# Wigan Warriors v St Helens — Super League Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 16 – 14 St Helens

_Wigan Warriors roar back to march past St Helens._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 53% / St Helens 47% · Hill Dickinson Stadium · Mon, 06 July, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Adam Keighran (21' 1st), Jai Field (52' Tipped ⚡), Zach Eckersley (68') · St Helens: Jake Davies (25' Tipped ⚡), Jack Welsby (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 53% | Won |
| St Helens | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.1 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 July 2026, 07:44 am · Last updated: 27 Sept 2026, 04:27 pm_

Wigan Warriors 16–14 St Helens in Super League Round 17 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors led first, trailed at the break, then found the two scores that mattered late enough to matter. Final score 16-14 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, and the shift from chasing to leading in the second half is the whole story of how this one went.

Jackson Hastings put St Helens up with an early penalty goal in the 12th minute, but Adam Keighran got Wigan rolling with a try and conversion that made it 6-2 by the 23rd minute. St Helens didn't sit on that deficit long. Jake Davies crossed four minutes later, Tristan Sailor added the conversion, and it was 6-8 at the break. Wigan went to the sheds behind on the scoreboard against a St Helens halves pairing rated 1538 to their own 865, a big gap on paper that showed up in how the first half played out.

The second half belonged to Wigan. Jai Field scored in the 52nd minute and Keighran's conversion flipped it to 12-8. By the 68th minute Zach Eckersley had stretched it to 16-8, an eight-point buffer that looked like it might be enough to see the game out. St Helens weren't done, though. Jack Welsby scored in the 75th minute and Hastings added the extras to drag it back to 16-14. Wigan had to hold on in the last few minutes, and did.

The stat sheet explains why this stayed tight rather than why Wigan actually won it. St Helens ran for 1,475 metres to Wigan's 1,101, broke the line seven times to three, and busted 42 tackles to 32. By most attacking measures, Saints were the better side across the 80 minutes. Wigan's edge was tidier footy: eight errors to St Helens' 10, and the two second-half tries that counted when it mattered.

St Helens actually held the discipline count too, conceding eight penalties to Wigan's nine, so this wasn't a case of the home side squeezing territory through penalty count. On the underlying numbers, Wigan were arguably second-best for large stretches and still walked away with the points.

Form lines pointed towards a contest like this. Wigan arrived on four wins from their last five, averaging 36.8 points a game, while St Helens had two wins from five and were averaging 22. St Helens' hooker rating of 849 trailed Wigan's 1000, but their halves pairing was the standout number on either team sheet all game, and it showed in their attacking output even in defeat.

Alphr's model had Wigan as 53% favourites going in and called the margin almost perfectly, tipping St Helens by 0.1 point against an actual gap of 2.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1,101 | Run metres | **1,475** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 32 | Tackle busts | **42** |
| 4 | Offloads | **6** |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **8** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 8 | Errors | 10 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 53% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting St Helens by 0.1 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Wigan Warriors trailed 6–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–14. The model went 5/17 on this match. St Helens covered the 12.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (38/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 9 · St Helens 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 52.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens +12.5 — model probability 52.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 52.7% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 0 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Wigan Warriors and St Helens. The model can't split them, landing on Wigan Warriors at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 93 ELO points clear, 1680 to 1588. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and H2H History. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 36.8pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Margin | 4.4pts |
| 1224.4m | Run Metres | 1227.2m |
| 6.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 271.0 | Tackles | 315.4 |
| 8.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R12 L · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W | 36.8 |
| St Helens | R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 W · R16 W | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Wigan Warriors | 38 – 16 | St Helens |
| 2026 | R7 | St Helens | 34 – 24 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2025 | R25 | St Helens | 4 – 18 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2025 | R8 | Wigan Warriors | 24 – 14 | St Helens |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 12 – 4 | Wigan Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 5th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 8th there (1.81 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.56/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 5th (strong)) | 0.94/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.06/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.81/g (def 8th) | 2/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.69/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.75/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 11 | 9 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 92m/g | 197m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 89.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 59 · 27 | 31 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 510m/g | 477m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.9/g | 15.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.1/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.5% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 10 | 15 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 402m/g | 324m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 92.3% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9% · Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.2) -10% · Wingers 0.78/g (lg 0.99) -21%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.29) -17% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.2) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hill Dickinson Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 11 in 12g | 9/10g (2·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·3·0) | 7/9g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 14 in 15g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 62% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 8 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Nathan Lowe | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Kian McDermott | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Oliver Partington | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Taylor Kerr | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Lukas Mason | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Shea Connor | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 6/13g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Tristan Sailor | 5/8 | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/20g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $9.00 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/27g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Davies | 2R | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jacob Host | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1680 · St Helens 1588 · ELO difference: 93 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Wigan Warriors favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 06:27 UTC (latest tip update)