# Bradford Bulls v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 28 – 10 Catalans Dragons

_Bradford Bulls see off Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 65% / Catalans Dragons 35% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Sat, 21 Feb, 07:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Andy Ackers (8' 1st), Waqa Blake (31'), Caleb Aekins (37'), Waqa Blake (60') · Catalans Dragons: Solomona Faataape (43'), Toby Sexton (53')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | 65% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.2 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Bradford Bulls 28–10 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 2 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six line breaks to one. That's the number that explains everything about Bradford Bulls' 28-10 demolition of Catalans Dragons at Bartercard Odsal Stadium, and it's why the Bulls were 24 points to the good before the Dragons had so much as troubled the scoreboard.

Andy Ackers got things moving in the 8th minute, and Rowan Milnes made sure every bit of pressure after that turned into points, three penalty goals between the 14th and 30th minutes while Bradford kept finding space the Dragons couldn't close. By the 39th minute, tries to Waqa Blake and Caleb Aekins either side of Milnes' boot had it at 24-0. Catalans Dragons hadn't laid a glove on the board yet.

The half-time scoreline tells its own story, but it's the underlying numbers that explain how a side rated as the stronger outfit in the halves, 1075 to 751, and even fractional favourites by the model, ended up chasing a lost cause. Bradford's 49 tackle busts to 22 and those six line breaks to one meant every carry looked like it might turn into six points, and twice in the first half it did exactly that.

Catalans Dragons did find some answers after the break. Solomona Faataape crossed in the 43rd minute, Toby Sexton converted, and then Sexton grabbed one of his own in the 53rd to drag it back to 24-10. For a side that had won four of its last five coming in, it was the sort of response you'd expect, credit where it's due. But Waqa Blake's second try in the 60th minute, his brace on the night, put it well out of reach.

Strip away the final margin and Catalans Dragons weren't disgraced with the ball. They coughed it up 13 times to Bradford's 14, the tidier side by that measure, and even out-offloaded the Bulls 12 to 10. None of it mattered much when the home side was cutting the line open at will and Catalans conceded nine penalties to Bradford's six, handing over exactly the kind of cheap territory that a rampant attack doesn't need twice.

For Bradford Bulls, it's a result that sits oddly against the form line, no wins in their last five and an average margin of minus 7 coming in. Whatever had gone wrong in recent weeks, none of it showed up here. Catalans arrived on a four-match winning streak and looked every bit the part before kickoff, rated ahead in forwards, 814 to 802, and comfortably ahead in the halves. On this night none of that translated onto the paddock.

Alphr's model backed Bradford Bulls at 65 percent and got the winner right. The margin was where it came unstuck, tipped at 1.2 points and beaten by 18, while the total of 39 landed within a point of the actual 38. One from two on this one, a reminder that picking the winner and pricing the gap between them are two very different jobs.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,166** | Run metres | 1,086 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **49** | Tackle busts | 22 |
| 10 | Offloads | **12** |
| 14 | Errors | **13** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 14 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bradford Bulls to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.2 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 38, within 1 points. The model went 1/2 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 6 · Catalans Dragons 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bradford Bulls to win — model probability 64.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bradford Bulls 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 1 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bradford Bulls here: 65% to see off Catalans Dragons. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Bradford Bulls.

On paper Catalans Dragons shade it, ahead on 2 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The model still sides with Bradford Bulls, which says Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 1.2, with the two sides combining for about 39. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Bradford Bulls to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 17.8pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| -7.0pts | Avg Margin | -1.4pts |
| 1192.0m | Run Metres | 854.2m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.6 |
| 314.0 | Tackles | 219.6 |
| 13.0 | Errors | 6.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R1 L | 20.0 |
| Catalans Dragons | R1 W | 17.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Catalans Dragons lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Catalans Dragons | 34 – 24 | Bradford Bulls | Catalans Dragons 54% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 31' 60' |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Rowan Milnes | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Hooley | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 10 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Mitch Souter | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Eribe Doro | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 3 | Nick Cotric | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 5 | Joshua Simm | WG | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Toby Sexton | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 7 | Lewis Dodd | HB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Chris Satae | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Costa | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Benjamin Condon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Kruise Leeming | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Josh Allen | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Alexis Lis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Tiaki Chan | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1473 · Catalans Dragons 1472 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Bradford Bulls

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bradford Bulls | Catalans Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 802 (best 1149) | 814 (best 1112) | Catalans Dragons +12 |
| Backs | 1082 (best 1311) | 1055 (best 1275) | Bradford Bulls +28 |
| Halves | 751 (best 751) | 1075 (best 1075) | Catalans Dragons +323 |
| Hooker | 669 | 600 | Bradford Bulls +69 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Bradford Bulls predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)