# Toulouse Olympique v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 16 – 40 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards outpace Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 0 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 28% / Leigh Leopards 72% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sun, 28 June, 01:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Ethan Quai-Ward (57'), Rob Butler (65'), Reubenn Rennie (68') · Leigh Leopards: Josh Charnley (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Josh Charnley (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Josh Charnley (22' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jacob Alick-Wiencke (32' Tipped ⚡), Innes Senior (43'), Josh Charnley (45' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tesi Niu (49' Tipped ⚡), Liam Horne (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 72% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 June 2026, 09:04 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:49 pm_

Toulouse Olympique 16–40 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 16 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Toulouse Olympique faced a tough challenge against Leigh Leopards, ultimately falling 40–16 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Despite a spirited second-half effort with tries from Ethan Quai-Ward, Rob Butler, and Reubenn Rennie, the damage was done early. Toulouse struggled to keep pace with Leigh's dynamic play.

From the start, Toulouse's forwards were outmatched, managing 939 run metres compared to Leigh's 1,205. Both teams recorded 26 tackle busts, but Leigh's ability to break the line ten times to Toulouse's four was telling. Errors also plagued Toulouse, with 11 compared to Leigh's eight, giving the Leopards extra chances they capitalised on.

Josh Charnley was a standout for Leigh, scoring four tries. He opened the scoring just four minutes in and completed his hat-trick by the 22nd minute. By half-time, Leigh had built an 18–0 lead, with Adam Cook converting to keep the pressure on Toulouse.

In the second half, Toulouse showed some fight. After Innes Senior and Charnley extended Leigh's lead, Ethan Quai-Ward got Toulouse on the board in the 57th minute. Tries from Rob Butler and Reubenn Rennie followed, with Jake Shorrocks converting twice to narrow the gap to 16-34. There was a glimmer of hope for the home side.

However, Leigh sealed the game with a late try from Liam Horne, converted by Cook. Leigh's cleaner possession and sharper attack were evident throughout, attributes Toulouse couldn't match on the day.

Leigh's backs were particularly dominant, rated at 1,123 compared to Toulouse's 748. Coming into the match, Leigh had won three of their last five games, showcasing their stronger form. Their defence was solid, conceding an average of 14.8 points per game compared to Toulouse's 29.2.

Alphr's model predicted a Leigh win with a 72% probability. While the model underestimated the margin, predicting an 11-point victory, Leigh exceeded expectations with a 24-point win. Toulouse's inability to leverage their hooker's strength, their only positional advantage, highlighted areas for improvement. Despite the loss, Toulouse's second-half fightback showed resilience, a positive sign for future matches. Leigh, however, were simply the better side on the day.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 939 | Run metres | **1,205** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | 26 |
| 8 | Offloads | **12** |
| 11 | Errors | **8** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 8 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 4/8 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 11 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (3/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 4 · Leigh Leopards 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 72.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique +16.5 — model probability 72.1% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 72.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 11 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 72% to see off Toulouse Olympique. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 242 ELO points clear, 1580 to 1337. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Toulouse Olympique.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 11.0, with the two sides combining for about 43. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.4pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| -6.8pts | Avg Margin | 10.8pts |
| 1181.8m | Run Metres | 1345.4m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 6.0 |
| 328.0 | Tackles | 294.8 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L | 22.4 |
| Leigh Leopards | R11 L · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 L | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Leigh Leopards lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Leigh Leopards | 21 – 20 | Toulouse Olympique |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the middle: Super League's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.13 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 10th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Ashall-Bott, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.47 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 11th there (1.47 conceded/game). Key man: Charnley, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.47/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.47/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.53/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.13/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 6th) | 1.4/g (att 10th) · concedes 2/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.47/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.93/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 5 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 125m/g | 121m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 42 | 34 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 559m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.5/g | 13.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.9% | 86.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 9 | 9 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 288m/g | 397m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.6% | 93% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.19) -5% · Fullbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.25) -12%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.06) +117% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.49) +104% · Wingers 1.67/g (lg 0.99) +69%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Rouge | FB | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 2 | Mathieu Pons | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reubenn Rennie | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 11% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 4/5g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Shorrocks | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Lambert Belmas | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Ajahni Wallace | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Robert Butler | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 65' |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/3g | 1/1g | 36% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 16 in 14g | 15/10g (1·2·0·1·2·2·1·3·0·3) | 4/2g | 2/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.44 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 25% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 13' 22' 45' |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 32' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Bailey Hodgson | INT | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Owen Trout | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Edwin Ipape | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1337 · Leigh Leopards 1580 · ELO difference: 242 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:49 UTC (latest tip update)