# St Helens v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 38 – 6 Huddersfield Giants

_St Helens march in over Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 77% / Huddersfield Giants 23% · The BrewDog Stadium · Mon, 22 June, 12:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Curtis Sironen (21' 1st), Curtis Sironen (24' 1st), Nene Macdonald (31'), Alex Walmsley (61'), Harry Robertson (69' Tipped ⚡), Jake Davies (73' Tipped ⚡), Jake Davies (77' Tipped ⚡) · Huddersfield Giants: Cole Geyer (55')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 77% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 19.0 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 June 2026, 08:10 am · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

St Helens 38–6 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 15 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had St Helens by 19. St Helens won by 32. Right club, wrong ceiling, and the 38-6 final at The BrewDog Stadium tells you the margin model needed a rethink well before full time.

The probability call was fine. St Helens at 77% to win was always going to land more often than not against a Huddersfield Giants side carrying five straight losses into this one. What the model didn't see coming was how one-sided the ball would be. Curtis Sironen crossed twice inside the first 24 minutes, the second try making it 10-0, and Nene Macdonald added another before half-time for a 16-0 lead at the break. Huddersfield hadn't got near the board.

That first half is where the positional ratings actually told the truth. St Helens held the edge in forwards, 815 to 702, and backs, 846 to 701, and it showed up everywhere except the one column where the model gave Huddersfield the nod. The Giants were rated stronger in the halves, 1000 to 665, but it made no visible difference. St Helens found 10 line breaks to Huddersfield's 1 and racked up 48 tackle busts to 28. That's not a halves battle being won, that's a forward pack and a backline doing more damage every time they touched the ball.

Cole Geyer got Huddersfield on the board at 55 minutes, George Flanagan's conversion making it 16-6. Four minutes later St Helens had put the game back out of reach. Alex Walmsley crossed at 61, Harry Robertson at 69, then Jake Davies twice in the space of four minutes late on to turn a comfortable win into a rout. Four tries in the closing stretch is how 16-6 becomes 38-6.

Run metres summed it up better than anything: 1,399 to 936. St Helens simply had more go forward all night, which lines up with form. St Helens were averaging 1,181 metres over their last five, Huddersfield 1,078.8, and that gap widened rather than closed under scoreboard pressure. Huddersfield actually shaded the error count, 13 to 14, so ball security doesn't explain the beating. Discipline does: 8 penalties conceded to St Helens' 3, a string of free repeat sets St Helens didn't need but happily took anyway.

Hu

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,399** | Run metres | 936 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **48** | Tackle busts | 28 |
| **9** | Offloads | 7 |
| 14 | Errors | **13** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 5/7 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 14 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 19.0 but the actual margin was 32 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 44, within 3 points. St Helens led 16–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 3/16 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties St Helens 3 · Huddersfield Giants 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 76.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Huddersfield Giants +20.5 — model probability 76.6% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 13-24 — model probability 76.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 19 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 77% to see off Huddersfield Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 304 ELO points clear, 1554 to 1249. Form leans St Helens' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Huddersfield Giants.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has St Helens by 19.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 10.0pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 36.8pts |
| -1.6pts | Avg Margin | -26.8pts |
| 1181.0m | Run Metres | 1078.8m |
| 4.5 | Clean Breaks | 2.0 |
| 338.0 | Tackles | 339.0 |
| 12.5 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R10 W · R11 W · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L | 19.6 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 L | 10.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Huddersfield Giants | 18 – 26 | St Helens |
| 2025 | R22 | St Helens | 52 – 4 | Huddersfield Giants |
| 2025 | R12 | Huddersfield Giants | 4 – 46 | St Helens |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 13 – 12 | Huddersfield Giants |
| 2024 | R24 | Huddersfield Giants | 10 – 18 | St Helens |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 13th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the right edge: Super League's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.93 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 6th there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Gagai, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.57/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.43/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.86/g (def 8th) | 1.36/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.64/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.29/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 6th) | 0.93/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 10 | 5 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 199m/g | 115m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 25 | 25 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 479m/g | 480m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.7/g | 14.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.4% | 81.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 5 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 305m/g | 299m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 93.2% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.19) +79% · Centres 0.74/g (lg 0.49) +51% · Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.2) +40%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9% · Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.2) -10% · Wingers 0.8/g (lg 0.99) -19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 35/64g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Owen Dagnall | WG | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 8/12g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 5/16g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/17g | 20/50g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Bosam Macdonald | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Tristan Sailor | 5/8 | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/3g | 15/19g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jackson Hastings | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/9g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/23g | 11/61g | 16% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/22g | 9/31g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 8/39g | 14% | — | 🏉 21' 24' |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/11g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Shorrocks | LK | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Humphreys | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/37g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Davies | INT | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 73' 77' |
| 17 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Flanagan | FB | 6 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Taane Milne | WG | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 3 | Jacob Gagai | CE | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 47% | 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Lewis Jagger | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $34.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lee Kershaw | WG | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Oliver Russell | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Tuimoala Lolohea | HB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Chris Patolo | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Asher O'Donnell | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 12 | Zane Dunford | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Tristan Powell | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Cole Geyer | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 15 | Matthew English | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Burgess | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1554 · Huddersfield Giants 1249 · ELO difference: 304 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | St Helens |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — St Helens predicted to win by 19 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)