# Castleford Tigers v York Knights — Super League Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 14 – 20 York Knights

_York Knights roar back to lay siege to Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 56% / York Knights 44% · The OneBore Stadium · Sat, 27 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Semi Valemei (7' 1st), Jason Qareqare (26' Tipped ⚡), Semi Valemei (73' 1st) · York Knights: Cody Hunter (13'), Oliver Field (55'), David Nofoaluma (63'), Scott Galeano (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 56% | Lost |
| York Knights | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs York Knights Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 June 2026, 09:17 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:49 pm_

Castleford Tigers 14–20 York Knights in Super League Round 16 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Errors made the difference. York Knights edged Castleford Tigers 20-14, with 14 errors from the Knights not costing them the match. Castleford, meanwhile, were tidier, with just 10 errors but failed to capitalise on this advantage. The Knights wrestled the game back in the second half, overturning a 10-6 half-time deficit.

Semi Valemei got the ball rolling for Castleford at the seventh minute. But Cody Hunter quickly responded for York with a try and conversion combo, briefly putting York ahead 6-4. Castleford had the last word of the first half with Jason Qareqare crossing the line, and Tom Weaver’s boot solidifying a 10-6 lead at the break.

York Knights’ second half was a different story. Oliver Field's try in the 55th minute brought them level. David Nofoaluma's try, bolstered by Hunter’s conversion, set York four points ahead. By the 70th, Scott Galeano added another try, pushing York to a 10-point cushion. Castleford’s Valemei added his second try in the 73rd minute, but York had done enough to secure the win.

Castleford had entered this game with the better form, three wins from their last five, compared to York's five defeats. On paper, Castleford's forward pack was rated higher, 874 compared to York's 763. But York's backs, rated at 811, proved to be pivotal in their victory. Despite York’s struggle in recent matches, their ability to break the line three times to Castleford's two was telling.

The Knights' attack was comparatively sharper, with Cody Hunter converting two out of York’s three tries. Castleford were decent in defence but failed to make the most of their possession. Their strength was in the hooker position, boasting a rating of 1000 to York’s 661, yet this advantage was underutilised. They banked more run metres in recent outings, averaging 1520.4 metres to York's lower 1150, but could only manage 1,379 metres to York’s 1,491 in this match.

The model had tipped Castleford with a 56% probability to take the win, suggesting only a minor margin of 1.1. York's stout resistance saw the actual margin stretch to six. The game total edged just shy of the predicted 37-point total, finishing at 34. Ultimately, York's ability to cover their 16.5-point line and the predicted under 54.5 total proved correct.

In the end, Castleford's failure to capitalise on York's mistakes sealed their fate. Missteps were plenty on both sides, but York did enough to steer the game their way. York Knights' disciplined second half overturned expectations, silencing Castleford at The OneBore Stadium.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 1,379 | Run metres | **1,491** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **3** |
| 25 | Tackle busts | **29** |
| 9 | Offloads | **10** |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 1/3 | Goals | 2/4 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 10 | Errors | 14 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

York Knights defied the model's 56% prediction for Castleford Tigers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.1 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. Total score prediction of 37 was close to the actual 34, within 3 points. York Knights trailed 10–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–20. The model went 4/17 on this match. York Knights covered the 16.5-point line. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (29/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 5 · York Knights 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Castleford Tigers to win — model probability 56.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +16.5 — model probability 56.1% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Castleford Tigers 1-12 — model probability 56.1% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Castleford Tigers by 1 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Castleford Tigers are the call at 56%, but York Knights stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Castleford Tigers sit 115 ELO points clear, 1404 to 1289. Form leans Castleford Tigers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for York Knights.

Castleford Tigers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Castleford Tigers by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 37. Lean Castleford Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 26.4pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 40.0pts |
| 5.6pts | Avg Margin | -22.8pts |
| 1520.4m | Run Metres | 1150.0m |
| 5.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 312.0 | Tackles | 284.0 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R14 L · R15 W | 26.4 |
| York Knights | R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Castleford Tigers lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | York Knights | 18 – 24 | Castleford Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.93 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 14th there (2.87 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- York Knights' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (1.93 conceded/game). Key man: Galeano, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.93/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 10th) | 0.53/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.93/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 6th) | 1.93/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2.87/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.4/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.93/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 10 | 8 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 83m/g | 110m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 42 | 22 · 43 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 393m/g | 438m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.1/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.9% | 87% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | York Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 16 | 9 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 277m/g | 303m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95% | 92% |

**Who scores on York Knights** — Fullbacks 0.67/g (lg 0.25) +168% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.06) +117% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.1) +100%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.06) +133% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Fullbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.25) +52%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Semi Valemei | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 33% | — | 🏉 7' 73' |
| 3 | Louis Senior | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (0·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 2/8g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jason Qareqare | WG | 12 in 15g | 11/10g (3·0·0·0·0·1·3·1·1·2) | 1/1g | 9/8g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 6 | Thomas Weaver | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Ashton Golding | HK | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Lane | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Scott Galeano | CE | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 5 | David Nofoaluma | WG | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·3·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Paul McShane | 5/8 | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Va'a | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Wood | 2R | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 55' |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Paul Vaughan | INT | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.00 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Kieran Hudson | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvey Reynolds | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1404 · York Knights 1289 · ELO difference: 115 in favour of Castleford Tigers

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | York Knights |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Castleford Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:49 UTC (latest tip update)