# Castleford Tigers v Toulouse Olympique — Super League Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 36 – 18 Toulouse Olympique

_Castleford Tigers maul Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 57% / Toulouse Olympique 43% · The OneBore Stadium · Sun, 21 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Tom Weaver (13' 1st), Phoenix Laulu-Togaga'e (26'), Jason Qareqare (30' Tipped ⚡), Zac Cini (37'), Daejarn Asi (47'), Jason Qareqare (60' Tipped ⚡) · Toulouse Olympique: Benjamin Laguerre (65' Tipped ⚡), Maxime Stefani (71'), Cesar Rouge (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 57% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.1 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Toulouse Olympique Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 15 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 June 2026, 07:32 am · Last updated: 17 Sept 2026, 09:48 am_

Castleford Tigers 36–18 Toulouse Olympique in Super League Round 15 at The OneBore Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Castleford Tigers led 24-0 at half-time and never had to look over their shoulder. Toulouse Olympique spent the night chasing a scoreboard that had already run away from them, and by the time they finally got on the board in the 65th minute, the game had been decided for the best part of an hour. Final score: Castleford Tigers 36, Toulouse Olympique 18.

The Tigers built that gap in a hurry. Tom Weaver opened the scoring in the 13th minute and converted his own try two minutes later. Castleford piled on three more tries before the break: Phoenix Laulu-Togaga'e in the 26th, Jason Qareqare in the 30th, Zac Cini in the 37th. Weaver landed every conversion on offer. By half-time it was 24-0 and Toulouse hadn't so much as troubled the scoreboard.

Castleford kept their foot down after the break. A Weaver penalty goal in the 43rd minute made it 26-0, Daejarn Asi crossed in the 47th to push it out to 32, and Qareqare's second try in the 60th minute took it to 36-0. At that point the contest was over in everything but the scoreline.

Toulouse's response, when it arrived, was genuine but far too late. Benjamin Laguerre scored in the 65th minute, Maxime Stefani in the 71st, and Cesar Rouge in the 79th, with Jake Shorrocks converting all three. Eighteen unanswered points in the last quarter isn't nothing, but starting from 36-0, it only ever closed the margin. It never threatened the result.

The stat sheet lines up with what the clock showed. Castleford ran for 1,622 metres to Toulouse's 1,182, cracked the line six times to four, and racked up 22 tackle busts to 16. That's the kind of go-forward you'd expect given Castleford came in with the stronger forward pack rating, 874 to 792, and it showed up exactly where it should have. Discipline mattered too. Castleford conceded just 4 penalties to Toulouse's 8, and that sort of field position edge tends to turn into points over 80 minutes.

Toulouse were actually the tidier side with the ball, coughing it up just 6 times to Castleford's 8, and they carried the stronger ratings in the halves (927 to 600) and at hooker (1198 to 877) coming into the match. None of that showed up until the game was already gone. Whatever Toulouse's spine was supposed to bring, it turned up about 50 minutes too late to matter.

Alphr's model called Castleford to win at 57 percent, so the pick was right. The margin was another matter entirely. The model had Toulouse favoured by 2.1 points on a combined total of 44. Instead Castleford won by 18 in a match that produced 54 points between the two sides. Getting the winner right while missing the shape of the game that badly sums up the night for the model, which finished 3 from 16 on this one, correct on the result, well off on everything else.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| **1,622** | Run metres | 1,182 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **22** | Tackle busts | 16 |
| **5** | Offloads | 4 |
| 8 | Errors | **6** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 6/7 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 8 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Castleford Tigers to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.1 but the actual margin was 18 points. The model went 3/16 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (29/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 4 · Toulouse Olympique 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Castleford Tigers to win — model probability 56.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Toulouse Olympique +12.5 — model probability 56.8% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Castleford Tigers 1-12 — model probability 56.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Toulouse Olympique by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Castleford Tigers are the call at 57%, but Toulouse Olympique stay live at 43%.

On paper Toulouse Olympique shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The model still sides with Castleford Tigers, which says Forward Pack and H2H History carry the most weight. The margin model has Toulouse Olympique by 2.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Castleford Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| -6.8pts | Avg Margin | -1.6pts |
| 1347.3m | Run Metres | 1206.8m |
| 4.3 | Clean Breaks | 4.5 |
| 324.3 | Tackles | 331.0 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 11.5 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R14 L | 20.4 |
| Toulouse Olympique | R10 W · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Castleford Tigers lead 2-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Toulouse Olympique | 24 – 12 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2022 | R15 | Toulouse Olympique | 14 – 20 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2022 | R7 | Castleford Tigers | 32 – 6 | Toulouse Olympique |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.86 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 11th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Mapapalangi, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.07 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 14th there (2.07 conceded/game). Key man: Jussaume, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 10th) | 0.93/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.79/g (def 7th) | 1.14/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.36/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.07/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.07/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 10 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 81m/g | 129m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 91% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 40 | 27 · 39 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 387m/g | 555m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.4/g | 19.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 83.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Toulouse Olympique |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 15 | 14 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 274m/g | 284m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.6/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.7% | 93.5% |

**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.06) +133% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.49) +104% · Wingers 1.64/g (lg 0.99) +66%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.06) +150% · Wingers 1.5/g (lg 0.99) +52% · Fullbacks 0.37/g (lg 0.25) +48%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The OneBore Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix Laulu-togagae | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Louis Senior | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 4 | Krystian Mapapalangi | CE | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 2/7g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jason Qareqare | WG | 10 in 14g | 9/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·1·3·1·1) | 1/1g | 7/7g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 60' |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 10% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 7 | Thomas Weaver | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 13' |
| 8 | George Lawler | PR | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/9g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Ashton Golding | HK | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.40 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Alexander Mellor | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | George Hirst | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Stimson | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Lane | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Rouge | FB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 6 | Jake Shorrocks | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Tiaki Chan | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Maxime Stefani | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·0·3·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 35% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Lambert Belmas | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Toulouse Olympique hold the ELO advantage (1372 vs 1371), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.20). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1371 · Toulouse Olympique 1372 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Toulouse Olympique

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Toulouse Olympique |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Castleford Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-16 23:48 UTC (latest tip update)