# St Helens v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 0 – 46 Toulouse Olympique

_Toulouse Olympique put St Helens to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 67% / Toulouse Olympique 33% · The BrewDog Stadium · Mon, 13 July, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: none · Toulouse Olympique: Mathieu Jussaume (1' 1st Tipped 🎯), Mathieu Jussaume (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Henry O'Kane (39' Tipped ⚡), Tiaki Chan (48'), Paul Ulberg (56'), Romeo Tropis (68'), Mathieu Jussaume (73' 1st Tipped 🎯), Benjamin Laguerre (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 67% | Lost |
| Toulouse Olympique | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 46 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 July 2026, 07:27 am · Last updated: 4 Oct 2026, 09:39 am_

St Helens 0–46 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 18 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Mathieu Jussaume had St Helens chasing shadows before most of the crowd had settled. His first try came inside the opening minute, his second followed at the 13th, and by the 29th a Jake Shorrocks penalty goal had it at 0-16. Henry O'Kane added another right on the stroke of half-time. Toulouse Olympique were 20 points clear before St Helens had so much as troubled the scoreboard, and the game never got any closer than that.

Final score: St Helens 0, Toulouse Olympique 46. Not a contest so much as a demonstration.

The second half was just the same story with the volume turned up. Tiaki Chan crossed in the 48th, Paul Ulberg in the 56th, Romeo Tropis in the 68th, then Jussaume completed his hat-trick in the 73rd before Benjamin Laguerre rounded it out in the 77th. Six different names on the scoresheet, Jussaume with three of them, and Shorrocks landed every conversion put in front of him.

The stat sheet backs up exactly what the eye saw. Toulouse Olympique ran for 1,298 metres to St Helens' 850, broke the line ten times to three, and racked up 33 tackle busts against 16. St Helens shipped 15 errors to Toulouse's 7 and gave away nine penalties to four. When one side is that far ahead on collisions, ball security and field position all at once, 46 points stops looking like an outlier and starts looking inevitable.

It's a strange one to square with the pre-match numbers. St Helens went in rated 1572 to Toulouse's 1393, with a halves rating of 1538 against just 674 and a hooker rating of 1000 to 642. On paper that's men against boys in the middle of the field. Toulouse's edge was meant to be out wide, 978 to 886 in the backs, and even that gap looks modest next to what actually happened. Whatever St Helens' spine advantage was supposed to deliver, it didn't turn up.

Form lines told a mixed tale too. St Helens arrived having won two of their last five with an average margin of plus 8, Toulouse also two from five but at minus 0.8 and conceding nearly 32 points a game on average. On that reading Toulouse were the leakier side defensively. Not here. St Helens were the ones who couldn't get out of their own half, and a forward pack rated below St Helens' own, 708 to 807, still found 448 more running metres than the supposedly stronger pack across the park.

Alphr's model had St Helens favourites at 67 percent and predicted a 4.7-point win, with a combined total of 44. The total wasn't far off, 46 points landed within two. The margin was another matter entirely, out by more than 41 points, and the model finished 3 from 17 on this one. Toulouse Olympique covered the 17.5-point line with plenty to spare, and the under on 52.5 held up.

Wins and misses, all of it. This was one for the misses column, and a big one.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 850 | Run metres | **1,298** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 16 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| **8** | Offloads | 6 |
| 15 | Errors | **7** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 8 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 7/10 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 15 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Toulouse Olympique defied the model's 67% prediction for St Helens, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.7 but the actual margin was 46 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. Toulouse Olympique led 0–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 3/17 on this match. Toulouse Olympique covered the 17.5-point line. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties St Helens 9 · Toulouse Olympique 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 66.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique +17.5 — model probability 66.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 66.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 67% to see off Toulouse Olympique. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 178 ELO points clear, 1572 to 1393.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back St Helens to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 30.8pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 31.6pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | -0.8pts |
| 1304.6m | Run Metres | 1172.2m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 301.2 | Tackles | 292.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R13 L · R14 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 L | 22.8 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 W | 30.8 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — St Helens lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Toulouse Olympique | 16 – 30 | St Helens |
| 2022 | R27 | St Helens | 36 – 16 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R14 | Toulouse Olympique | 14 – 28 | St Helens |
| 2022 | R6 | Toulouse Olympique | 22 – 20 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.18 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 13th there (1.53 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.12 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 6th there (1.06 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.94/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.47/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.06/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.53/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.94/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.65/g (def 6th) | 1.35/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.76/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.18/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 6th) | 1.12/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 10 | 6 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 201m/g | 121m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 91% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 28 | 36 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 476m/g | 561m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.2/g | 18.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 6 | 17 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 325m/g | 288m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 93.4% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Centres 1/g (lg 0.49) +104% · Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.06) +100% · Wingers 1.76/g (lg 0.98) +80%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.2) -10% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.11) -18% · Wingers 0.78/g (lg 0.98) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 3/3g | 35/65g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/13g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/17g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Tristan Sailor | 5/8 | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 15/20g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Host | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Burns | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 9% | — | — |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 23% | — | — |
| 12 | Jake Davies | 2R | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/7g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Curtis Sironen | INT | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 1/3g | 10/40g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Evans | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Christopher Matagi | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 11 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 3 | Romeo Tropis | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 7 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 6 | Thomas Lacans | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 27% | 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jake Shorrocks | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | 🎯 First Try $67.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 10 in 15g | 9/10g (0·3·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 35% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 1' 13' 73' |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Louis Grossemy | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1572 · Toulouse Olympique 1393 · ELO difference: 178 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — St Helens predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r18-st-helens-v-toulouse-olympique
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-03 22:39 UTC (latest tip update)