# Huddersfield Giants v York Knights — Super League Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Huddersfield Giants 24 – 36 York Knights

_York Knights lay siege to Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Huddersfield Giants 52% / York Knights 48% · Hill Dickinson Stadium · Sat, 04 July, 09:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Huddersfield Giants: Chris Patolo (18'), Zane Dunford (44'), Oliver Russell (73'), George Flanagan (77' Tipped ⚡) · York Knights: Jonathan Bennison (11' 1st Tipped 🎯), Cody Hunter (23' Tipped ⚡), David Nofoaluma (37' Tipped ⚡), Nikau Williams (49'), Denive Balmforth (55'), Cody Hunter (59' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Bennison (68' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | 52% | Lost |
| York Knights | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Huddersfield Giants vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 July 2026, 08:26 am · Last updated: 27 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

Huddersfield Giants 24–36 York Knights in Super League Round 17 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

York Knights took the lead early and never looked back, defeating Huddersfield Giants 36-24 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Jonathan Bennison got York on the board in the 11th minute, setting the tone for a match where Huddersfield found themselves chasing the game. By half-time, York led 14-6, with Huddersfield struggling to keep pace.

Huddersfield managed to level the score through Chris Patolo in the 18th minute, with George Flanagan's conversion giving them a brief lead. However, York quickly regained control, with Cody Hunter scoring just two minutes later. David Nofoaluma's try before the break extended York's lead to 14-6, a gap they would maintain and build upon in the second half.

York's attacking edge was clear, breaking the line 10 times compared to Huddersfield's 5. This ability to penetrate the defence was crucial, especially after the break. Zane Dunford's try for Huddersfield early in the second half narrowed the margin to 14-12, but York responded decisively. Tries from Nikau Williams, Denive Balmforth, Cody Hunter, and Jonathan Bennison saw York pull away to a commanding 36-12 lead by the 68th minute.

Huddersfield did not give up, with Oliver Russell and George Flanagan scoring late tries to reduce the deficit. Flanagan's conversions brought the final score to 36-24, but it was not enough to threaten York's dominance.

Despite Huddersfield's higher pre-match ratings in the forwards and backs, York's hooker, with a rating of 914, proved instrumental in dictating the pace and flow of the game. Huddersfield's hooker, rated at 635, struggled to match this influence.

Errors were not the deciding factor, as Huddersfield committed fewer mistakes, 8 to York's 10. However, York's discipline was superior, conceding only 3 penalties compared to Huddersfield's 8, which helped them maintain control.

Alphr's model had predicted a close match, with York expected to win by just 0.9 points. The actual 12-point margin was a significant deviation, as was the total of 60 points scored, far exceeding the model's prediction of 42. This reflected the open and attacking nature of the game.

For Huddersfield, this defeat continues a troubling run of form. York, on the other hand, will take confidence from this performance, having defied both the odds and their recent struggles. They leave with a well-earned victory and a boost in momentum.

**Key Match Stats**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **1,387** | Run metres | 1,377 |
| 5 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | **39** |
| **16** | Offloads | 11 |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 7 |
| 4/4 | Goals | 4/7 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 8 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

York Knights defied the model's 52% prediction for Huddersfield Giants, a notable result. The predicted margin of 0.9 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The game's 60 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 6/17 on this match. York Knights covered the 8.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (43/100) — penalties Huddersfield Giants 8 · York Knights 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Huddersfield Giants to win — model probability 51.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +8.5 — model probability 51.6% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Huddersfield Giants 1-12 — model probability 51.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: York Knights by 1 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Huddersfield Giants and York Knights. The model can't split them, landing on Huddersfield Giants at 52%. The ratings say otherwise: York Knights sit 91 ELO points clear, 1322 to 1231, so the model is backing Huddersfield Giants against the ratings gap. Form leans York Knights' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Huddersfield Giants.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 11.4pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 38.2pts | Avg Conceded | 38.0pts |
| -26.8pts | Avg Margin | -20.4pts |
| 1048.4m | Run Metres | 1201.4m |
| 2.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 345.2 | Tackles | 282.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L | 11.4 |
| York Knights | R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L · R16 W | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 2) — Huddersfield Giants lead 2-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | York Knights | 22 – 24 | Huddersfield Giants |
| 2026 | R7 | Huddersfield Giants | 34 – 14 | York Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.31 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 13th there (2.69 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 5th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 14th there (2.81 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Huddersfield Giants | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.44/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 8th) | 0.56/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.31/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.81/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2.69/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.94/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.56/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.19/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 17 | 9 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 108m/g | 109m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 37 | 24 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 479m/g | 442m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 11.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.8% | 87.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 13 | 9 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 294m/g | 311m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 92.1% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.25) +152% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.06) +117% · Wingers 1.75/g (lg 0.99) +77%
**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.19) +79% · Centres 0.73/g (lg 0.49) +49% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hill Dickinson Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| 2 | Adam Swift | WG | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tanguy Zenon | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 4 | Connor Wrench | CE | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Taane Milne | WG | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 6 | Tuimoala Lolohea | 5/8 | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Oliver Russell | HB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 8 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Chris Patolo | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 11 | Asher O'Donnell | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Zane Dunford | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 13 | Mathieu Cozza | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Cole Geyer | INT | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Tristan Powell | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Rushton | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Greenwood | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' 68' |
| 3 | Scott Galeano | CE | 9 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·3·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 61% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 5 | David Nofoaluma | WG | 9 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Paul McShane | 5/8 | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $31.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 59' |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Kieran Buchanan | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 15 | Paul Vaughan | INT | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Kieran Hudson | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** York Knights hold the ELO advantage (1322 vs 1231), but the market favours Huddersfield Giants (@1.35). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Huddersfield Giants 1231 · York Knights 1322 · ELO difference: 91 in favour of York Knights

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | York Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | York Knights |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Huddersfield Giants |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-26 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)