# Warrington Wolves v Hull KR — Super League Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 34 – 12 Hull KR

_Warrington Wolves hunt down Hull KR._

Half time: 22 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 42% / Hull KR 58% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sun, 19 July, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Lachlan Webster (7' 1st), James Harrison (14'), Matty Ashton (31'), Danny Walker (33'), Joe Philbin (51'), Matty Ashton (73') · Hull KR: Oliver Gildart (60'), James Batchelor (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 58% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.8 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 July 2026, 08:59 am · Last updated: 11 Oct 2026, 10:52 am_

Warrington Wolves 34–12 Hull KR in Super League Round 19 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR had their moments but ultimately fell short against Warrington Wolves, going down 34–12. The model had given them a 58% chance of winning, expecting them to edge out the Wolves by just under eight points. But the game told a different story. Oliver Gildart and James Batchelor's late tries offered fleeting comfort.

Hull KR found themselves on the back foot early. Their run metres, a mere 877 compared to Warrington's 1,510, painted the picture. The forwards tried to compete, but with a lower positional rating of 787 against 814, the challenge was clear. The cracks showed in the penalties department too, conceding nine to Warrington's four. These lapses allowed Warrington further control over the flow of the game.

Warrington Wolves executed brilliantly, despite the sceptical odds. They came into this game with only two wins from their past five, against KR’s three, but their backline's muscle had something to say. Lachlan Webster's early try set the tone. By half-time, they had amassed a 22–0 lead, thanks to the relentless assault from James Harrison, Matty Ashton and Danny Walker, with Ashton doubling his tally by full-time.

Their defensive resolve also stood out. While Hull KR had been averaging 20 points in recent games, they could only muster half that here. Line breaks and tackle busts put Warrington's strength in stark relief. Six line breaks to one and 42 tackle busts to 12 showcased the disparity on the day. It was the kind of onslaught Hull KR’s defence, ranked lower across the board, could not withstand.

Ewan Irwin’s boot further solidified Warrington’s dominance. Converting four tries and slotting a crucial penalty, Irwin's accuracy kept the scoreboard ticking in Wolves' favour. His point tally was instrumental in extending the lead, ensuring any semblance of a Hull KR comeback was quickly quashed.

Despite the pre-match expectations, Warrington’s performance was a reminder of the unpredictability of sport. The mathematical models, though adept, can still miss the human element: the surge in adrenaline and morale that a home crowd or an early score can inject. Warrington delivered a performance that belied recent averages, driving over the Hull KR line repeatedly.

In the end, it was a well-deserved victory for Warrington, leaving Hull KR to ponder where their approach went awry. Discipline issues and the inability to convert possession into points were their undoing. Next time might be different, but here at the Halliwell Jones Stadium, Warrington was unrelenting.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,510** | Run metres | 877 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **42** | Tackle busts | 12 |
| **10** | Offloads | 8 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/7 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 58% prediction for Hull KR, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 46, within 6 points. The model went 2/17 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 4 · Hull KR 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 57.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR -6.5 — model probability 57.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 57.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 8 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 58%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 111 ELO points clear, 1677 to 1566. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Warrington Wolves.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Hull KR by 7.8, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 13.2pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -8.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.0pts |
| 1233.6m | Run Metres | 1173.0m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 342.2 | Tackles | 320.8 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 14.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R14 W · R15 L · R16 W · R17 L · R18 L | 13.2 |
| Hull KR | R14 W · R15 W · R16 L · R17 W · R18 L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | EF | Warrington Wolves | 35 – 12 | Hull KR | Warrington Wolves 60% ✓ |
| 2026 | R2 | Hull KR | 28 – 34 | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR 55% ✗ |
| 2025 | R27 | Hull KR | 28 – 20 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 31 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 10 – 8 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.71 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 1st there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.82 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 4th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.76/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.35/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.29/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.41/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.71/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.82/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.88/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.35/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.94/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.12/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 9 | 25 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 197m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 86.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 33 | 36 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 382m/g | 604m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 11.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 4 | 13 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 299m/g | 307m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 91.9% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.29) -14% · Centres 0.32/g (lg 0.49) -35% · Wingers 0.61/g (lg 0.99) -38%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.19) +42% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 0.92/g (lg 0.99) -7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Webster | FB | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 10 in 17g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/9g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 8/17g | 21/46g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ewan Irwin | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Leon Hayes | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 9/63g | 2% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/17g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/23g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | James Harrison | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/30g | 12% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 16/71g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/16g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | James Bentley | INT | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/11g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Philbin | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/16g | 3/56g | 10% | — | 🏉 51' |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 9 in 17g | 7/10g (0·3·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 11/17g | 5/5g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Rhyse Martin | CE | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/14g | 1/6g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 1/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 5 | Noah Booth | WG | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 16 in 17g | 11/10g (4·1·0·3·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/11g | 6/7g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/10g | 2/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/8g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Dean Hadley | PR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Karl Lawton | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/8g | 14% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Amone | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Broadbent | INT | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/5g | 30% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1566 · Hull KR 1677 · ELO difference: 111 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-10 23:52 UTC (latest tip update)