# Bradford Bulls v St Helens — Super League Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bradford Bulls 10 – 40 St Helens

_St Helens put Bradford Bulls to the sword._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bradford Bulls 37% / St Helens 63% · Bartercard Odsal Stadium · Sun, 28 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bradford Bulls: Phoenix Steinwede (20' 1st) · St Helens: Jacob Douglas (27' Tipped ⚡), Curtis Sironen (33'), Jack Welsby (43' Tipped ⚡), Joe Shorrocks (56'), Jackson Hastings (62'), Jack Welsby (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 63% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bradford Bulls vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 June 2026, 07:50 am · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 08:49 pm_

Bradford Bulls 10–40 St Helens in Super League Round 16 at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had St Helens winning by 7 on a total of 46. What actually happened was St Helens by 30 on a total of 50. That's about as clean a case as you'll find of a correct pick with the wrong picture of how it would go.

Bradford Bulls actually led for a good stretch of this one. Chris Atkin and Luke Hooley traded penalty goals with Jackson Hastings early, and when Phoenix Steinwede crossed in the 20th minute, converted by Hooley, the home side were up 10-2. At that point the ratings gap, Bradford 1366 to St Helens 1566, looked like it might not matter much on the day.

Then St Helens started scoring the way a side with a 1000-rated hooker and a 781-rated backline is supposed to. Jacob Douglas got one back in the 27th, Curtis Sironen levelled it in the 33rd, and Hastings' conversion had St Helens ahead 12-10 at the break. Bradford's 10 points inside 22 minutes turned out to be their entire scoring for the match, because St Helens didn't concede another point the rest of the way.

The second half was one-way traffic. Jack Welsby went over in the 43rd, Hastings kicked the goals and the penalties, Joe Shorrocks and then Hastings himself crossed, and Welsby's second try in the 77th made it 40-10. Five St Helens tries in that stretch, none from Bradford. That's the bit the pre-match margin call never saw coming.

The stat sheet explains why the gap kept widening rather than closing. St Helens ran for 1,618 metres to Bradford's 933, nearly double, and turned that into 5 line breaks against Bradford's 2. Offloads went 10 to 6 St Helens' way too, which is exactly what you'd expect from a side rated higher across the backs and miles clear at hooker. Bradford actually looked after the ball better, 9 errors to St Helens' 10, and matched them on tackle busts at 32 apiece. None of it mattered much when the metres and the line breaks were that lopsided.

**Key Match Stats**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 933 | Run metres | **1,618** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 32 | Tackle busts | 32 |
| 6 | Offloads | **10** |
| **9** | Errors | 10 |
| 11 | Penalties conceded | **6** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 8/9 |
| 11 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 9 | Errors | 10 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.0 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 50, within 4 points. St Helens led 10–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Bradford Bulls 11 · St Helens 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 63.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bradford Bulls +10.5 — model probability 63.3% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — model probability 63.3% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 63%, but Bradford Bulls stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 200 ELO points clear, 1566 to 1366.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bradford Bulls | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.8pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | 0.0pts |
| 1263.6m | Run Metres | 1171.2m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.8 |
| 311.0 | Tackles | 329.6 |
| 13.6 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford Bulls | R11 W · R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L | 18.8 |
| St Helens | R11 W · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 W | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — St Helens lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | St Helens | 26 – 22 | Bradford Bulls |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 7th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Nikorima, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the left edge: Super League's 10th-ranked left edge attack (0.93 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 13th there (1.53 conceded/game). Key man: Murphy, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bradford Bulls | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.07/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.93/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.53/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.4/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.33/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.87/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.8/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.73/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) | 1.27/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bradford Bulls | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 9 | 7 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 153m/g | 194m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.4% | 90.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bradford Bulls | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 40 | 28 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 513m/g | 475m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.9/g | 15.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 83.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bradford Bulls | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 14 | 14 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 292m/g | 312m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0% · Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.2) -10% · Wingers 0.79/g (lg 0.99) -20%
**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.27/g (lg 0.06) +350% · Five-Eighths 0.4/g (lg 0.2) +100% · 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.28) +68%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Bartercard Odsal Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/5g | 1/7g | 26% | — | — |
| 3 | Guy Armitage | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 37% | 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 8 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 4/8g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jayden Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/3g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Eribe Doro | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Phoenix Steinwede | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/14g | 1/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Hooley | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 21% | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' 77' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Bosam Macdonald | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jackson Hastings | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 7 | Tristan Sailor | HB | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Joe Shorrocks | HK | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | David Klemmer | LK | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Host | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 15 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Davies | INT | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bradford Bulls 1366 · St Helens 1566 · ELO difference: 200 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — St Helens predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 10:49 UTC (latest tip update)