# Catalans Dragons v Bradford Bulls — Super League Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 34 – 24 Bradford Bulls

_Catalans Dragons torch Bradford Bulls._

Half time: 22 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 54% / Bradford Bulls 46% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sun, 21 June, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Zac Lipowicz (5' 1st), Josh Allen (13'), Julian Bousquet (25'), Solomona Faataape (35'), Kruise Leeming (46'), Charlie Staines (74' Tipped ⚡) · Bradford Bulls: Ryan Sutton (9'), Ethan Ryan (17' Tipped ⚡), Connor Wynne (43'), Caleb Aekins (68'), Connor Wynne (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 54% | Won |
| Bradford Bulls | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Bradford Bulls Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 June 2026, 07:32 am · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

Catalans Dragons 34–24 Bradford Bulls in Super League Round 15 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons led 22-10 at the break and Bradford Bulls spent the second half trying to find twelve points from somewhere. They found ten, in the end, but it wasn't enough. Full time: Catalans Dragons 34, Bradford Bulls 24, and the gap that mattered most had already opened up before half-time drinks.

The first half was actually tight for stretches. Zac Lipowicz opened the scoring inside five minutes, Ryan Sutton hit back for Bradford within four, and by the 17th minute, after an Ethan Ryan try, it was 12-10 and anyone's game. Then Catalans put together the kind of thirteen-minute stretch that decides matches: Julian Bousquet in the 25th, Solomona Faataape in the 35th, and suddenly it's 22-10 at the break and Bradford are chasing a lot more than a converted try.

The second half didn't flip anything. Connor Wynne got one back for Bradford at the 43rd minute, Catalans answered through Kruise Leeming three minutes later to push it to 28-14, and from there Bradford were always playing catch-up rugby. Caleb Aekins and a second Connor Wynne try either side of Charlie Staines' score in the 74th minute made the final margin look closer than the game ever really was. Ten points, same as the gap at the break.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard did. Catalans ran for 1,127 metres to Bradford's 980, and the difference showed up most in what they did with the ball in hand: 35 tackle busts to 25, 11 offloads to 6. That's not a side grinding out territory, that's a side breaking tackles and finding support. Bradford actually edged the line-break count, 6 to 5, and had their moments of quality, but line breaks that don't turn into points are just numbers on a sheet.

Handling told a story too. Catalans coughed the ball up 10 times, Bradford 13, and when you're down a man's worth of forward-pack rating, as Bradford effectively were, 828 to 778 on paper but overwhelmed on output, those extra errors cost you the ball at the moments you can least afford it. Catalans' backs, rated 917 to Bradford's 658 coming in, did the damage that rating suggested they might: six try scorers spread across the side, with Lipowicz, Allen, Bousquet, Faataape, Leeming and Staines all crossing.

Bradford's four tries, through Sutton, Ryan, Wynne twice and Aekins, show they never stopped playing. Their recent form had them at 16.8 points a game on average; they nearly doubled that here. It just came against a Catalans outfit averaging 22.8 and putting up 34.

Alphr's model had Catalans favourites at 54% and picked them by 3.9 points. The actual margin was ten, close enough to call the winner right and not far off the shape of it, though the model undercooked the total badly, tipping 38 combined points against a final 58. Bradford, for what it's worth, covered the 12.5-point line. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| **1,127** | Run metres | 980 |
| 5 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **35** | Tackle busts | 25 |
| **11** | Offloads | 6 |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 5 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 2/5 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 58 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 38. The model went 5/16 on this match. Bradford Bulls covered the 12.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 5 · Bradford Bulls 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 54.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bradford Bulls +12.5 — model probability 54.3% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — model probability 54.3% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 4 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Catalans Dragons are the call at 54%, but Bradford Bulls stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 46 ELO points clear, 1436 to 1391.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 38. Lean Catalans Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 16.8pts |
| 36.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| -13.4pts | Avg Margin | -10.4pts |
| 1033.8m | Run Metres | 1251.8m |
| 4.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 312.5 | Tackles | 304.0 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R10 L · R11 L · R12 W · R13 L · R14 W | 22.8 |
| Bradford Bulls | R10 L · R11 W · R12 L · R13 W · R14 L | 16.8 |

### H2H History (Last 1) — Bradford Bulls lead 1-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Bradford Bulls | 28 – 10 | Catalans Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Bradford Bulls defence ranked 14th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Faataape, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Bradford Bulls' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.07 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 9th there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Ryan, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.14/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 9th) | 1.07/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.64/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.64/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.36/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.21/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.21/g (def 9th) | 0.64/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 8 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 110m/g | 159m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 92.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 33 | 24 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 509m/g | 517m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 13.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.3% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Bradford Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 11 | 7 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 243m/g | 293m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 94.4% |

**Who scores on Bradford Bulls** — Locks 0.21/g (lg 0.06) +250% · Five-Eighths 0.43/g (lg 0.2) +115% · Centres 0.79/g (lg 0.49) +61%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.19) +32% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlie Staines | FB | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·2·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 13/19g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | CE | 1 in 9g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/14g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Solomona Faataape | CE | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/1g | 4/7g | 42% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 6 | Lewis Dodd | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 58% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/7g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 59% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Josh Allen | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 8% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 10 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/43g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Franck Maria | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 7% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Lipowicz | 2R | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 25% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 13 | Julian Bousquet | LK | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/56g | 8% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 14 | Chris Satae | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/32g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Benjamin Condon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Wilson | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Matthieu Laguerre | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/24g | 10% | — | — |

**Bradford Bulls** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Aekins | FB | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 2 | Connor Wynne | WG | 5 in 12g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 43' 78' |
| 3 | Guy Armitage | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 27% | — | — |
| 4 | Waqa Blake | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 73% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ethan Ryan | WG | 7 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| 6 | Jayden Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 1/8g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Christopher Atkin | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ryan Sutton | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Eribe Doro | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 12 | Phoenix Steinwede | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Mellor | LK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Riley Dean | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | William Gardiner | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Ebon Scurr | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Eliot Peposhi | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1436 · Bradford Bulls 1391 · ELO difference: 46 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Bradford Bulls |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Bradford Bulls |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)