# Hull KR v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 6 – 20 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity see off Hull KR._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 55% / Wakefield Trinity 45% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sun, 12 July, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: none · Wakefield Trinity: Harvey Smith (8' 1st), Caius Faatili (51'), Caius Faatili (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 55% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 July 2026, 07:38 am · Last updated: 4 Oct 2026, 09:39 am_

Hull KR 6–20 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 18 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity defeated Hull KR 20-6 at Sewell Group Craven Park. The scoreline suggests a comfortable win, but the numbers tell a more nuanced story. At half-time, the teams were locked at 6-6, hinting at a tight contest. However, Wakefield Trinity pulled away in the second half, scoring 14 unanswered points.

Harvey Smith opened the scoring for Wakefield with an early try. Hull KR responded with two penalty goals from Rhyse Martin, levelling the score. Tyson Smoothy then nudged Wakefield ahead with a penalty goal, only for Martin to equalise just before the break.

The second half saw Wakefield's attack come alive. Caius Faatili scored two tries in quick succession, with Smoothy converting both to extend the lead. A further penalty goal from Smoothy at 62 minutes put the game beyond Hull KR's reach. Three scores in eleven minutes shifted the momentum decisively to Wakefield.

Hull KR's 16 errors were costly, handing possession and opportunities to Wakefield. In contrast, Wakefield made only 11 errors, showing greater discipline. They broke the line three times to Hull KR's one and busted 31 tackles compared to 18. When Wakefield attacked, they did so effectively.

Defensively, Hull KR conceded fewer penalties, 8 to Wakefield's 9. However, this slight discipline edge was overshadowed by their inability to contain Wakefield's attack. Pre-match ratings favoured Wakefield in key areas, and this advantage was evident on the field.

Alphr’s model had predicted a 10.2-point win for Hull KR, but Wakefield's performance defied expectations. The model's margin prediction was off by 14 points, and the game's 26 points fell short of the projected 42. Wakefield's win highlighted a gap in the model's predictions.

Both teams came into the match with similar recent form, Hull KR winning 3 of their last 5 games and Wakefield 4. Despite this, Wakefield's superior average scores and conceded points suggested they could outperform expectations. Their average run metres of 1338.2 and clean breaks of 7.8 hinted at their attacking potential, realised in this match.

Wakefield covered the 11.5-point betting line, playing with precision that Hull KR couldn't match. This match serves as a reminder that while stats inform, they don't dictate outcomes. Wakefield's execution on the day outstripped their statistical odds, showing that in sport, anything can happen.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1,262 | Run metres | **1,313** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **3** |
| 18 | Tackle busts | **31** |
| 10 | Offloads | **12** |
| 16 | Errors | **11** |
| **8** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 16 | Errors | 11 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 55% prediction for Hull KR, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.2 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 26 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 42. The model went 2/17 on this match. Wakefield Trinity covered the 11.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties Hull KR 8 · Wakefield Trinity 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 54.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity +11.5 — model probability 54.9% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 54.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 10 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 55%, but Wakefield Trinity stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 88 ELO points clear, 1717 to 1629. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Hull KR.

On paper Wakefield Trinity shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Hull KR, which says ELO Difference and H2H History carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull KR by 10.2, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 29.8pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| 6.4pts | Avg Margin | 7.6pts |
| 1133.4m | Run Metres | 1338.2m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 7.8 |
| 307.2 | Tackles | 274.6 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R13 L · R14 W · R15 W · R16 L · R17 W | 23.6 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R13 W · R14 L · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W | 29.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 24 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R26 | Wakefield Trinity | 28 – 12 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R16 | Hull KR | 34 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R2 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 14 | Hull KR |
| 2023 | R27 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 56 | Hull KR |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 8th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Pratt, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.59/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.88/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) | 1.59/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 4 | 7 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 198m/g | 142m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 90.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 21 | 48 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 609m/g | 437m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.6/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 84.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 11 | 12 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 304m/g | 359m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 9.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.06) +50% · Fullbacks 0.36/g (lg 0.25) +44% · Centres 0.6/g (lg 0.49) +22%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.29) -10% · Centres 0.32/g (lg 0.49) -35% · Wingers 0.62/g (lg 0.99) -37%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Hampshire | FB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (0·0·3·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 12/15g | 14/23g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 13/32g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 7/17g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 13 in 12g | 12/10g (1·1·3·2·2·1·0·0·1·1) | 13/12g | 28/26g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 16 in 16g | 11/10g (0·4·1·0·3·1·1·0·0·1) | 6/11g | 35/52g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 8/31g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/36g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Karl Lawton | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 10 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 7/34g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 5/14g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 14/40g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/55g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 11/56g | 30% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Broadbent | INT | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 13/27g | 30% | — | — |
| 16 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/44g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Will Tate | CE | 5 in 8g | 8/10g (0·3·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 12 in 9g | 12/10g (0·0·2·0·4·0·1·2·1·2) | 14/18g | 2/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyson Smoothy | HB | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/20g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Harvey Smith | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/38g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 14 | Jay Pitts | INT | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·3·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 51' 58' |
| 17 | Myles Lawford | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1717 · Wakefield Trinity 1629 · ELO difference: 88 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-03 22:39 UTC (latest tip update)