# Toulouse Olympique v York Knights — Super League Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 30 – 22 York Knights

_Toulouse Olympique see off York Knights._

Half time: 28 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 56% / York Knights 44% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sun, 19 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Jake Shorrocks (7' 1st), Luke Polselli (13'), Olly Ashall-Bott (24' Tipped ⚡), Paul Ulberg (27'), Henry O'Kane (34' Tipped ⚡) · York Knights: Oliver Field (47'), Sam Wood (51'), Nikau Williams (56'), Tom Inman (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | 56% | Won |
| York Knights | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.8 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 July 2026, 08:59 am · Last updated: 11 Oct 2026, 05:45 am_

Toulouse Olympique 30–22 York Knights in Super League Round 19 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique's first-half blitz set the stage for their 30-22 victory over York Knights at Stade Ernest Wallon. They stormed to a 28-0 lead by half-time, thanks to a flurry of tries and disciplined play. Jake Shorrocks kicked off the scoring with a penalty goal and a try within the first seven minutes. Luke Polselli, Olly Ashall-Bott, Paul Ulberg, and Henry O'Kane followed suit, each crossing the line to extend the lead. By the break, Toulouse had established a commanding position.

York Knights, however, refused to go quietly. They came out fighting in the second half, with Oliver Field scoring a try in the 47th minute. Sam Wood and Nikau Williams added to the tally, and Jonathan Bennison's conversions brought them closer. By the 56th minute, York had cut the deficit to 12 points. Shorrocks added a penalty goal for Toulouse in the 63rd minute, providing some breathing room. Tom Inman's late try for York kept the pressure on, but the final score stood at 30-22.

Toulouse's first-half dominance was key. Their 41 tackle busts compared to York's 29 highlighted their physical edge. Both teams managed five line breaks, but Toulouse's backs, rated at 1034 pre-match against York's 880, showed their strength. Discipline played a crucial role, with Toulouse conceding only three penalties to York's seven, helping them maintain control.

Errors were evenly matched, with both sides committing ten. Yet, Toulouse's slight advantage in run metres, 1,191 to York's 1,144, reflected their effective use of possession. York's 13 offloads outnumbered Toulouse's nine, but they couldn't turn these into game-changing moments. Despite York's spirited second-half effort, the gap from the first half proved too wide to bridge.

In terms of recent form, Toulouse had two wins from their last five matches, while York had three. The pre-match model gave Toulouse a 56% chance of winning, predicting a narrow margin. The actual eight-point victory exceeded expectations but aligned with Toulouse's average scoring of 32.8 points per game.

Ultimately, the match was defined by Toulouse's explosive start. Their early scoring spree created a lead that York couldn't overcome, despite their determined comeback. Toulouse's ability to withstand pressure and maintain discipline secured them a well-deserved win.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,191** | Run metres | 1,144 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| **41** | Tackle busts | 29 |
| 9 | Offloads | **13** |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 5/7 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Toulouse Olympique to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 1.8 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The model went 6/17 on this match. York Knights covered the 11.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (40/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 3 · York Knights 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Toulouse Olympique to win — model probability 55.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +11.5 — model probability 55.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Toulouse Olympique 1-12 — model probability 55.7% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Toulouse Olympique by 2 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Toulouse Olympique are the call at 56%, but York Knights stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Toulouse Olympique sit 109 ELO points clear, 1477 to 1368. Form leans York Knights' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Toulouse Olympique.

On paper York Knights shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate, Halves Control and H2H History. The model still sides with Toulouse Olympique, which says ELO Difference and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Toulouse Olympique by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Toulouse Olympique, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 32.8pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 32.8pts |
| 4.4pts | Avg Margin | -12.4pts |
| 1173.8m | Run Metres | 1239.6m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 281.0 | Tackles | 283.0 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 W · R18 W | 32.8 |
| York Knights | R14 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — York Knights lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | York Knights | 38 – 14 | Toulouse Olympique | York Knights 66% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 10th there (1.39 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.28 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 7th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.61/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.39/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 7th) | 2.28/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.61/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.89/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 8 | 11 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 117m/g | 103m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 39 · 49 | 26 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 561m/g | 434m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.6/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 87.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 10 | 9 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 290m/g | 317m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 92% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.25) +144% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.06) +83% · Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.19) +74%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 0.94/g (lg 0.49) +92% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.06) +83% · Wingers 1.67/g (lg 0.99) +69%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 11 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 39% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 33% | — | — |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 23% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 8 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Shorrocks | 5/8 | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 4% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 63% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Anthony Marion | HK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 13 in 16g | 12/10g (3·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·2·3) | 1/1g | 2/10g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Baptiste Rodriguez | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Louis Grossemy | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Scott Galeano | CE | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (3·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Paul McShane | 5/8 | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Wood | 2R | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 47' |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Paul Vaughan | INT | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Jesse Dee | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1477 · York Knights 1368 · ELO difference: 109 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | York Knights |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | York Knights |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Toulouse Olympique predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-10 18:45 UTC (latest tip update)