# Hull FC v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 22 – 32 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards hunt down Hull FC._

Half time: 0 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 34% / Leigh Leopards 66% · MKM Stadium · Sun, 19 July, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Harvey Barron (47' Tipped ⚡), Cade Cust (51'), Lennon Clark (57'), Harvey Barron (72' Tipped ⚡) · Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Adam Cook (15'), David Armstrong (29' Tipped ⚡), David Armstrong (33' Tipped ⚡), Umyla Hanley (38' Tipped ⚡), Josh Charnley (70' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 66% | Won |
| Hull FC | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 July 2026, 08:59 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 01:27 am_

Hull FC 22–32 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 19 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards beat Hull FC 32–22 at MKM Stadium. Leigh Leopards led 28–0 at half-time and held on.

Josh Charnley opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Harvey Barron (2), Cade Cust and Lennon Clark; Leigh Leopards scored through Josh Charnley (2), Adam Cook, David Armstrong (2) and Umyla Hanley.

Leigh Leopards were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 7 times to 10. Leigh Leopards held the discipline edge, conceding 5 penalties to 7.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| **1,039** | Run metres | 1,006 |
| 6 | Line breaks | 6 |
| **33** | Tackle busts | 25 |
| 11 | Offloads | 11 |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 6 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 4/7 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Leigh Leopards by 11.7 vs the actual margin of 10 points. The model went 9/17 on this match. Leigh Leopards covered the 7.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 44.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties Hull FC 7 · Leigh Leopards 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 66.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards -7.5 — model probability 66.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 66.1% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 12 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 66% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 293 ELO points clear, 1639 to 1346. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 11.7, with the two sides combining for about 46. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull FC | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | 12.0pts |
| 1203.4m | Run Metres | 1225.6m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 5.0 |
| 321.0 | Tackles | 285.0 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | R14 W · R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L | 18.0 |
| Leigh Leopards | R14 W · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Leigh Leopards | 42 – 6 | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards 78% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Hull FC | 18 – 12 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Leigh Leopards | 12 – 26 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Hull FC | 22 – 22 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 4 – 54 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the middle: Super League's 14th-ranked middle attack (1.06 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 9th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Arthur, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.56 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 13th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Charnley, 20 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.94/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.56/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.06/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.61/g (def 6th) | 1.39/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.89/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.78/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.11/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 8 | 7 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 93m/g | 119m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 37 | 46 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 517m/g | 500m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.5/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.6% | 86.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 11 | 10 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 287m/g | 380m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 93.2% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.19) -5% · Props 0.12/g (lg 0.14) -14%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.25) +28% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/10g | 13% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 18/28g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' 72' |
| 3 | Zak Hardaker | CE | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/22g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 8/25g | 34% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/9g | 5/28g | 36% | 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Hugo Salabio | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/10g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 20% | 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/19g | 16% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 15 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/27g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Herman Ese'ese | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 2/25g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Lennon Clark | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 57' |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareth O'Brien | FB | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | David Armstrong | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/1g | 2/1g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' 33' |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 2/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 20 in 16g | 16/10g (0·1·2·2·1·3·0·3·4·0) | 3/1g | 4/4g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 29% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 70' |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Isaac Liu | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Louis Brogan | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Lazarus Vaalepu | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ryan Brown | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Edwin Ipape | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull FC 1346 · Leigh Leopards 1639 · ELO difference: 293 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r19-hull-fc-v-leigh-leopards
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-14 14:27 UTC (latest tip update)