# Hull KR v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 22 – 8 Leigh Leopards

_Hull KR fly past Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 10 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 83% / Leigh Leopards 17% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sat, 20 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Joe Burgess (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Peta Hiku (14' Tipped ⚡), Jai Whitbread (42'), Bill Leyland (50' Tipped ⚡) · Leigh Leopards: Jacob Alick-Wiencke (18'), Bailey Hodgson (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 83% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 17% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 June 2026, 10:17 am · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

Hull KR 22–8 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 15 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Three hundred and ten metres. That's the gap Hull KR ran up on Leigh Leopards in this one, 1,304 to 994, and it's about as tidy a summary as you'll find for a 22-8 win at Sewell Group Craven Park.

The start told most of the story. Joe Burgess opened the scoring in the 8th minute, Rhyse Martin added the conversion, and by the 14th Peta Hiku had crossed too to make it 10-0. Jacob Alick-Wiencke got one back for Leigh in the 18th, and that's how it sat at the break, Hull KR up 10-4. Not exactly comfortable, but the platform was there.

It got a lot more comfortable after halftime. Jai Whitbread scored in the 42nd, Bill Leyland followed in the 50th, Martin slotted the extras, and suddenly it was 20-4 with half an hour still to play. Leigh's Bailey Hodgson pulled one back in the 70th, but a Martin penalty goal in the 76th closed it out at 22-8. Leigh Leopards never got closer than 12 points after the break.

The forward pack numbers explain why Hull KR could keep finding metres when it mattered. They went in rated 1020 to 805 up front, and it showed everywhere that counts: 6 line breaks to 4, 41 tackle busts to 38, 16 offloads to 13. None of those are blowout margins on their own, but stack them together over 80 minutes and you get a team that kept finding go-forward while the other lot were stuck defending it.

Leigh actually held the cleaner sheet, just 10 errors to Hull KR's 14, and were the more disciplined ball-handlers of the two. Where they let themselves down was penalties, conceding 6 to Hull KR's 3, which is a lot of extra sets to hand over against a side building a lead. Their halves were rated well clear of Hull KR's, 1269 to 866, but that class in the pivots didn't translate into enough field position or points when the forward battle was lost this badly.

Form lines had both sides at 4 wins from their last five, so this wasn't a case of one team fading and the other rolling. But the averages hinted at where this was headed: Hull KR coming in scoring 38.8 a game and conceding just 11.6, Leigh at 30.6 and 14. Add a scoring margin of plus-27.2 for Hull KR against plus-16.6 for Leigh, and the gap in this result isn't exactly a shock.

Alphr's model had Hull KR favourites at 83 percent and picked the margin at 5 points off ratings of 1730 to 1600. The result landed at 14, so the win was called correctly but the gap ran further than expected. Some days the numbers undersell how one-sided it'll get. This was one of them.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| **1,304** | Run metres | 994 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **41** | Tackle busts | 38 |
| **16** | Offloads | 13 |
| 14 | Errors | **10** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 3/5 | Goals | 0/2 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 14 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 83% probability. The predicted margin of 5.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Hull KR led 10–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 5/16 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Hull KR 3 · Leigh Leopards 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 82.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards +10.5 — model probability 82.8% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 82.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 5 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 83% to see off Leigh Leopards. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 131 ELO points clear, 1730 to 1600.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Hull KR by 5.0, with the two sides combining for about 38. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Hull KR to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 38.8pts | Avg Score | 30.6pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Margin | 16.6pts |
| 1370.8m | Run Metres | 1382.0m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 7.8 |
| 285.5 | Tackles | 291.0 |
| 7.3 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R14 W | 38.8 |
| Leigh Leopards | R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 W · R14 W | 30.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 20 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R18 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 10 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R5 | Hull KR | 30 – 0 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 12 – 0 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2024 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 0 – 24 | Hull KR |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.31 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 10th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.93 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 8th there (1.15 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.46/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 3.31/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 10th) · concedes 2/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1.15/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 8th) | 0.93/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.71/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 3 | 5 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 205m/g | 119m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 17 | 33 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 639m/g | 493m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.2/g | 12.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 86.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 10 | 8 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 314m/g | 403m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 93.2% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.06) +33% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.19) -5% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.28) -11% · Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.49) -31% · Wingers 0.59/g (lg 0.98) -40%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/7g | 13/26g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·1·1·0·2) | 5/11g | 14/22g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.68 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.98 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 12/31g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.65 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| 4 | Rhyse Martin | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/7g | 5/13g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.67 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 12 in 11g | 12/10g (1·1·1·3·2·2·1·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 27/25g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.10 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 8/30g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 15 in 13g | 13/10g (0·3·0·0·4·1·0·3·1·1) | 9/10g | 35/51g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.22 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/35g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Karl Lawton | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Amone | PR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 3/48g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 14/39g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/54g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/9g | 2/43g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 6/33g | 26% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 16 | Bill Leyland | INT | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.85 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| 17 | Tevita Jnr | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 39% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Innes Senior | WG | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/12g | 0/4g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Bailey Hodgson | WG | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 23% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 6 | Adam Cook | 5/8 | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/16g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Alick-Wiencke | 2R | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matty Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Horne | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1730 · Leigh Leopards 1600 · ELO difference: 131 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 83%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)