# Bradford Bulls v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 12 – 26 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity see off Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 32% / Wakefield Trinity 68% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Fri, 17 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Ethan Ryan (20' Tipped ⚡), Chris Atkin (50') · Wakefield Trinity: Tom Johnstone (1' 1st Tipped 🎯), Will Tate (29' Tipped ⚡), Jay Pitts (43'), Josh Rourke (68' Tipped ⚡), Harvey Smith (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 68% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.5 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 July 2026, 07:21 am · Last updated: 11 Oct 2026, 08:54 am_

Bradford Bulls 12–26 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 19 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At Bartercard Odsal Stadium, two contrasting styles clashed. Wakefield Trinity focused on making ground, while Bradford Bulls aimed to control the ball. In the end, Wakefield's ambition paid off, winning 26–12.

Wakefield set the pace early. Tom Johnstone scored a try in the first minute, setting the tone. They racked up 1,493 run metres, 215 more than Bradford. Their ability to find gaps was crucial, breaking the line four times compared to Bradford's single effort.

Bradford tried to rely on ball control. Both teams made 11 errors, but Bradford couldn't capitalise. Ethan Ryan and Chris Atkin scored tries, but they lacked further impact. At half-time, they were only trailing 10–6.

Wakefield's second-half performance was decisive. Jay Pitts scored just after the break, with Josh Rourke and Harvey Smith adding their names later. Rourke was busy, scoring a try and converting three times. Wakefield seized their chances well.

Bradford's efforts waned as the game progressed. Their positional strength ratings showed a heavy reliance on their halves and hooker, rated much higher than Wakefield. However, this advantage didn't translate on the field. A strong front-line wasn't enough when they were pushed back.

Bradford's recent form was poor, with just one win from their last five games and conceding an average of 35.2 points. Wakefield, on the other hand, had four wins from their last five and a solid defence, conceding just 18.6 points per game. This pattern continued here.

Discipline favoured Wakefield, who conceded fewer penalties, eight compared to Bradford's 10. A small detail, but significant when the match was tight in the first half.

The model predicted Wakefield to win with a 14.5 point margin, and they delivered almost exactly that. It wasn't a perfect prediction, but it captured the essence. Wakefield pulled ahead comfortably.

In the end, Wakefield's ambitious metres triumphed over Bradford's patient hold. Wakefield executed their plan well, leaving Bradford with lessons to ponder.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1,278 | Run metres | **1,493** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **24** | Tackle busts | 21 |
| **6** | Offloads | 5 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | **8** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 3/5 |
| 10 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 68% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wakefield Trinity by 14.5 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Wakefield Trinity led 6–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 9/17 on this match. Wakefield Trinity covered the 12.5-point line. The 13-24 margin band call landed. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 10 · Wakefield Trinity 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 68.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity -12.5 — model probability 68.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 13-24 — model probability 68.0% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 15 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 68% to see off Bradford Bulls. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 309 ELO points clear, 1668 to 1358. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Bradford Bulls.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 14.5, with the two sides combining for about 48. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 28.6pts |
| 35.2pts | Avg Conceded | 18.6pts |
| -16.8pts | Avg Margin | 10.0pts |
| 1103.4m | Run Metres | 1363.4m |
| 4.8 | Clean Breaks | 7.2 |
| 327.8 | Tackles | 275.4 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 W | 18.4 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R14 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W | 28.6 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Wakefield Trinity lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Wakefield Trinity | 52 – 12 | Bradford Bulls | Wakefield Trinity 84% ✓ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 7th there (0.94 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 10th there (1.39 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.39/g (def 10th) | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.56/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.94/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 8th) | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 14 | 8 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 149m/g | 140m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 90.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 47 | 48 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 499m/g | 440m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.4/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 84.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 16 | 12 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 289m/g | 361m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.06) +50% · Fullbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.25) +40% · Centres 0.59/g (lg 0.49) +20%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.22/g (lg 0.06) +267% · Five-Eighths 0.44/g (lg 0.2) +120% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.25) +76%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 5 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 29% | 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 7 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Guy Armitage | CE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/3g | 21% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 8 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 5/7g | 35% | 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 10 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 3/5g | 4/9g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 6 | Jayden Nikorima | 5/8 | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 24% | 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 50' |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Loghan Lewis | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Fulton | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/7g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Sutton | LK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Mellor | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Riley Dean | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 3 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 65% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 7 in 18g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Will Tate | CE | 5 in 9g | 8/10g (3·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 63% ✓ Scored | 🏉 29' |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (0·2·0·4·0·1·2·1·2·0) | 4/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 20% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 1' |
| 6 | Myles Lawford | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 3 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 10 | Tray Lolesio | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| 14 | Jay Pitts | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 7 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 76' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1358 · Wakefield Trinity 1668 · ELO difference: 309 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-10 21:54 UTC (latest tip update)