# Leigh Leopards v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 24 – 6 Warrington Wolves

_Leigh Leopards outpace Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 14 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 59% / Warrington Wolves 41% · Hill Dickinson Stadium · Sun, 05 July, 02:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Tesi Niu (5' 1st), David Armstrong (16'), Edwin Ipape (44'), Umyla Hanley (58') · Warrington Wolves: Marc Sneyd (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 59% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.6 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 July 2026, 08:26 am · Last updated: 27 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

Leigh Leopards 24–6 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 17 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards put the squeeze on Warrington Wolves at Hill Dickinson Stadium, winning 24-6 after building an early lead that never looked under threat. The Leopards were 14-0 up at half-time and extended their advantage to 24-0 before Warrington finally got on the board. By then, it was a case of too little, too late.

The Leopards set the tone early. Tesi Niu opened the scoring with a try in the fifth minute, and Adam Cook's conversion made it 6-0. Not long after, Cook added a penalty goal, extending the lead to 8-0. When David Armstrong crossed the line in the 16th minute, it was clear Leigh were up to something. Another penalty goal by Cook on 23 minutes gave them a 14-point cushion going into the break.

Leigh's ability to apply scoreboard pressure was underpinned by their superior run metres, logging 1,531 to Warrington's 1,132. They might not have been perfect, making 14 errors to Warrington's 13, but they outclassed the Wolves in attack, recording four line breaks to two. Their aggression was evident in the tackle busts as well, topping Warrington 45-21 in that department. It wasn't flashy, but it was effective.

Coming into the second half, Warrington had a mountain to climb, and it only got steeper. Edwin Ipape's try in the 44th minute widened the gap to 18-0. When Umyla Hanley crossed the line in the 58th minute, followed by Cook's fourth conversion, the scoreboard read 24-0 and the game was effectively over as a contest.

Warrington's only response came in the 77th minute when Marc Sneyd scored a consolation try, with Ewan Irwin converting to make it 24-6. But by then, Leigh had already done the job. Warrington, although disciplined with fewer errors, conceded too many penalties, giving away seven compared to Leigh's three, and that cost them dearly in field position.

Strategically, Leigh's backline and halves were their strengths coming into the match, rated at 1021 and 785 respectively, compared to Warrington's 968 and 692. This played out on the field with Leigh's incisive running and tactical kicking, making them hard to contain on the attack. Meanwhile, their hooker position was virtually uncontested, with a rating of 1080 against Warrington's 695.

In terms of recent form, Leigh had the edge with an average score of 30.4 points in their last five games compared to Warrington's 16. Despite both teams having a similar win-loss record, Leigh's average winning margin of 16.4 points was markedly better than Warrington’s 1.6. On this occasion, their recent form translated into a comprehensive victory.

Alphr's model had given Leigh a 59% chance of winning. It got the winner right, but the margin was off as Leigh blew past expectations with an 18-point win. The model was closer on the total points, with the match falling short of 45.5. Call it a mixed day at the office.

In the end, Leigh Leopards not only capitalised on their scoring opportunities but also maintained the scoreboard pressure they established early on. Warrington were left chasing shadows and had no answer to Leigh's clinical execution and spirited defence.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,531** | Run metres | 1,132 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **45** | Tackle busts | 21 |
| **7** | Offloads | 2 |
| 14 | Errors | **13** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 14 | Errors | 13 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.6 but the actual margin was 18 points. The model went 2/17 on this match. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (33/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 3 · Warrington Wolves 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 58.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves +7.5 — model probability 58.9% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 58.9% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 2 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leigh Leopards are the call at 59%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 41%. The ratings say otherwise: Warrington Wolves sit 28 ELO points clear, 1624 to 1595, so the model is backing Leigh Leopards against the ratings gap.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 1.6, with the two sides combining for about 37. Lean Leigh Leopards, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 30.4pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Margin | 1.6pts |
| 1300.0m | Run Metres | 1284.0m |
| 6.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 284.8 | Tackles | 324.4 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L · R16 W | 30.4 |
| Warrington Wolves | R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L · R16 W | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 12 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2026 | R7 | Warrington Wolves | 42 – 6 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2025 | R25 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 34 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2025 | R20 | Leigh Leopards | 20 – 16 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R8 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 14 | Warrington Wolves |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.06 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 11th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.87 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 10th there (1.94 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.63/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.56/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.87/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.27/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.38/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.94/g (def 10th) | 2.87/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.06/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.93/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 8 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 123m/g | 162m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.2% | 90% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 24 | 26 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 492m/g | 387m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.3/g | 13/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 85.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 8 | 10 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 391m/g | 297m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 4.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.19) +47% · Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Wingers 0.92/g (lg 0.99) -7%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.19) -5% · Fullbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hill Dickinson Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 8/11g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 5 | Bailey Hodgson | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Cook | HB | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Gareth O'Brien | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Edwin Ipape | INT | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 44' |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ewan Irwin | FB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Webster | WG | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Albert Hopoate | CE | 9 in 15g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | James Harrison | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kelepi Tanginoa | 2R | 4 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Luke Thomas | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 17 | Adam Holroyd | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1624 vs 1595), but the market favours Leigh Leopards (@1.35). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1595 · Warrington Wolves 1624 · ELO difference: 28 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-26 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)