# Warrington Wolves v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 18 – 16 Catalans Dragons

_Warrington Wolves hit back to run down Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 73% / Catalans Dragons 27% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Fri, 26 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Matty Ashton (14' 1st), Albert Hopoate (46' Tipped ⚡), James Bentley (62') · Catalans Dragons: Zac Lipowicz (21'), Nick Cotric (32'), Lewis Dodd (69' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 73% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.7 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 June 2026, 08:15 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:49 pm_

Warrington Wolves 18–16 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 16 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington Wolves turned the game around in the second half to edge Catalans Dragons 18–16 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Trailing 10–6 at half-time, Warrington came out firing after the break. Albert Hopoate's try in the 46th minute and James Bentley's in the 62nd were crucial. Ewan Irwin's conversions pushed them to an 18–10 lead. Catalans responded with a try from Lewis Dodd in the 69th minute, but it wasn't enough. 

Warrington's handling was cleaner, with only eight errors compared to Catalans' ten. They were aggressive in attack, breaking through 38 tackles, while Catalans managed 27. Warrington also found five line breaks to Catalans' four, showing a sharper edge.

Discipline was key. Warrington conceded just four penalties, while Catalans gave away 11. These mistakes handed Warrington extra possession and territory, crucial in a tight match.

The physical contest was as expected. Catalans had stronger forwards, rated 821 to Warrington's 815. However, Warrington's backs and running game were superior, with 1,272 run metres to Catalans' 1,190. Their backline rating of 1089 outshone the Dragons' 1058, giving them an edge when spreading the ball wide.

The model's pre-match read was spot on, giving Warrington a 73% chance to win and predicting a 2.7-point margin. The actual 2-point victory confirmed its accuracy. Catalans covered the 10.5-point line, and the game fell under the 50.5-point total, aligning with expectations.

Recent form suggested a close contest. Warrington had won four of their last five matches, while Catalans had mixed results, showing defensive weaknesses. Catalans conceded an average of 34.4 points, close to the 26 they scored, reflecting inconsistency that cost them here.

Ultimately, Warrington seized their moment. Their second-half surge and discipline turned the match in their favour against a Catalans side with opportunities but lacking composure. It was a knife-edge contest, and Warrington held firm.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,272** | Run metres | 1,190 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **38** | Tackle busts | 27 |
| **7** | Offloads | 2 |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 11 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 2/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 11 |
| 8 | Errors | 10 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 73% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warrington Wolves by 2.7 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Warrington Wolves trailed 6–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–16. The model went 6/17 on this match. Catalans Dragons covered the 10.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Controversial** (57/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 4 · Catalans Dragons 11.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 72.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons +10.5 — model probability 72.8% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 72.8% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 3 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 73% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 152 ELO points clear, 1612 to 1460. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Catalans Dragons.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 2.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Warrington Wolves to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Conceded | 34.4pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | -8.4pts |
| 1256.6m | Run Metres | 1124.8m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 5.0 |
| 330.4 | Tackles | 292.6 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L | 17.2 |
| Catalans Dragons | R11 L · R12 W · R13 L · R14 W · R15 W | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Catalans Dragons | 38 – 22 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R22 | Warrington Wolves | 30 – 22 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2025 | R18 | Catalans Dragons | 20 – 24 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R2 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 12 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 32 | Catalans Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 12th there (2.6 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.93 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 11th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.29/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.13/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.8/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.6/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.93/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 13 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 165m/g | 110m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 89.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 27 | 32 · 37 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 394m/g | 505m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.6/g | 16.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 81% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 2 | 10 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 295m/g | 248m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.19) +42% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 0.91/g (lg 0.99) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 7/12g | 29/55g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 8 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 6/8g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 58% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Arron Lindop | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 14' |
| 6 | Ewan Irwin | 5/8 | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Leon Hayes | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 9/62g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thomas | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/16g | 7% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 3/10g | 12% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 12 | Ben Currie | 2R | 3 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 16/70g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | James Harrison | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/29g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (4·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 5/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/7g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 2 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 9% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 3 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| 5 | Lenny Marc | WG | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Toby Sexton | 5/8 | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Lewis Dodd | HB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/10g | 3/5g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/17g | 2/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Franck Maria | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 5 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 13 | Ben Garcia | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Matthieu Laguerre | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1612 · Catalans Dragons 1460 · ELO difference: 152 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:49 UTC (latest tip update)