Hull KR 28–34 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 2 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different ideas of how to win a game of footy were on show at Sewell Group Craven Park, and only one of them lasted the full 80. Hull KR wanted the ball alive, throwing it around with nine offloads to Warrington's five. Warrington wanted it in their forwards' hands, grinding out 1,364 run metres to Hull KR's 1,104. In the end the grind won, 34-28.

Hull KR's approach had them up 14-10 at half-time, and it made sense on the sheet: Mikey Lewis crossed in the 33rd minute, Karl Lawton followed right on the stroke of half-time, and suddenly the ambitious footy looked like the smart footy. Warrington had led early through Albert Hopoate and James Bentley, but Hull KR's back-to-back tries flipped it before the break.

Then Warrington found their gear. Toafofoa Sipley levelled it at 14-14 three minutes into the second half, and from there it was one-way traffic for a long stretch. Liam Byrne in the 59th minute and George Williams in the 64th turned a tight contest into a 16-30 scoreboard, and Hopoate's second try in the 75th minute all but shut the door before Hull KR even had a chance to make a final push.

The tackle bust count tells you why. Warrington beat defenders 43 times to Hull KR's 32, and with a backline rated 1012 against Hull KR's 756 and halves rated 1035 to 795, that gap was always going to show up somewhere on the field. Hull KR's forward pack held its own, 783 to 807, but it wasn't enough to offset what Warrington had out wide.

Hull KR didn't fold, to their credit. Dean Hadley and Tevita Pangai Junior scored in the 78th and 79th minutes to drag the margin back from eighteen points to six, but by then Warrington had already banked the points that mattered. Ewan Irwin's kicking was perfect all night, and Arthur Mourgue's boot kept Hull KR in touch, but neither could paper over nine errors against Warrington's eight, or a Warrington side that came into the game averaging 33.2 points and 1,426 metres a game across their last five.

The form lines pointed to a tight one. Warrington had won four of their last five, same as Hull KR, but Warrington's average winning margin of 18.8 compared to Hull KR's 15.6 suggested a side used to putting games away rather than nursing them. That's roughly what happened.

Alphr's model had Hull KR as 55% favourites and picked them by 4.3 points on a total of 43. Warrington won by 6 in a match that produced 62, twenty more points than tipped. Credit where it's due: the margin call wasn't far off, even if the winner was back to front. The total blew straight past it, and so did Warrington.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1,104 | Run metres | **1,364** |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| 32 | Tackle busts | **43** |
| **9** | Offloads | 5 |
| 9 | Errors | **8** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 6 |
| 6/6 | Goals | 5/7 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | 8 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 55% prediction for Hull KR, a notable result. The predicted margin of 4.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 62 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 43. Warrington Wolves trailed 14–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–34. The model went 1/4 on this match. Warrington Wolves covered the 8.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Hull KR 6 · Warrington Wolves 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 55.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves +8.5 — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 55.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 55%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 41 ELO points clear, 1673 to 1632.

On paper Warrington Wolves shade it, ahead on 4 of 5 factors including Recent Win Rate, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Hull KR, which says ELO Difference carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull KR by 4.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 31.6pts | Avg Score | 33.2pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Margin | 18.8pts |
| 1417.2m | Run Metres | 1426.0m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 6.2 |
| 318.0 | Tackles | 312.2 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R19 L · R20 W · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W | 31.6 |
| Warrington Wolves | R19 W · R20 L · R21 W · R22 W · R23 W | 33.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | EF | Warrington Wolves | 35 – 12 | Hull KR |
| 2026 | R19 | Warrington Wolves | 34 – 12 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R27 | Hull KR | 28 – 20 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R12 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 31 | Hull KR |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 10 – 8 | Warrington Wolves |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.91 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 4th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.27/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.73/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.91/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 3/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.95/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.95/g (def 6th) | 0.91/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 7 | 12 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 196m/g | 183m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 90.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 27 | 34 · 39 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 628m/g | 391m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 11.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.3% | 86.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 13 | 14 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 310m/g | 303m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.2) +35% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Wingers 0.9/g (lg 0.99) -9%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.3) -13% · Hookers 0.08/g (lg 0.11) -27% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.5) -34%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/8g | 2/14g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 12 in 22g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 11/18g | 15/26g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 13/35g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 8 in 22g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 3/10g | 16/30g | 36% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 18 in 17g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·2·1·1) | 4/14g | 31/29g | 64% | — | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 16 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·3·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 35/53g | 50% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 8 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 5/11g | 10/34g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 6/37g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 7 in 20g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/14g | 13/59g | 32% | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 3/51g | 12% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 7/37g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 6 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 5/17g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 5/58g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Amone | INT | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/47g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Karl Lawton | INT | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 3% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 17 | Tevita Jnr | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 9 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/11g | 3/5g | 46% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 12 in 22g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 16' 75' |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 8/18g | 1/6g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ewan Irwin | 5/8 | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 9/17g | 2/4g | 24% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/15g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 12 | Samuel Stone | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 4 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/18g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 8/28g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1673 · Warrington Wolves 1632 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 44.9% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | ELO Difference | 22.5% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Halves Control | 15.3% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Venue Advantage | 7.2% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Forward Pack | 6.8% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-18 08:50 UTC (latest tip update)