# Hull FC v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 10 – 36 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity run riot over Hull FC._

Half time: 0 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 19% / Wakefield Trinity 81% · MKM Stadium · Sat, 20 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Tom Briscoe (46'), Davy Litten (58' Tipped ⚡) · Wakefield Trinity: Tom Johnstone (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tom Johnstone (14' 1st Tipped 🎯), Seth Nikotemo (31'), Mike McMeeken (35'), Jazz Tevaga (73' Tipped ⚡), Seth Nikotemo (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 81% | Won |
| Hull FC | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 June 2026, 10:17 am · Last updated: 15 Oct 2026, 01:25 am_

Hull FC 10–36 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 15 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wakefield Trinity overran Hull FC 36–10 at MKM Stadium. Wakefield Trinity led 24–0 at half-time and held on.

Tom Johnstone opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Tom Briscoe and Davy Litten; Wakefield Trinity scored through Tom Johnstone (2), Seth Nikotemo (2), Mike McMeeken and Jazz Tevaga.

Wakefield Trinity were the cleaner side with the ball, coughing it up just 8 times to 14. Wakefield Trinity were sharper in attack, breaking the line 8 times to 2 and busting 33 tackles. Wakefield Trinity held the discipline edge, conceding 4 penalties to 5.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull FC | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 949 | Run metres | **1,412** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 24 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| 5 | Offloads | **14** |
| 14 | Errors | **8** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull FC | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 6 |
| 1/2 | Goals | 6/6 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 14 | Errors | 8 |
| 2 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 81% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 26 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. Wakefield Trinity covered the 1.5-point line.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (9/100) — penalties Hull FC 5 · Wakefield Trinity 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 81.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity -1.5 — model probability 81.2% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — model probability 81.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 3 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 81% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 170 ELO points clear, 1581 to 1410. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 38. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Wakefield Trinity to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull FC | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 12.8pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 18.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| -6.0pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 1098.5m | Run Metres | 1179.8m |
| 2.3 | Clean Breaks | 6.3 |
| 333.3 | Tackles | 292.8 |
| 13.5 | Errors | 8.5 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull FC | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 L · R14 W | 12.8 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W · R14 L | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull FC lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Wakefield Trinity | 14 – 10 | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity 72% ✓ |
| 2025 | R18 | Hull FC | 16 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R5 | Wakefield Trinity | 12 – 16 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2023 | R21 | Hull FC | 42 – 4 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R12 | Wakefield Trinity | 6 – 26 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull FC's best path is the left edge: Super League's 7th-ranked left edge attack (0.93 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 7th there (0.93 conceded/game). Key man: Litten, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Hull FC defence ranked 11th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.93/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1.43/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.14/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.57/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.79/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.71/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 96m/g | 131m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.2/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 90.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 31 | 40 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 513m/g | 434m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 84.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 5 | 7 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 294m/g | 335m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.06) +67% · Fullbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.25) +52% · Centres 0.6/g (lg 0.49) +22%
**Who scores on Hull FC** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.11) +36% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.25) +36% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.2) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull FC** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 21% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 17/26g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.31 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.47 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Ethan O'Neill | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 21% | — | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/23g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.17 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.48 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| 5 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/18g | 4/26g | 28% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 6 | Jakob Arthur | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/17g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Jeremiah Matautia | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 3/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Harvie Hill | PR | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/8g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.64 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | William Kirby | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Herman Ese'ese | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/23g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Will Hutchinson | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Max Wood | INT | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Joshua Rourke | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 6/18g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Jay Pitts | CE | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 7 in 6g | 10/10g (1·0·2·0·0·2·0·4·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.36 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.72 AI 20% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 14' |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 31' 79' |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Jazz Tevaga | LK | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.48 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 73' |
| 14 | Kian McGann | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Caius Faatili | INT | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·3·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.82 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.96 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull FC 1410 · Wakefield Trinity 1581 · ELO difference: 170 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull FC |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull FC |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-14 14:25 UTC (latest tip update)