# Catalans Dragons v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 18 – 60 Toulouse Olympique

_Toulouse Olympique run riot over Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 12 – 32 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 64% / Toulouse Olympique 36% · Stade Pierre-Fabre, Castres · Sun, 05 July, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Kruise Leeming (12'), Matthieu Laguerre (18'), Toby Sexton (43') · Toulouse Olympique: Luke Polselli (6' 1st), Brendan Hands (26'), Mathieu Jussaume (29' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Lacans (32' Tipped ⚡), Brendan Hands (37'), Olly Ashall-Bott (53' Tipped ⚡), Paul Ulberg (58'), Olly Ashall-Bott (64' Tipped ⚡), Mathieu Jussaume (70' Tipped ⚡), Luke Polselli (74' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 64% | Lost |
| Toulouse Olympique | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.5 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 3 July 2026, 08:26 am · Last updated: 27 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

Catalans Dragons 18–60 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 17 at Stade Pierre-Fabre, Castres. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique's first-half blitz set the tone for their commanding 60-18 victory over Catalans Dragons at Stade Pierre-Fabre. Luke Polselli kicked things off in the sixth minute, sparking a scoring spree that saw Toulouse take a 32-12 lead into the break. Catalans Dragons briefly led 12-8 after tries from Kruise Leeming and Matthieu Laguerre, both converted by Toby Sexton, but Toulouse's response was swift and decisive.

Brendan Hands and Mathieu Jussaume each crossed the line, with Thomas Lacans adding another try during a 13-minute stretch that left Catalans reeling. Jake Shorrocks was flawless with his conversions, ensuring Toulouse maintained their momentum. By half-time, the Dragons were already facing an uphill battle.

Toulouse Olympique's dominance was evident across the board. They outperformed Catalans in run metres, tallying 1,449 to the Dragons' 859, and broke the line seven times compared to Catalans' five. Their backline, rated significantly stronger before the match, lived up to expectations. Olly Ashall-Bott's two tries highlighted their attacking prowess, slicing through the Catalans' defence with ease.

Discipline and ball control were also in Toulouse's favour. They committed fewer errors, losing possession just five times against Catalans' six. The Dragons were more penalty-prone, conceding seven to Toulouse's five. These small margins compounded Catalans' struggles, as they failed to gain any meaningful control over the game.

The second half saw a brief resurgence from Catalans, with Toby Sexton scoring and converting his try just three minutes in. However, Toulouse quickly resumed their first-half form. Ashall-Bott scored again in the 53rd minute, followed by tries from Paul Ulberg and Jussaume. Polselli capped off the scoring with his second try, underscoring Toulouse's attacking depth.

Toulouse's physical dominance was clear, with 32 tackle busts showcasing their strength in one-on-one situations. Their well-drilled approach outmatched Catalans strategically and physically, leaving the Dragons unable to mount a serious challenge.

Alphr's model had favoured Catalans Dragons, giving them a 64% chance of winning with a predicted margin of 5.5 points. Yet, Toulouse defied expectations, surpassing the predicted total points with ease. The Dragons were left to regroup, while Toulouse celebrated a well-earned and unexpected triumph.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 859 | Run metres | **1,449** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | **32** |
| 10 | Offloads | **16** |
| 6 | Errors | **5** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 10 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 10/11 |
| 7 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 6 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Toulouse Olympique defied the model's 64% prediction for Catalans Dragons, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.5 but the actual margin was 42 points. The game's 78 points came in 37 points higher than the predicted 41. Toulouse Olympique led 12–32 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 4/17 on this match. Toulouse Olympique covered the 12.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 7 · Toulouse Olympique 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 64.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique +12.5 — model probability 64.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — model probability 64.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 6 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Catalans Dragons are the call at 64%, but Toulouse Olympique stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 126 ELO points clear, 1447 to 1321. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Toulouse Olympique.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 5.5, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Catalans Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 32.4pts |
| 0.8pts | Avg Margin | -10.0pts |
| 1204.8m | Run Metres | 1111.4m |
| 5.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 306.2 | Tackles | 316.4 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R12 W · R13 L · R14 W · R15 W · R16 L | 27.2 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Catalans Dragons lead 4-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Toulouse Olympique | 16 – 18 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2026 | R7 | Catalans Dragons | 33 – 26 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R25 | Toulouse Olympique | 14 – 24 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2022 | R8 | Catalans Dragons | 18 – 10 | Toulouse Olympique |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.06 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 14th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Faataape, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.06/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 9th) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.63/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.5/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.13/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.56/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 11 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 110m/g | 121m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 91.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 38 | 31 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 512m/g | 554m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.8/g | 18.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.8% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 13 | 15 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 243m/g | 283m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 93.6% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.06) +117% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.49) +104% · Wingers 1.88/g (lg 0.99) +90%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.19) +26%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Pierre-Fabre, Castres. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 7 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | — |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 8 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lenny Marc | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Alexis Lis | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olly Ashall-Bott | FB | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' 64' |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | 🏉 6' 74' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Shorrocks | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 26' 37' |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.75 AI 61% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·3·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' 70' |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1447 · Toulouse Olympique 1321 · ELO difference: 126 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-26 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)