# Toulouse Olympique v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Toulouse Olympique 24 – 48 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos trample Toulouse Olympique._

Half time: 6 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Toulouse Olympique 16% / Leeds Rhinos 84% · Stade Ernest Wallon · Sat, 13 June, 03:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Toulouse Olympique: Thomas Lacans (39'), Luke Polselli (40'), Thomas Lacans (47'), Benjamin Laguerre (52') · Leeds Rhinos: Brodie Croft (2' 1st), Maika Sivo (16'), Harry Newman (21'), Fergus McCormack (29'), Harry Newman (33'), Maika Sivo (60'), Chris Hankinson (72'), Cameron Smith (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 84% | Won |
| Toulouse Olympique | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Toulouse Olympique vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 14 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 June 2026, 01:35 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 08:12 pm_

Toulouse Olympique 24–48 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 14 at Stade Ernest Wallon. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos won 48-24 at Stade Ernest Wallon, and on the scoreboard alone this reads like a hiding. Look at the second half in isolation and it wasn't. Toulouse Olympique were dead level with Leeds after the break, 18 points apiece, and it was the opening forty minutes that decided everything.

That first half was as one-sided as the final margin suggests. Leeds led 30-6 at the break, and they built it in bursts: Brodie Croft in at the 2nd minute, then a run of four more tries between the 16th and 35th minutes through Maika Sivo, Harry Newman, Fergus McCormack and Newman again. By the 35th minute it was 0-30 and the contest looked done. Toulouse got a foothold right on half-time through Thomas Lacans, but by then the damage was long since banked.

Toulouse actually played a decent second half. Lacans grabbed his second, Luke Polselli and Benjamin Laguerre both crossed, and for a stretch between the 39th and 54th minutes they outscored Leeds 18-0 and dragged it back to 24-30. Leeds shut that down with tries to Sivo, Chris Hankinson and Cameron Smith from the 60th minute on, and Jake Connor didn't miss a conversion all night.

The stat sheet backs up the shape of it. Toulouse were the tidier side, 10 errors to 12, and actually had the edge in line breaks, 6 to 4. That's a side that found gaps. What they didn't have was field position or go-forward: Leeds ran for 1,237 metres to Toulouse's 1,001, doubled them up on tackle busts, 34 to 22, and offloaded more too, 8 to 5. Toulouse also handed back six penalties to Leeds' two, which is not what you want against a team that clinical off the tee.

Individually it's Newman and Sivo doing the damage with two tries apiece, McCormack, Hankinson, Smith and Croft chipping in one each, an eight-try haul spread through the side. For Toulouse, Lacans' double was the highlight in a losing effort, with Polselli and Laguerre adding one apiece.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the sheet beforehand. Leeds came in with the stronger forward pack, 1012 to 770, a big edge in the halves, 1193 to 927, and had won four of their last five compared to Toulouse's two. Toulouse's one clear advantage on paper was at hooker, 1198 to 600, and it showed in patches, just not enough to change the outcome.

Alphr's model had Leeds at 84 percent to win with a 14-point margin and a combined total of 43. The lean was right, the shape wasn't quite: the actual margin blew out to 24 and the game produced 72 points, 29 more than forecast. Both picks landed, even if the final scoreline ran hotter than the model expected. Toulouse's second-half fightback was real, it just came from too far behind to matter.

**Key Match Stats**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1,001 | Run metres | **1,237** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 22 | Tackle busts | **34** |
| 5 | Offloads | **8** |
| **10** | Errors | 12 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 8 |
| 4/4 | Goals | 8/8 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 10 | Errors | 12 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 84% probability. The predicted margin of 14.0 was reasonable against the actual 24-point result. The game's 72 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 43. A clean sweep, all 2 model picks hit for this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (31/100) — penalties Toulouse Olympique 6 · Leeds Rhinos 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 84.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — model probability 84.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — model probability 84.4% — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 14 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 84% to see off Toulouse Olympique. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 329 ELO points clear, 1712 to 1383. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Toulouse Olympique.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 14.0, with the two sides combining for about 43. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Toulouse Olympique | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 33.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 13.2pts |
| -1.6pts | Avg Margin | 20.0pts |
| 1208.0m | Run Metres | 1359.8m |
| 4.4 | Clean Breaks | 6.8 |
| 342.6 | Tackles | 276.6 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Olympique | R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W | 19.2 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R12 W · R13 W | 33.2 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Leeds Rhinos lead 2-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Leeds Rhinos | 46 – 0 | Toulouse Olympique |
| 2022 | R19 | Toulouse Olympique | 20 – 6 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2022 | R10 | Leeds Rhinos | 25 – 14 | Toulouse Olympique |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (14 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Toulouse Olympique's best path is the left edge: Super League's 10th-ranked left edge attack (0.85 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 7th there (0.85 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.46 tries/game) runs at a Toulouse Olympique defence ranked 11th there (1.31 conceded/game). Key man: Sivo, 20 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Toulouse Olympique | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.54/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.54/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.85/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.08/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.54/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.54/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.15/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 11th (weak)) | 2.46/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.62/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 3 | 17 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 132m/g | 140m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 91.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 34 | 34 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 556m/g | 331m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.6/g | 11.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.5% | 86.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Toulouse Olympique | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 9 | 13 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 294m/g | 342m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 94% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.06) +17% · Fullbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.25) -16% · Halfbacks 0.15/g (lg 0.19) -21%
**Who scores on Toulouse Olympique** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.06) +150% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.48) +92% · Wingers 1.62/g (lg 0.97) +67%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Ernest Wallon. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Toulouse Olympique** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Rouge | FB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Ulberg | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 33% | — | — |
| 3 | Ethan Quai | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 4 | Luke Polselli | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 18% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 5 | Benjamin Laguerre | WG | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 6 | Jake Shorrocks | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Thomas Lacans | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 13% | — | 🏉 39' 47' |
| 8 | James Roumanos | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Brendan Hands | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Robert Butler | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Henry O'Kane | 2R | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 12 | Mathieu Jussaume | 2R | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 32% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Cator | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Anthony Marion | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | John Toleafoa | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ajahni Wallace | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fergus McCormack | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 2 | Maika Sivo | WG | 20 in 12g | 14/10g (3·0·3·0·1·1·3·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 82% | — | 🏉 16' 60' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 21' 33' |
| 4 | Ashley Handley | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 14 in 12g | 12/10g (2·1·1·0·4·1·2·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 46% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Christopher Hankinson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 72' |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Kallum Watkins | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Danny Levi | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 5 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Presley Cassell | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Cameron Smith | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 75' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Toulouse Olympique 1383 · Leeds Rhinos 1712 · ELO difference: 329 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 84%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 10:12 UTC (latest tip update)