# Wigan Warriors v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 30 – 18 Warrington Wolves

_Wigan Warriors rally to conquer Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 54% / Warrington Wolves 46% · The Brick Community Stadium · Sat, 11 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Josh Cartwright (15'), Taylor Kerr (42'), Zach Eckersley (49' Tipped ⚡), Kian McDermott (63'), Austin Daniel (74') · Warrington Wolves: Albert Hopoate (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Ewan Irwin (9' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (60' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 54% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.5 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 9 July 2026, 05:23 pm · Last updated: 4 Oct 2026, 02:19 pm_

Wigan Warriors 30–18 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 18 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves started strong at The Brick Community Stadium. Albert Hopoate got them on the board early, and Ewan Irwin quickly added to their tally. By half-time, they led 12-6. They had more run metres, 1,301 to Wigan's 1,265, and more tackle busts, 28 to 21. It looked promising. But the second half was a different story.

After the break, Warrington struggled to maintain their momentum. Wigan Warriors turned up the heat, scoring 24 points in the second half while Warrington managed just 6. The final score of 30-18 showed how Warrington's early control slipped away.

Wigan tightened their defence and played with more discipline. They conceded only three penalties compared to Warrington's six. Fewer errors helped too: Wigan made ten, while Warrington made thirteen. This control over possession and territory was key to Wigan's win.

The Warriors' halves were crucial. With a strength rating of 1130 against Warrington's 692, they made a big impact. Adam Keighran was perfect with the boot, converting all five of Wigan's tries. This accuracy helped them make the most of their chances.

Wigan's attack was on point, with Josh Cartwright, Taylor Kerr, Zach Eckersley, Kian McDermott, and Austin Daniel all scoring tries. Warrington's defence couldn't hold up in the second half, and Wigan took full advantage.

Alphr's model predicted a close game, expecting Wigan to win by just 0.5 points. While the model got the winner right, it didn't foresee the 12-point margin. The model's call for a 1-12 point margin was accurate, as was the under 52.5 total points prediction.

Warrington's early form didn't last the full 80 minutes. They had three wins in their last five games, but inconsistency, shown in their WWLWL record, hurt them against a strong Wigan side. Wigan's form was impeccable, with five straight wins and an average score of 39.2 points highlighting their attacking strength.

Ultimately, Wigan Warriors' sharper execution and resilience, especially in the second half, secured their victory. They broke the line seven times, one more than Warrington, and made those chances count. A strong second-half performance, discipline, and determination defined their win. A well-earned victory for the Warriors.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1,265 | Run metres | **1,301** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 6 |
| 21 | Tackle busts | **28** |
| **10** | Offloads | 5 |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 5/5 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | 13 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 0.5 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Wigan Warriors trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 30–18. The model went 8/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (33/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 3 · Warrington Wolves 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 54.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves +7.5 — model probability 54.1% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 54.1% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 1 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wigan Warriors are the call at 54%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 109 ELO points clear, 1695 to 1586. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Warrington Wolves.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Lean Wigan Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 39.2pts | Avg Score | 12.0pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Margin | -4.8pts |
| 1281.4m | Run Metres | 1179.8m |
| 7.0 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 269.0 | Tackles | 341.6 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W | 39.2 |
| Warrington Wolves | R13 W · R14 W · R15 L · R16 W · R17 L | 12.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Warrington Wolves | 23 – 6 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2025 | R21 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 24 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2025 | R10 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 20 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R3 | Wigan Warriors | 48 – 24 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 19 | Wigan Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.76 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 11th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.75 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 7th there (1.76 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.47/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.76/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.81/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.31/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.76/g (def 7th) | 2.75/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.76/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.88/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 11 | 6 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 91m/g | 162m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.9% | 89.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 62 · 28 | 26 · 31 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 510m/g | 384m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.9/g | 12.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.9% | 85% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 11 | 10 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 396m/g | 294m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 93.5% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.2) +40% · Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Wingers 0.9/g (lg 0.99) -9%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.29) -14% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Cartwright | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 15 in 16g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 16/30g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 3 | George Oloughlin | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·0) | 5/11g | 22/45g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Austin Daniel | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 14/68g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Keighran | HB | 9 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/7g | 10/30g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/51g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Kian Mcdermott | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 11 | Lukas Mason | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/31g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/55g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Thompson | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/18g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 17 | Shea connor | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Webster | FB | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 9 in 16g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Toby King | CE | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/15g | 7/15g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 60' |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Ewan Irwin | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/60g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/12g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | James Harrison | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/21g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Benjamin Hartill | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1695 · Warrington Wolves 1586 · ELO difference: 109 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-04 03:19 UTC (latest tip update)