# Wakefield Trinity v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 48 – 6 Castleford Tigers

_Wakefield Trinity put Castleford Tigers to the sword._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 51% / Castleford Tigers 49% · Hill Dickinson Stadium · Sun, 05 July, 09:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Cameron Scott (2' 1st), Tom Johnstone (15' Tipped ⚡), Caleb Uele (23'), Cameron Scott (31' 1st), Lachlan Walmsley (46' Tipped ⚡), Tyson Smoothy (50'), Caleb Uele (60'), Tom Johnstone (63' Tipped ⚡), Josh Rourke (74') · Castleford Tigers: Jason Qareqare (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 51% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.3 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 July 2026, 07:44 am · Last updated: 27 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

Wakefield Trinity 48–6 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 17 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time, Wakefield Trinity led Castleford Tigers 20–0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. The Tigers might have hoped for a comeback, but Wakefield had other plans. They added another 28 points in the second half, finishing the match 48–6. It was a dominant display.

Cameron Scott set the tone with a try just two minutes in. Wakefield were relentless, scoring five tries before Castleford managed to get on the board. Scott scored again, and Caleb Uele also crossed twice, taking advantage of a struggling Tigers defence.

The stats highlight the gap between the teams. Wakefield made 1,530 run metres compared to Castleford's 922. They also dominated line breaks, 14 to 3. Castleford had fewer errors, 12 to Wakefield's 15, but it wasn't enough to counter Wakefield's attacking strength.

Castleford's only try came in the 78th minute through Jason Qareqare, with Tom Weaver adding the conversion. By then, the game was well out of reach. Castleford conceded eight penalties, giving Wakefield more chances to exploit their defensive weaknesses.

Wakefield's positional strengths were evident. Their halves, rated at 1153 to Castleford’s 1049, orchestrated effective plays. Their forwards outperformed Castleford's, 941 to 863. Lachlan Walmsley, Tyson Smoothy, and Josh Rourke also contributed to the scoreline.

Before the match, Alphr's model gave Wakefield a slight edge with a 51% win probability. It predicted a close game, but the 42-point margin was far beyond the expected 3.3 points. The model got the winner right but missed the scale of the victory.

Wakefield's recent form suggested potential, with four wins from their last five games and an average of 24.6 points scored and conceded. Castleford, with two wins from their last five, couldn't maintain pressure despite slightly better average run metres (1,512.4 vs. 1,274).

The performance at Hill Dickinson Stadium was a strong statement from Wakefield. Castleford Tigers were left to reflect on their shortcomings. They'll need to regroup and reassess. For Wakefield, maintaining this momentum is key. Based on this performance, there's plenty to be optimistic about.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,530** | Run metres | 922 |
| **14** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **50** | Tackle busts | 24 |
| 8 | Offloads | **10** |
| 15 | Errors | **12** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 1 |
| 6/9 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 15 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.3 but the actual margin was 42 points. Wakefield Trinity led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (19/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 5 · Castleford Tigers 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 50.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Castleford Tigers +14.5 — model probability 50.6% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — model probability 50.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 3 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Wakefield Trinity and Castleford Tigers. The model can't split them, landing on Wakefield Trinity at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 237 ELO points clear, 1608 to 1371. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Castleford Tigers.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 3.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.6pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 24.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | 3.2pts |
| 1274.0m | Run Metres | 1512.4m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 291.8 | Tackles | 317.8 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R12 W · R13 W · R14 L · R15 W · R16 W | 24.6 |
| Castleford Tigers | R12 W · R13 L · R14 L · R15 W · R16 L | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 52 – 14 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2026 | R7 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 34 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 26 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R10 | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 32 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R8 | Wakefield Trinity | 13 – 12 | Castleford Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Pratt, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.94 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 7th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Mapapalangi, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.56/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 7th) | 0.94/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.81/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.81/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 5 | 4 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 142m/g | 85m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 91.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 33 | 22 · 44 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 434m/g | 397m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 10.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.6% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 10 | 6 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 348m/g | 278m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 5.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.8% | 95.1% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.06) +133% · Wingers 1.49/g (lg 0.99) +51% · Fullbacks 0.37/g (lg 0.25) +48%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.06) +50% · Fullbacks 0.36/g (lg 0.25) +44% · Centres 0.61/g (lg 0.49) +24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hill Dickinson Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Rourke | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 74' |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 2 in 1g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 2' 31' |
| 4 | Will Tate | CE | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (0·0·3·1·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 58% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 10 in 8g | 12/10g (2·0·0·2·0·4·0·1·2·1) | 12/17g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' 63' |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 58% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Jay Pitts | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 23' 60' |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Semi Valemei | WG | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Darnell Mcintosh | CE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/14g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 8 in 15g | 7/10g (0·2·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 5 | Jason Qareqare | WG | 13 in 16g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·1·1·2·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Thomas Weaver | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Ashton Golding | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Hood | INT | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Brock Greacen | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1608 · Castleford Tigers 1371 · ELO difference: 237 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-26 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)