# York Knights v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: York Knights 20 – 72 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors march past York Knights._

Half time: 0 – 44 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: York Knights 34% / Wigan Warriors 66% · LNER Community Stadium · Sun, 21 June, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — York Knights: Cody Hunter (71'), Scott Galeano (74' Tipped ⚡), Liam Harris (78'), Cody Hunter (79') · Wigan Warriors: Sam Eseh (0' 1st), Jake Wardle (6' Tipped ⚡), Noah Hodkinson (10' Tipped ⚡), Adam Keighran (14'), Noah Hodkinson (23' Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (30' Tipped ⚡), Junior Nsemba (34'), Jai Field (38' Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (43' Tipped ⚡), Noah Hodkinson (45' Tipped ⚡), Bevan French (49' Tipped ⚡), Jake Wardle (52' Tipped ⚡), Jack Farrimond (54' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 66% | Won |
| York Knights | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.2 predicted → 52 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**York Knights vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 June 2026, 07:32 am · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

York Knights 20–72 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 15 at LNER Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model liked Wigan Warriors, backed them at 66 percent, and pencilled in a win by 11.2 points. It got the winner right and undersold everything else. Wigan Warriors won 72-20, a margin 40 points bigger than forecast, and the combined total of 92 blew past the predicted 51 by more than forty points too. Directionally sound, scale wildly off. That's the honest version.

The read on the halves told you where this was headed. Wigan Warriors came in rated 849 to York Knights' 668 in that department, and it showed early. Sam Eseh opened the scoring inside the first minute, and by the 14th Adam Keighran had gone over himself and was already banging over conversions from everywhere. Noah Hodkinson had his first by the 10th minute and would finish with three. York Knights hadn't touched the ball meaningfully before they were down 0-20.

By half-time it was 0-44. Not a slow bleed, a flood. Jai Field crossed three times through the middle stanza of that first half, Junior Nsemba got one, and Wigan Warriors were scoring roughly every four minutes at one stretch. York Knights' form coming in was five straight losses and an average concession of 33.6 points. They'd shipped that much before half-time was even done.

The forward pack numbers explain plenty. Wigan Warriors were rated 813 to York Knights' 729 up front, and they backed it up with 1,678 run metres to York Knights' 1,111. That's the platform for everything else Wigan Warriors did with the ball. Their hooker rating was the one spot York Knights had an edge, 1,000 to 600, but a strong number nine doesn't mean much when the go-forward isn't there to work with.

Wigan Warriors kept adding to it after the break. Bevan French went over in the 49th, Jake Wardle got his second in the 52nd, and Jack Farrimond crossed in the 54th to push it to 0-72. At that point the game had nothing left to decide.

York Knights finally got on the board in the 71st minute through Cody Hunter, and to their credit they didn't fold completely once the scoreboard pressure was off. Scott Galeano and Liam Harris both crossed, Hunter added a second, and York Knights closed the arithmetic gap to 20-72 without ever threatening the actual result. Four tries in nine minutes late is something, even in a blowout.

Look at the shape of the stat sheet and it's less one-sided than the scoreline suggests. York Knights actually won the tackle bust count, 40 to 34, and the offload count, 12 to 11. They just couldn't turn either into points until the game was already decided, and their 9 errors to Wigan Warriors' 7 kept handing back whatever ball they did have.

So the model's instinct was right: Wigan Warriors were the better side across forwards, halves and recent form, four wins from five against York Knights' five losses. It just badly underestimated how far that gap would stretch on the day. Seven from sixteen on the card overall, and this one's filed under directionally correct, numerically nowhere close.

**Key Match Stats**

| York Knights | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,111 | Run metres | **1,678** |
| 7 | Line breaks | **8** |
| **40** | Tackle busts | 34 |
| **12** | Offloads | 11 |
| 9 | Errors | **7** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| York Knights | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 13 |
| 2/4 | Goals | 10/13 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 9 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.2 but the actual margin was 52 points. The game's 92 points came in 41 points higher than the predicted 51. Wigan Warriors led 0–44 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 52. The model went 7/16 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties York Knights 5 · Wigan Warriors 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 65.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** York Knights +30.5 — model probability 65.8% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 65.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 66% to see off York Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 354 ELO points clear, 1658 to 1304. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for York Knights.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 11.2, with the two sides combining for about 51. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| York Knights | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 16.4pts | Avg Score | 30.8pts |
| 33.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -17.2pts | Avg Margin | 9.6pts |
| 1169.0m | Run Metres | 1057.3m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 5.3 |
| 311.0 | Tackles | 310.5 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 7.3 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| York Knights | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L | 16.4 |
| Wigan Warriors | R10 W · R11 W · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W | 30.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Wigan Warriors lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Wigan Warriors | 23 – 22 | York Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- York Knights' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 7th there (1.79 conceded/game). Key man: Nofoaluma, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a York Knights defence ranked 9th there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Hodkinson, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | York Knights | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.57/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 9th) | 1.29/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 2.64/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.86/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.79/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 7th) | 1.79/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | York Knights | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 12 | 11 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 110m/g | 89m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 80% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | York Knights | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 34 | 47 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 436m/g | 510m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 13.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 81.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | York Knights | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 11 | 7 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 305m/g | 413m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.28) -11% · Halfbacks 0.14/g (lg 0.19) -26%
**Who scores on York Knights** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.06) +133% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.1) +110% · Fullbacks 0.5/g (lg 0.25) +100%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at LNER Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**York Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toa Mata'afa | FB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Scott Galeano | WG | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 4/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Nikau Williams | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 29% | — | — |
| 5 | David Nofoaluma | WG | 8 in 11g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 1/2g | 1/6g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nofoaluma | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Liam Harris | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 39% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 7 | Cody Hunter | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | 🏉 71' 79' |
| 8 | Jack Martin | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Thomas Inman | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/6g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.50 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Harvey Reynolds | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Oli Field | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jordan Thompson | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Va'a | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jon Bennison | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Hingano | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·2·2·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 38' 43' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 13 in 13g | 9/10g (2·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 34% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 52' |
| 5 | Noah Hodkinson | WG | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0·4) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.50 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 23' 45' |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Samuel Eseh | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 0' |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Bevan French | INT | 4 in 5g | 8/10g (0·0·2·2·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 15 | Kaide Ellis | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Kian Mcdermott | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — York Knights 1304 · Wigan Warriors 1658 · ELO difference: 354 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | York Knights |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)