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Super League | Round 14

alphr.com.au

WAK
Wakefield Trinity
VS
WIG
Wigan Warriors
VENUE: THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • SATURDAY 13 JUNE, 5:00 AM AEST

AI Win Probability

50%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

50%

Wigan Warriors

50%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wakefield Trinity a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Wigan Warriors are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control, but Wakefield Trinity counter with Backline Quality and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wakefield Trinity.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R9L
R10L
R11W
R12W
R13W

older → newer

17.8
Wigan Warriors
R9L
R10W
R11W
R12L
R13W
20.8

Avg Conceded

23.5

Wakefield Trinity

21.0

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

5.1

Wakefield Trinity

-5.4

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1277

Wakefield Trinity

1567

Wigan Warriors

Line Breaks

6.2

Wakefield Trinity

7.1

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Aug 2025WAK 2 - 44 WIG
Jun 2025WAK 16 - 10 WIG
Jul 2023WAK 27 - 26 WIG
May 2023WAK 6 - 22 WIG
Mar 2023WAK 0 - 60 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1476Overall1485
WIG
ELO difference: -9 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

995Forwards1045
WIG +50
1020Backs1009
WAK +12
985Halves990
Even
997Hooker1002
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
WIG
1.2
Wins (Last 5)
3.8
17.8pts
Avg Score
20.8pts
23.5pts
Avg Conceded
21.0pts
5.1pts
Avg Margin
-5.4pts
1277.2m
Run Metres
1567.0m
6.2
Line Breaks
7.1

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Trinity
4
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
Trinity
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

50%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: 0.0