# Warrington Wolves v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 6 – 34 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos run riot over Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 2 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 29% / Leeds Rhinos 71% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Fri, 19 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Matty Ashton (72') · Leeds Rhinos: Maika Sivo (18' 1st Tipped 🎯), Brodie Croft (21' Tipped ⚡), Harry Newman (29'), Chris Hankinson (43'), Maika Sivo (54' 1st Tipped 🎯), Maika Sivo (57' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 71% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 June 2026, 10:17 am · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

Warrington Wolves 6–34 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 15 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warrington led 2-0 after nine minutes and then the game got away from them inside a quarter of an hour. Maika Sivo crossed in the 18th to get Leeds on the board, Brodie Croft followed three minutes later, and by the 29th minute Harry Newman had gone over too. Three tries in eleven minutes turned 2-2 into 2-16, and that was effectively the contest.

Warrington never found an answer. Halliwell Jones Stadium watched Leeds add to it after the break through Chris Hankinson, then Sivo again twice in the space of three minutes either side of the hour mark to complete his hat-trick. Matty Ashton's try in the 72nd was Warrington's only reply of the night. Final score: 34-6.

The half-time board, 2-16, told most of the story on its own. Leeds didn't need to press hard in the second half so much as keep doing what worked, and they did, stretching it out by another 18 points after the break.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already made obvious. Leeds ran for 1,417 metres to Warrington's 1,113, broke the line five times to three, and busted 40 tackles to 26. Ten offloads to seven gave them the extra go-forward to keep finding those breaks. None of that is marginal, it's a side that had more to work with every time they had the ball.

Sivo's night was the headline, three tries on top of the one that got Leeds moving in the 18th minute. Jake Connor did the rest of the tidying up with the boot, three conversions plus a penalty goal, and Warrington had no equivalent focal point. Ewan Irwin's early penalty goal was as good as it got for the home side individually.

Warrington actually held their own in one column, coughing the ball up 11 times to Leeds's 13, so it wasn't a case of gifting field position away all night. But discipline let them down at the other end, five penalties conceded to three, and against a side finding a break every few sets, that extra ball in Leeds hands mattered more than the raw error count suggested.

The form lines pointed at exactly this kind of gap without predicting the size of it. Leeds came in stronger across forwards, backs and particularly halves, 1193 to 724, and that halves gap is where a game like this gets decided, in the shape of the attack rather than raw metres alone.

Alphr's model had Leeds favourites at 71% and got the winner right. The margin read was nowhere near it though, tipped at 3.9 points against an actual 28, and the total of 34 undershot the real 40 by six. Leeds covering a 1.5-point line was never in doubt after that first-half burst. The under on 42.5 landed too. Six from seventeen on this one, and the margin miss is the one worth owning.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1,113 | Run metres | **1,417** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 26 | Tackle busts | **40** |
| 7 | Offloads | **10** |
| **11** | Errors | 13 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1/2 | Goals | 5/7 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 11 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 28 points. Total score prediction of 34 was close to the actual 40, within 6 points. Leeds Rhinos led 2–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 6/17 on this match. Leeds Rhinos covered the 1.5-point line. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 5 · Leeds Rhinos 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 71.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos +1.5 — model probability 71.0% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — model probability 71.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 4 · Predicted total: 34

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 71% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 76 ELO points clear, 1722 to 1646. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Leeds Rhinos.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 34. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Leeds Rhinos to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 33.6pts |
| 8.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Margin | 16.4pts |
| 1325.8m | Run Metres | 1304.5m |
| 6.3 | Clean Breaks | 6.3 |
| 329.5 | Tackles | 281.3 |
| 11.5 | Errors | 10.5 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W | 22.8 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W | 33.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Leeds Rhinos | 26 – 22 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R14 | Leeds Rhinos | 36 – 12 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2025 | R6 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2024 | — | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 34 | Warrington Wolves |
| 2024 | R22 | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 6 | Leeds Rhinos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3.15 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.57 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (1.15 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 22 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.92/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.31/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 3.15/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2.64/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 8th) | 2.57/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 7 | 18 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 167m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 91.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 23 | 39 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 398m/g | 339m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.9/g | 11.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 85.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 2 | 13 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 297m/g | 339m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94% | 94% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.19) -11% · Fullbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.25) -20%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.19) +37% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 0.88/g (lg 0.98) -10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Thewlis | FB | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 29/54g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.37 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.87 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Albert Hopoate | WG | 8 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 6/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.49 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.74 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Joshua Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Arron Lindop | CE | no games | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 3/4g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.17 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Matthew Ashton | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 72' |
| 6 | Leon Hayes | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Ewan Irwin | HB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 19% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Thomas | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/15g | 7% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 9/61g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Harrison | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 6/28g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/22g | 16/69g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Samuel Powell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Toafofoa Sipley | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·4·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 5/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Crowther | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/13g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 22 in 13g | 13/10g (0·3·0·1·1·3·1·1·1·2) | 3/1g | 0/0g | 83% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.23 AI 24% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 18' 54' 57' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 32% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 7 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 10/18g | 3/6g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.14 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 15 in 13g | 11/10g (1·1·0·4·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 4/9g | 0/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.88 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Levi | HK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 43' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.26 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 5 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/15g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Leeds Rhinos hold the ELO advantage (1722 vs 1646), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.91). The model sides with ELO, Leeds Rhinos predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1646 · Leeds Rhinos 1722 · ELO difference: 76 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 34 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r15-warrington-wolves-v-leeds-rhinos
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)