# St Helens v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 34 – 18 Catalans Dragons

_St Helens rally to march past Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 59% / Catalans Dragons 41% · The BrewDog Stadium · Sat, 18 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Jed Cartwright (17' Tipped ⚡), Jack Campbell (41'), Harry Robertson (44'), Jack Welsby (47' Tipped ⚡), Jack Campbell (59'), Harry Robertson (79') · Catalans Dragons: Charlie Staines (7' 1st), Nick Cotric (30'), Nick Cotric (50')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 59% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.4 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 July 2026, 07:21 am · Last updated: 11 Oct 2026, 10:51 am_

St Helens 34–18 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 19 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

1,315. That's how many run metres St Helens racked up in their 34-18 victory over Catalans Dragons at The BrewDog Stadium. This stat highlighted the match's second-half turnaround. St Helens' ability to cover ground made the difference as they surged ahead after the break.

At half-time, St Helens trailed 12-6. But they came out strong in the second half. Jack Campbell and Harry Robertson each scored twice, with Jack Welsby also crossing the line. Jackson Hastings was reliable with the boot, converting five times to build on their forward momentum. The match began with Catalans Dragons' Charlie Staines scoring in the seventh minute, but their early lead didn't hold up against St Helens' pressure.

Catalans Dragons had their moments. Staines' opening try and Nick Cotric's two tries kept them competitive for a while. They capitalised on St Helens' early errors and led 12-6 at the break. Their 17 offloads and 42 tackle busts showed creativity with the ball, but they couldn't turn that into points.

Despite leading at half-time, Catalans Dragons struggled defensively. They conceded an average of 31.6 points in their last five games, and their defence couldn't handle St Helens' momentum. St Helens had a clear edge in forward and back ratings, 815 to 747 and 754 to 638, respectively. The Dragons' hooker was a standout, but it wasn't enough to change the outcome.

St Helens were cleaner with the ball, making only nine errors compared to Catalans' 13. This discipline, combined with their physical play, was crucial. St Helens carried the ball for more run metres, asserting their dominance. In contrast, the Dragons couldn't sustain their early promise and suffered their fourth loss in five games.

Our model gave St Helens a 59% win probability, and they delivered, though the margin of victory was larger than expected. The 16-point difference showed St Helens' potential when they hit their stride. Catalans Dragons struggled to find solutions as the match tightened, preventing them from closing the gap.

In the end, St Helens' run metres painted a picture of their dominance. A performance that combined speed and strength left Catalans Dragons searching for answers. St Helens showed why they were favourites, turning the second half into a display of skill and determination.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,315** | Run metres | 1,073 |
| 6 | Line breaks | 6 |
| 25 | Tackle busts | **42** |
| 9 | Offloads | **17** |
| **9** | Errors | 13 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.4 but the actual margin was 16 points. St Helens trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 34–18. The model went 3/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (19/100) — penalties St Helens 8 · Catalans Dragons 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 58.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons +3.5 — model probability 58.8% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 58.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 0 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 59%, but Catalans Dragons stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 120 ELO points clear, 1486 to 1367.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 31.6pts |
| 0.4pts | Avg Margin | -10.0pts |
| 1327.6m | Run Metres | 1075.4m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 305.4 | Tackles | 312.8 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R14 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L · R18 L | 19.6 |
| Catalans Dragons | R14 W · R15 W · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 36 | St Helens | St Helens 56% ✓ |
| 2025 | R11 | St Helens | 40 – 0 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R6 | Catalans Dragons | 13 – 14 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 24 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R7 | Catalans Dragons | 14 – 8 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 7th-ranked middle attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 13th there (2.72 conceded/game). Key man: Welsby, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.94 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 9th there (1.28 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.89/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.56/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.94/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.83/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.61/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.72/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.72/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.11/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 9th) | 0.94/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 10 | 16 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 198m/g | 104m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 89.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 31 | 34 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 467m/g | 503m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.8/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 81.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 10 | 11 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 319m/g | 246m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 92% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.2) +40% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.17/g (lg 0.2) -15% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.29) -17% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.11) -18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 4/15g | 35/66g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 3 | Tristan Sailor | CE | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 15/21g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jake Davies | CE | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jack Campbell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 41' 59' |
| 6 | Harry Robertson | 5/8 | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/18g | 33% | — | 🏉 44' 79' |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/11g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Burns | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/12g | 9% | — | — |
| 10 | Jacob Host | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/7g | 10/41g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Evans | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Alfie Sinclair | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cole Marsh | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 13% | — | 🏉 30' 50' |
| 3 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 13/37g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 7 in 18g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Franck Maria | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Ugo Tison | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 12 | Edenn Rogers-Smith | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Julian Bousquet | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/20g | 0/8g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Matthieu Laguerre | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1486 · Catalans Dragons 1367 · ELO difference: 120 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — St Helens favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-10 23:51 UTC (latest tip update)