# Leeds Rhinos v Bradford Bulls — Super League Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 50 – 16 Bradford Bulls

_Leeds Rhinos put Bradford Bulls to the sword._

Half time: 30 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 72% / Bradford Bulls 28% · Hill Dickinson Stadium · Mon, 06 July, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Brodie Croft (8' 1st Tipped ⚡), Chris Hankinson (19'), Jarrod O'Connor (25'), James McDonnell (33'), Ash Handley (36' Tipped ⚡), Ash Handley (42' Tipped ⚡), Jake Connor (60'), Maika Sivo (71' Tipped ⚡), Ash Handley (79' Tipped ⚡) · Bradford Bulls: Caleb Aekins (30' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Ryan (51' Tipped ⚡), Ethan Ryan (53' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 72% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.1 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Bradford Bulls Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 July 2026, 07:44 am · Last updated: 27 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

Leeds Rhinos 50–16 Bradford Bulls in Super League Round 17 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model gave Leeds Rhinos a 72% chance of victory over Bradford Bulls, predicting an 11.1-point margin. The actual result was far more decisive. Leeds Rhinos dominated, winning 50–16 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. The match total of 66 points also exceeded the model's expected 49, highlighting Leeds's offensive prowess.

Brodie Croft set the tone early, scoring in the 8th minute. Jake Connor's reliable conversions helped Leeds build pressure. By half-time, Leeds led 30–4, with Bradford's only first-half try coming from Caleb Aekins in the 30th minute. Leeds's early lead was built on solid attacking play and efficient kicking.

Leeds Rhinos outperformed Bradford Bulls in run metres, 1,579 to 893, showcasing their ability to advance the ball. Despite Bradford's slight edge in forward ratings, they couldn't convert it into territorial advantage. Leeds's backs, rated 956 to Bradford's 692, were instrumental, with Ash Handley scoring a hat-trick.

After the break, Bradford showed some fight with Ethan Ryan scoring two quick tries. However, Leeds responded with tries from Jake Connor, Maika Sivo and another from Handley. Connor's kicking was flawless, adding points consistently.

Both teams struggled with errors, but Leeds managed theirs better, committing 11 to Bradford's 14. Bradford's discipline also slipped, conceding 8 penalties to Leeds's 5, giving Leeds extra scoring opportunities.

The model underestimated Leeds's attacking strength and Bradford's defensive weaknesses. Leeds broke the line 10 times compared to Bradford's 6 and recorded 49 tackle busts. Leeds's recent form, with five consecutive wins and an average margin of 27.6 points, suggested dominance. Bradford's single win in their last five games highlighted their struggles.

Pre-match ratings showed Leeds's forwards slightly behind Bradford's, but Leeds excelled in the backs and halves. These strengths translated into a commanding performance, making it difficult for Bradford to compete.

Leeds Rhinos turned potential into reality at Hill Dickinson Stadium, delivering a performance that surpassed expectations. Their relentless attack left Bradford trailing, turning the match into a showcase of Leeds's capabilities.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| **1,579** | Run metres | 893 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 6 |
| **49** | Tackle busts | 16 |
| **13** | Offloads | 8 |
| **11** | Errors | 14 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 3 |
| 7/9 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 11 | Errors | 14 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.1 but the actual margin was 34 points. The game's 66 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 49. Leeds Rhinos led 30–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (19/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 5 · Bradford Bulls 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bradford Bulls +26.5 — model probability 72.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 72.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 11 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 72% to see off Bradford Bulls. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 450 ELO points clear, 1794 to 1344. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Bradford Bulls.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 11.1, with the two sides combining for about 49. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 38.4pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 10.8pts | Avg Conceded | 31.6pts |
| 27.6pts | Avg Margin | -14.0pts |
| 1322.8m | Run Metres | 1176.8m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 265.0 | Tackles | 326.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W | 38.4 |
| Bradford Bulls | R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 2) — Leeds Rhinos lead 2-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Leeds Rhinos | 42 – 12 | Bradford Bulls |
| 2026 | R7 | Bradford Bulls | 12 – 24 | Leeds Rhinos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.63 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 8th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 27 tries in that channel this season.
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 6th there (0.88 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.44/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 6th) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.63/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.31/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.44/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 2.63/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.75/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 5 | 8 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 140m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 92.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 45 · 24 | 28 · 43 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 329m/g | 507m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.1/g | 13.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 5 | 9 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 339m/g | 292m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94% | 94.4% |

**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.25/g (lg 0.06) +317% · Five-Eighths 0.44/g (lg 0.2) +120% · Fullbacks 0.5/g (lg 0.25) +100%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.2) -15% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hill Dickinson Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 27 in 15g | 15/10g (0·1·1·3·1·1·1·2·3·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.25 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $4.50 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' 42' 79' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 25' 60' |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 16 in 15g | 10/10g (0·4·1·2·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 72% ✓ Scored | 🏉 8' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 25' 60' |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 19' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 13 | Cooper Jenkins | LK | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Levi | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Kallum Watkins | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 27% | 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 7 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 22% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Guy Armitage | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 6 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 8 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' 53' |
| 6 | Jayden Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Eribe Doro | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Leon Ruan | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliot Peposhi | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Mitch Souter | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ormondroyd | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Hooley | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1794 · Bradford Bulls 1344 · ELO difference: 450 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-26 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)