# Hull FC v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 16 – 20 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors rally to march past Hull FC._

Half time: 10 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 21% / Wigan Warriors 79% · MKM Stadium · Sun, 28 June, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Lewis Martin (5' 1st), Harvey Barron (20' Tipped ⚡), Jed Cartwright (53' Tipped ⚡) · Wigan Warriors: Zach Eckersley (16' Tipped ⚡), Noah Hodkinson (44' Tipped ⚡), Adam Keighran (60'), Harry Smith (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 79% | Won |
| Hull FC | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.8 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 June 2026, 09:04 pm · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 01:26 am_

Hull FC 16–20 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 16 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors edged Hull FC 20–16 at MKM Stadium. Trailing 10–4 at half-time, Wigan Warriors flipped the game after the break.

Lewis Martin opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Lewis Martin, Harvey Barron and Jed Cartwright; Wigan Warriors scored through Zach Eckersley, Noah Hodkinson, Adam Keighran and Harry Smith.

Hull FC were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 10 times to 14. Hull FC made the hard metres, carrying for 1,245 run metres. Wigan Warriors held the discipline edge, conceding 6 penalties to 12. In a 4-point arm-wrestle, those margins proved the difference.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **1,245** | Run metres | 1,083 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| **45** | Tackle busts | 42 |
| 5 | Offloads | 5 |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| 12 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 2/6 |
| 12 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | 14 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 79% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wigan Warriors by 6.8 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Wigan Warriors trailed 10–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–20. The model went 8/17 on this match. Hull FC covered the 25.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 56.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (48/100) — penalties Hull FC 12 · Wigan Warriors 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 79.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC +25.5 — model probability 79.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 79.3% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 56.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 7 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 79% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 286 ELO points clear, 1673 to 1387. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 6.8, with the two sides combining for about 44. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull FC | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 14.0pts | Avg Score | 37.6pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -9.6pts | Avg Margin | 15.2pts |
| 1139.8m | Run Metres | 1220.4m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 6.6 |
| 335.0 | Tackles | 285.6 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 7.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L | 14.0 |
| Wigan Warriors | R11 W · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W | 37.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Wigan Warriors | 34 – 6 | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors 80% ✓ |
| 2025 | R19 | Wigan Warriors | 12 – 32 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R9 | Hull FC | 12 – 36 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Hull FC | 4 – 46 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 4 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.73 conceded/game). Key man: Litten, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 13th there (1.53 conceded/game). Key man: Hodkinson, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.53/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.07/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.47/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.13/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.87/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.73/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.73/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 12 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 90m/g | 94m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 79.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 33 | 56 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 515m/g | 519m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.1/g | 13.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 81.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 9 | 8 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 282m/g | 415m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 92.5% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.28) -11% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.19) -16%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.25) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 21% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 4 in 8g | 7/10g (1·2·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 17/27g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/21g | 5/27g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 1/4g | 8/24g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 23/31g | 54% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 3/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 1/9g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/17g | 3/21g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Hugo Salabio | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Will Hutchinson | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jed Cartwright | INT | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/9g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| 16 | Jeremiah Matautia | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 11 in 11g | 11/10g (2·2·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·3) | 2/1g | 4/3g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 13 in 14g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/3g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 34% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Noah Hodkinson | WG | 12 in 11g | 11/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·4·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 5 in 6g | 9/10g (0·2·2·0·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 4/4g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 16% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 8 | Samuel Eseh | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Kaide Ellis | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Farrimond | INT | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Kian Mcdermott | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull FC 1387 · Wigan Warriors 1673 · ELO difference: 286 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 14:26 UTC (latest tip update)