# Leeds Rhinos v Hull KR — Super League Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 34 – 8 Hull KR

_Leeds Rhinos run riot over Hull KR._

Half time: 18 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 65% / Hull KR 35% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 27 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Chris Hankinson (30' 1st), Maika Sivo (35' Tipped ⚡), Maika Sivo (44' Tipped ⚡), Jake Connor (57'), Ash Handley (69') · Hull KR: Noah Booth (55')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 65% | Won |
| Hull KR | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 June 2026, 08:15 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:49 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 34–8 Hull KR in Super League Round 16 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty-one tackle busts to fourteen. That's the number that explains Leeds Rhinos 34, Hull KR 8 at AMT Headingley Stadium, and everything else in the box score just confirms it.

Leeds ran for 1,452 metres to Hull KR's 707, more than double, and broke the line six times to one. When you're getting that much go-forward and Hull KR are barely dinting the line, the scoreboard was always going to look lopsided. It did.

Jake Connor set the tone early with a penalty goal in the sixth minute, Rhyse Martin levelled it up from the tee not long after, and for a while it looked like a arm wrestle. Then Leeds found another gear. Chris Hankinson opened the try-scoring in the 30th minute, Maika Sivo crossed twice either side of the half-hour mark, and by the break Leeds led 18-2. Hull KR's only points in that stretch came from Martin's boot.

The second half was Leeds cleaning up. Sivo's second try in the 44th minute made it 22-2, and a Connor try just after the hour, converted by the man himself, pushed it to 30-8 after Noah Booth had given Hull KR their only try of the night. Ash Handley put the finishing touch on in the 69th minute. Once Leeds hit 24-2, Hull KR were never getting back into it.

Discipline actually favoured Hull KR, who conceded seven penalties to Leeds' eight, so this wasn't won on cheap field position. It was won with the ball in hand. Leeds also protected possession better, coughing it up 12 times to Hull KR's 14, which matters when you're already dominating the collision.

The pre-match numbers had this as a genuine coin toss on paper, Leeds rated 1755 to Hull KR's 1749, with the model actually expecting Hull KR by less than a point. Hull KR came in with the stronger halves rating, 999 to 949, and a big edge at hooker, 1000 to 826, which usually buys you control of the ruck and the middle. None of it showed up. Leeds' forward pack, rated 1039 against 927, did the damage instead, and the 17 offloads to 9 tells you Leeds were finding space and giving it away in support, not just running into bodies.

Hull KR arrived on the back of a WWLWW form line and had actually been outscoring Leeds on average over their last five, 33.2 points to 32.4. None of that travelled. Leeds' pack physicality won the collisions, the line breaks followed, and Hull KR's forwards never got the shape to compete.

Alphr's model called the win at 65 percent for Leeds Rhinos, which held up fine. The margin read was where it fell over, tipped at under a point when the actual gap was 26. The under on the total, set at 44.5, came in correct. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one was a reminder that a close rating on paper doesn't always mean a close game on the field.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,452** | Run metres | 707 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **51** | Tackle busts | 14 |
| **17** | Offloads | 9 |
| **12** | Errors | 14 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **7** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 7/8 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 12 | Errors | 14 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 26 points. Leeds Rhinos led 18–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 3/17 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (10/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 8 · Hull KR 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 65.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR +6.5 — model probability 65.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 65.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 1 · Predicted total: 35

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 65% to see off Hull KR.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Venue Advantage and H2H History. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Leeds Rhinos to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 32.4pts | Avg Score | 33.2pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 12.0pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Margin | 21.2pts |
| 1320.0m | Run Metres | 1336.8m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 6.2 |
| 283.8 | Tackles | 296.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R11 L · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W | 32.4 |
| Hull KR | R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R14 W · R15 W | 33.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Hull KR | 6 – 58 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2025 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 28 – 6 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R17 | Hull KR | 8 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2025 | R9 | Leeds Rhinos | 14 – 20 | Hull KR |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull KR | 26 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.67 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 8th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 25 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.21 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.47/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 6th) | 1.43/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.6/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 3.21/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 2.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.53/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.14/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 5 | 23 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.6/g |
| Run Metres | 138m/g | 210m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 9.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.1% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 23 | 35 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 337m/g | 639m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.5/g | 12.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 78.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 5 | 11 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 336m/g | 309m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.8/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 92% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.28) -7% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.49) -33% · Wingers 0.6/g (lg 0.99) -39%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.19) -11% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 7/25g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 25 in 14g | 16/10g (3·0·1·1·3·1·1·1·2·3) | 4/1g | 14/7g | 88% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' 44' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·1) | 4/14g | 15/29g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 69' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 10/22g | 34% | 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/18g | 5/21g | 14% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 16 in 14g | 11/10g (1·0·4·1·2·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/11g | 14/30g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 3/26g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 30' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 8/32g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 4/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/33g | 6% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 15 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 5 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/20g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Holroyd | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/14g | 4/26g | 14% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 2/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 9 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·2·0) | 11/17g | 1/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 0/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/17g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Noah Booth | WG | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 15 in 14g | 13/10g (3·0·0·4·1·0·3·1·1·0) | 3/9g | 2/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Dean Hadley | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/18g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Karl Lawton | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Jai Whitbread | 2R | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/10g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 5/14g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Bill Leyland | INT | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Jnr | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1755 · Hull KR 1749 · ELO difference: 6 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 35 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:49 UTC (latest tip update)