# Catalans Dragons v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 6 – 28 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos charge down Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 33% / Leeds Rhinos 67% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 12 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Ugo Tison (79') · Leeds Rhinos: Harry Newman (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Brodie Croft (18' Tipped ⚡), Lachie Miller (36'), Brodie Croft (55' Tipped ⚡), Brodie Croft (66' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 67% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 20.8 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 July 2026, 07:38 am · Last updated: 4 Oct 2026, 02:19 pm_

Catalans Dragons 6–28 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 18 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time, Catalans Dragons were staring at a 16-0 deficit against Leeds Rhinos at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Leeds had already established their dominance, with Harry Newman opening the scoring early. Brodie Croft and Lachie Miller added to the tally, and Jake Connor's conversions kept Leeds comfortably ahead.

The second half followed the same script. Brodie Croft completed his hat-trick by the 66th minute, and Connor's precise kicking stretched the lead to 28-0. Catalans Dragons managed to avoid a shutout with a late try by Ugo Tison, converted by Toby Sexton, but it was merely a consolation in a 28-6 defeat.

Leeds Rhinos' win was built on superior execution. They amassed 1,300 run metres compared to Catalans' 978, finding gaps that the Dragons couldn't close. Leeds broke the line five times, while Catalans managed just two. The Rhinos' aggressive play resulted in 36 tackle busts, more than double the Dragons' 14.

Errors and penalties were a thorn in Catalans' side. They made 16 errors and conceded seven penalties. Leeds, with 15 errors and five penalties, had already done enough damage before these could impact the outcome. The discipline and clean execution were clear differentiators.

Pre-match positional strength ratings favoured Leeds in the forwards and backs. This advantage was evident on the field, as they turned it into metres gained and kept Catalans' defence under pressure. Although Catalans had stronger ratings in the halves and hooker positions, it didn't translate into an effective attack.

Recent form was a precursor to the match's outcome. Leeds had won their last five games, averaging 38 points while conceding just 14. Catalans, with only two wins in their last five, were conceding 34 points on average. On the day, Leeds' form was reaffirmed as they comfortably backed up the numbers.

Our model predicted a Leeds win with a 67% probability and a 20.8-point margin. The Rhinos exceeded expectations slightly with a 22-point victory. The combined score of 34 points was lower than the predicted 50, indicating Catalans were even more subdued in attack than anticipated.

In the end, Catalans Dragons were outclassed by a Leeds side that executed their game plan effectively. While Catalans showed some late spirit, the match was already out of reach. The model's read was sharp, and Leeds ensured it was their night from start to finish.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 978 | Run metres | **1,300** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 14 | Tackle busts | **36** |
| **12** | Offloads | 11 |
| 16 | Errors | **15** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 5 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 16 | Errors | 15 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Leeds Rhinos by 20.8 vs the actual margin of 22 points. The game's 34 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 50. The model went 7/17 on this match. Leeds Rhinos covered the 15.5-point line. The 13-24 margin band call landed. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 7 · Leeds Rhinos 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos -15.5 — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — model probability 67.2% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 21 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 67% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 427 ELO points clear, 1800 to 1373. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Catalans Dragons.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 20.8, with the two sides combining for about 50. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 38.0pts |
| 34.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| -10.4pts | Avg Margin | 24.0pts |
| 1109.8m | Run Metres | 1320.2m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 5.8 |
| 316.6 | Tackles | 256.0 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R13 L · R14 W · R15 W · R16 L · R17 L | 23.6 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W | 38.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Leeds Rhinos | 46 – 4 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2025 | R26 | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 16 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2025 | R4 | Catalans Dragons | 11 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2024 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 6 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2024 | R11 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 6th there (0.94 conceded/game). Key man: Faataape, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.59 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 10th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 28 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.24/g (def 9th) | 0.41/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1.76/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.65/g (def 13th (weak)) | 2.88/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 10th) | 2.59/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.47/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 14 | 23 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 106m/g | 141m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 92.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 43 | 46 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 501m/g | 327m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.6/g | 10.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.3% | 85.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 15 | 14 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 245m/g | 346m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 94% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.2) -15% · Fullbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.25) -16%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · 2nd Rows 0.37/g (lg 0.29) +28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 7 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 37% | — | — |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 2/16g | 13% | — | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 3/25g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/8g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/8g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 3/12g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 7 in 17g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 44% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/12g | 3/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Franck Maria | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Edenn Rogers-Smith | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/8g | 33% | — | — |
| 13 | Julian Bousquet | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 8/57g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Romain Navarrete | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/44g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Ugo Tison | INT | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/7g | 11% | — | 🏉 79' |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 36% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 28 in 16g | 16/10g (1·1·3·1·1·1·2·3·2·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 92% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.37 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·2·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Riley Lumb | WG | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 17 in 16g | 11/10g (4·1·2·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/10g | 1/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 55' 66' |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/20g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/6g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.00 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 5 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/16g | 2/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/15g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1373 · Leeds Rhinos 1800 · ELO difference: 427 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 21 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-04 03:19 UTC (latest tip update)