# Wakefield Trinity v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 10 – 48 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors run riot over Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 6 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 62% / Wigan Warriors 38% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sat, 13 June, 05:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Matty Storton (10'), Tom Johnstone (64') · Wigan Warriors: Liam Farrell (4' 1st), Noah Hodkinson (27'), Oliver Partington (30'), Noah Hodkinson (34'), Noah Hodkinson (47'), Jake Wardle (52'), Noah Hodkinson (56'), Zach Eckersley (59'), Liam Farrell (76' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 62% | Lost |
| Wigan Warriors | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.0 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Wigan Warriors Prediction and Tips - Super League Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 June 2026, 01:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 10–48 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 14 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six points was the margin at the break, and it flattered Wakefield Trinity. Wigan Warriors led 20-6 at half-time at The DIY Kitchens Stadium, and instead of the home side clawing back into it, the second half turned into a rout. Final score: Wakefield Trinity 10, Wigan Warriors 48.

The story of that first half was Wakefield actually holding their own for a spell. Liam Farrell opened the scoring inside four minutes, but Matty Storton hit back for Wakefield on ten minutes and a Max Jowitt penalty had it level at 6-6 by the 23rd. That's as close as it got. From there Wigan ran off four tries without reply, Noah Hodkinson and Oliver Partington doing the damage, and by half-time the contest was already beyond Wakefield in all but name.

The second half wasn't a levelling-off, it was an acceleration. Hodkinson finished with four tries on the day, adding two more after the break to go with his first-half brace, and Jake Wardle and Zach Eckersley chimed in either side of that. Tom Johnstone gave the home crowd something to cheer with a try in the 64th minute, but by then it was 6-42 and academic. Farrell's second, in the 76th, was just the final word.

The gap in the collision stats tells you why Wakefield never laid a hand on it. Wigan ran for 1,354 metres to Wakefield's 1,047, but the real separator was what they did with the ball in hand: 11 line breaks to 2, and 45 tackle busts to 23. That's not a team grinding out field position, that's a team running through arm tackles at will. Errors were dead even at 9 apiece, and Wigan even gave away more penalties, 5 to Wakefield's 6, so this wasn't won on discipline. It was won on footwork and go-forward.

That's what makes it a genuinely awkward one for the model. Alphr had Wakefield Trinity favourites at 62%, backed by home form (three wins from five, average margin plus 6) and a hooker rating of 1,120 that dwarfed Wigan's 600. The pre-match read had Wakefield winning by 8 in a 35-point game. Instead Wigan won by 38 in a 58-point shootout, a swing of 46 points on the margin alone. Both picks missed.

Wakefield's individual form lines read well coming in, better run metres than Wigan over their last five (1,227 to 1,104) and a positive average margin against Wigan's negative one. None of it showed up on the day. Their halves rating of 793 against Wigan's 849 turned out to be the more honest number, and once Wigan's outside backs got room to move, Wakefield's edge in the backline ratings on paper counted for nothing.

Wins and misses, all of it. This one's filed firmly under misses, and the scoreboard doesn't leave much room for argument.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,047 | Run metres | **1,354** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **11** |
| 23 | Tackle busts | **45** |
| **11** | Offloads | 10 |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 9 |
| 1/3 | Goals | 6/9 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Wigan Warriors defied the model's 62% prediction for Wakefield Trinity, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.0 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 58 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 35. Wigan Warriors led 6–20 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. A tough result for the model, all 2 picks missed on this one.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 6 · Wigan Warriors 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 61.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — model probability 61.6% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — model probability 61.6% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 8 · Predicted total: 35

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wakefield Trinity are the call at 62%, but Wigan Warriors stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 35 ELO points clear, 1638 to 1603.

Wakefield Trinity own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 8.0, with the two sides combining for about 35. Lean Wakefield Trinity, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.8pts |
| 6.0pts | Avg Margin | -1.4pts |
| 1227.2m | Run Metres | 1104.6m |
| 6.0 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 306.2 | Tackles | 319.2 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R9 L · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 W | 28.0 |
| Wigan Warriors | R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 L · R13 W | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Wigan Warriors | 26 – 12 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R23 | Wigan Warriors | 44 – 2 | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2025 | R15 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 10 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2023 | R18 | Wakefield Trinity | 27 – 26 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2023 | R10 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 6 | Wakefield Trinity |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.77 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Pratt, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.69 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 2nd there (0.77 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.46/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.62/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1.69/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.62/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.92/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.77/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.69/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 5 | 11 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 133m/g | 91m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 80% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 39 · 23 | 41 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 445m/g | 507m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 13.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 80.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 6 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 331m/g | 410m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.27) -11% · Halfbacks 0.14/g (lg 0.19) -26%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Fullbacks 0.39/g (lg 0.25) +56% · Centres 0.59/g (lg 0.48) +23% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 5/14g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Jayden Myers | WG | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 6/15g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Seth Nikotemo | CE | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/15g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 6 in 5g | 9/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·4·0) | 8/16g | 8/14g | 44% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/15g | 3/13g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 1/18g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tyson Smoothy | HK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Storton | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/12g | 2/12g | 10% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/14g | 2/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Caius Faatili | INT | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·1·0) | 1/2g | 9/18g | 23% | — | — |
| 16 | Tray Lolesio | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Will Tate | INT | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·3·1·2·0·0·2) | 2/2g | 5/3g | 43% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·0·2·2·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 8/7g | 1/1g | 58% | — | — |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 12 in 12g | 9/10g (1·2·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 60% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/4g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 3/10g | 0/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 5 | Noah Hodkinson | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 27' 34' 47' 56' |
| 6 | Jack Farrimond | 5/8 | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 41% | — | — |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/13g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Ethan Havard | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley O'neill | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/18g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 4' 76' |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 14 | Bevan French | INT | 4 in 4g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·2·0·1·1·1·1) | 12/10g | 0/1g | 60% | — | — |
| 15 | Kaide Ellis | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Patrick Mago | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1638 · Wigan Warriors 1603 · ELO difference: 35 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 35 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2026-r14-wakefield-trinity-v-wigan-warriors
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)