# Leigh Leopards v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Leigh Leopards v Castleford Tigers
Sun, 12 July, 12:00 am AEST · Leigh Sports Village Stadium · Round 18

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 78.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +23.5 — model probability 78.6% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 78.6% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 10 · Predicted total: 45

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.8pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 28.8pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 1280.0m | Run Metres | 1386.6m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 297.6 | Tackles | 335.0 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R13 W · R14 W · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W | 26.8 |
| Castleford Tigers | R13 L · R14 L · R15 W · R16 L · R17 L | 19.6 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-20 15:46 UTC (latest tip update)