# York Knights v Hull FC — Super League Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 20 – 16 Hull FC

_York Knights surge back to conquer Hull FC from 8 down._

Half time: 8 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 51% / Hull FC 49% · LNER Community Stadium · Fri, 10 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: David Nofoaluma (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jonathan Bennison (17'), Denive Balmforth (42'), Nikau Williams (60') · Hull FC: Aidan Sezer (23'), Tom Briscoe (29'), Joe Batchelor (36')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | 51% | Won |
| Hull FC | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 July 2026, 09:05 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 01:26 am_

York Knights 20–16 Hull FC in Super League Round 18 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights edged Hull FC 20–16 at LNER Community Stadium. Trailing 16–8 at half-time, York Knights flipped the game after the break.

David Nofoaluma opened the scoring; York Knights crossed through David Nofoaluma, Jonathan Bennison, Denive Balmforth and Nikau Williams; Hull FC scored through Aidan Sezer, Tom Briscoe and Joe Batchelor.

York Knights were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 7 times to 12. Hull FC were sharper in attack, breaking the line 4 times to 2. York Knights held the discipline edge, conceding 6 penalties to 9. In a 4-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1,261 | Run metres | **1,394** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **32** | Tackle busts | 30 |
| **6** | Offloads | 5 |
| **7** | Errors | 12 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/5 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 7 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted York Knights to win at 51% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting York Knights by 2.3 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 36, within 5 points. York Knights trailed 8–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–16. The model went 6/17 on this match. York Knights covered the 3.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (37/100) — penalties York Knights 6 · Hull FC 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** York Knights to win — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +3.5 — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** York Knights 1-12 — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 2 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between York Knights and Hull FC. The model can't split them, landing on York Knights at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull FC sit 27 ELO points clear, 1371 to 1344, so the model is backing York Knights against the ratings gap. Form leans York Knights' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

On paper Hull FC shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with York Knights, which says Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has York Knights by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 35.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -15.2pts | Avg Margin | -5.6pts |
| 1224.6m | Run Metres | 1154.6m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 282.8 | Tackles | 317.0 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R13 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W | 20.4 |
| Hull FC | R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R16 L · R17 L | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — York Knights lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Hull FC | 16 – 17 | York Knights | Hull FC 65% ✗ |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.24 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 5th there (1.53 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 8th-ranked left edge attack (0.94 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 10th there (1.41 conceded/game). Key man: Litten, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.59/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.41/g (def 10th) | 0.94/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.47/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.24/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.71/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.06/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.94/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 7th) | 0.76/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 14 | 2 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 106m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 90.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 47 | 29 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 440m/g | 509m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 14.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 84.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 14 | 7 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 314m/g | 285m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.2) +35% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.25) +28% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.65/g (lg 0.25) +160% · Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.06) +100% · Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.2) +75%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 17' |
| 3 | Scott Galeano | CE | 9 in 15g | 7/10g (0·3·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 6/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Paul McShane | 5/8 | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | Kieran Buchanan | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 16% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 15 | Paul Vaughan | INT | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Foster | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 5 in 9g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 4 | Zak Hardaker | CE | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 7 | Jakob Arthur | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Lennon Clark | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1344 · Hull FC 1371 · ELO difference: 27 in favour of Hull FC

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull FC |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — York Knights predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 14:26 UTC (latest tip update)