# Hull KR v Hull FC — Super League Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 26 – 12 Hull FC

_Hull KR fly past Hull FC._

Half time: 12 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 70% / Hull FC 30% · Hill Dickinson Stadium · Sun, 05 July, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Mikey Lewis (16' 1st Tipped 🎯), Rhyse Martin (23' Tipped ⚡), Jai Whitbread (66' Tipped ⚡), Tyrone May (72') · Hull FC: Jake Arthur (27'), Tom Briscoe (43')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 70% | Won |
| Hull FC | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.1 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 July 2026, 08:26 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 01:26 am_

Hull KR 26–12 Hull FC in Super League Round 17 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR beat Hull FC 26–12 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Hull KR led 12–4 at half-time and held on.

Mikey Lewis opened the scoring; Hull KR crossed through Mikey Lewis, Rhyse Martin, Jai Whitbread and Tyrone May; Hull FC scored through Jake Arthur and Tom Briscoe.

Hull FC were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 11 times to 14. Hull KR made the hard metres, carrying for 1,152 run metres. Hull KR held the discipline edge, conceding 6 penalties to 9.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| **1,152** | Run metres | 966 |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 24 | Tackle busts | **26** |
| **7** | Offloads | 6 |
| 14 | Errors | **11** |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 14 | Errors | 11 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 70% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hull KR by 10.1 vs the actual margin of 14 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. Hull FC covered the 17.5-point line. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (22/100) — penalties Hull KR 6 · Hull FC 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 70.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC +17.5 — model probability 70.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 70.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 10 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 70% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 330 ELO points clear, 1709 to 1379. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Hull KR by 10.1, with the two sides combining for about 46. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 30.8pts | Avg Score | 14.4pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Margin | -10.0pts |
| 1267.2m | Run Metres | 1145.2m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 302.4 | Tackles | 328.0 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R12 W · R13 L · R14 W · R15 W · R16 L | 30.8 |
| Hull FC | R12 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R16 L | 14.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Hull FC | 20 – 34 | Hull KR | Hull KR 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Hull KR | 24 – 6 | Hull FC | Hull KR 79% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Hull KR | 18 – 4 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Hull FC | 14 – 28 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 34 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 12th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull FC's best path is the right edge: Super League's 12th-ranked right edge attack (0.75 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 9th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Barron, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.4/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.47/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.06/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.07/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 9th) | 0.75/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 4 | 2 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 202m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 90.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 20 | 28 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 616m/g | 516m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.9/g | 14.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 84.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 11 | 7 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 299m/g | 288m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 92.1% |

**Who scores on Hull FC** — Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.29) -10% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.49) -33% · Wingers 0.62/g (lg 0.99) -37%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hill Dickinson Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Hampshire | FB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 9 in 15g | 7/10g (0·0·0·3·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Jack Broadbent | WG | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 15 in 15g | 10/10g (0·0·4·1·0·3·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 18% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 16' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Jai Whitbread | PR | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Karl Lawton | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Noah Booth | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 31% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 8/18g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 3 | Zak Hardaker | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 58% | 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Lennon Clark | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | James Bell | LK | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Cade Cust | INT | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jeremiah Matautia | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jed Cartwright | INT | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1709 · Hull FC 1379 · ELO difference: 330 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r17-hull-kr-v-hull-fc
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-10-14 14:26 UTC (latest tip update)